Results

Since Donald Trump is officially the president and almost all results are official (except Michigan where it not clear if the changes discovered in the recount will change the official tally) I am posting about how well I did.

My model: 88%

Wrong in Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Ohio,

My personal prediction: 90%

Wrong in Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania,

Five Thirty Eight: (taken on Saturday) 92%

Wrong in Nevada, Michigan,  Wisconsin, Pennsylvania

Five Thirty Eight Final: 88%

Wrong in Florida, Michigan,  Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina

Princeton Election Consortium: (taken on Saturday) 90%

Wrong in Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania

Note: there was no call in Iowa on Saturday, but the final call was a Trump win so I am considering that call correct.  The final call is identical

New York Times Upshot- 90%

Wrong in Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania
Upshot did not have a final prediction.

Real Clear Politics (Both final and Saturday) 88%

Wrong in  Florida, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania

I also ran my model for 2008 and 2012 and it matched the Five Thirty Eight predictions for the winners.  I was 93.58% as accurate as Five Thirty at predicting means (using root mean square error).  

Considering the success of other models, I did relatively well.  The core ideas behind my project appear to be solid.  My predictions were highly competitive with compared to models created by organizations that had far more resources than I did.  I look forward to 2018, where I plan to predict the senate races.


This will be the final blog post.   I will continue  posting about statistics in our everyday lives at balexanderstatistics.com