March 22 Call

There are two states with republican elections on March 22: Arizona and Utah. Arizona has a winner-take all system with no minimum to win all the delegates.  Utah is proportional but if a candidate has a majority that person will take all the delegates.  I will break down the dynamics for both the states.


Arizona

Model - Nevada Results and an Arizona poll

The results from Florida and Nevada show that it is likely Trump will win because of the fact that the Rubio vote will be split between Kasich and Cruz. Since the poll data is limited and before Rubio's campaign suspension, I decided to use a rough 0.1/0.7/0.2 (Trump, Cruz, Kasich) split of Rubio's poll numbers.  The lack of applicable poll data has been a struggle in recent contests in some states.  Trump has a advantage because of his strong immigration stance that should help him win over voters who fear the competition by immigrants.  Cruz should do well but not well enough to win.  Kasich may win over  Hispanic voters but they don't make a huge part of  the republican party in this state.

Results:

1.Trump 69 Delegates 0.464 +/- 0.0308
2. Cruz .394 +/- 0.0301
3. Kasich 0.141 +/- 0.0215


Utah

Model - Idaho results and a Utah poll

Utah has a high Mormon population which according to exit polls from Idaho supported Rubio or Cruz in high numbers.  Since Mitt Romney endorsed Cruz this will influence a large number of Mormon voters who represent most of the republican electorate in Utah. Therefore, most of the Rubio support should go to Cruz given the Romney endorsement and Cruz should reach a majority of the vote and win all of the delegates..


Results:

1. Cruz 40 Delegates 0.633 +/- 0.0552
2. Trump 0.288 +/- 0.0518
3.  Kasich 0.0794 +/- 0.0310

March 15 Call

This  group of states includes winner-takes-all and hybrid states.  The dynamics of this kind of system will affect the voting results.   Rubio is basically saying that his supporters in Ohio should vote for Kaisch to prevent Trump from getting those delegates. Others are telling Kasich supporters in Florida to vote for Rubio to prevent Trump from getting those delegates. I think Rubio has recovered from his "name calling" debate.  Cruz should do well in Missouri.

Delegate Allocation Rules

Ohio and Florida - Winner Takes All. Highest number of votes wins all the delegates.  

  

Missouri, Illinois, North Carolina - The RNC delegates are unpledged.  In North Carolina it is proportional with no lower limit.  In Illinois the winner gets the 12 winner take all delegates and the winner in each of congressional districts will take the 3 delegates of that district.  In Missouri the winner gets 9 delegates and the winner of each district gets 5 delegates for that district. 

What this day means to all the Candidates.

Donald Trump

Mathematically Trump can't win it on Tuesday but he can make it much harder for any other candidates to get the nomination. After March 15th Trump will likely have more delegates than all the other candidates combined and it will be hard to avoid a Trump nomination.  Even if he doesn't get the 1237 delegates needed for nomination he will probably have the most delegates by a large margin and will likely be the best choice for the GOP since they can't afford to alienate those voters. 

Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz won't win Florida or Ohio but he will likely win Missouri and get the highest proprtion of those delegates. He should get delegates in North Carolina and delegates from a few districts in Illinois.  Most of the conservative evangelical heavy states will have voted by Tuesday, but he can get a few delegates in proportional states and states that use other methods. 

Marco Rubio

Rubio is a middle-ground candidate that has a diverse field of supporters. He should win in Florida because of momentum from the debate in his home state and a change in dynamics since Georgia, which is the model state for Florida. In other states he won't perform as well because he is not the frontrunner and the rules for delegate allocation do not favor him. 

John Kasich

Kasich should win in Ohio because of his performance in Michigan and his hometown advantage.  Looking forward to other states he has a chance to win in the future blue states or swing states. 

State Calls

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Florida

The home field advantage should help Rubio and his strong debate performance on Thursday should help him clinch the win.  I used Florida polls and Georgia results for this call.

1. Rubio 99 Delegates 0.364 +/- 0.0152

2. Trump 0.362 +/-  0.0152

3. Cruz 0.205 +/- 0.0127

4. Kasich 0.0685 +/- 0.00801

Ohio

The home field advantage and Rubio's move to tell his supports to vote Kasich in Ohio to prevent a Trump victory should help Kasich.  I used Ohio polls and the results for Michigan.

1. Kasich 72 Delegates 0.446+/- 0.0199

2. Trump  0.292 +/- 0.0182

3. Cruz 0.152 +/- 0.0144

4. Rubio 0.111 +/- 0.126

North Carolina

The delegates are basically proportional and I used a North Carolina poll and Virginia results. 

1. Trump 29 Delegates 0.376 +/- 0.0257

2. Rubio 23 Delegates 0.330 +/- 0.0249

3. Cruz 14 Delegates 0.199 +/- 0.0212

4. Kasich 6 Delegates 0.094 +/- 0.0155

Illinois

I used Illinois polls and Michigan results.  Based on 2012 results and 2008 results I think Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio can get votes in places where similar candidates had a strong lead. 

1. Trump 39 Delegates 0.435 +/- 0.0312

2. Cruz 12 Delegates 0.287 +/- 0.0285

3. Kasich 12 Delegates 0.176 +/- 0.0240

4. Rubio 3 Delegates 0.101 +/- 0.0190

Missouri

Cruz should easily win Missouri. Similar to the  method I used for Illinois I checked past results and polling trends to find districts that Rubio, Trump and Kasich can win. 

1. Cruz 34 Delegates 0.441 +/-  0.0688

2. Trump 5 Delegates 0.213 +/- 0.0568

3. Rubio 5 Delegates 0.196 +/- 0.0551

4. Kasich 5 Delegates 0.150 +/- 0.0495

March 8 GOP

Summary

Trump should do pretty good given his history and should win every state.   Cruz should be a strong  second in all of the states besides Hawaii where he should be third. Rubio and Kaisch are honestly getting to a point where only one of them can stay in.  Idaho because of its high Mormon population should be very good for both Cruz and Rubio who based on certain precincts in Nevada did very well with Mormons.


The States:

Michigan 15% Cutoff 59 Delegates,  Used Michigan poll and Massachusetts results.

1. Trump 28 Delegates 0.402 +/-  0.0270
2. Cruz 17 Delegates 0.255 +/- 0.0240
3. Rubio 14 Delegates 0.208 +/- 0.0223
4. Kaisch 0.135 +/- 0.0188

Mississippi  15% Cutoff 40 Delegates.  Used Alabama results and Mississippi poll

1.Trump 21 Delegates 0.452 +/- 0.0459
2. Cruz 19 Delegates 0.390 +/- 0.0450
3. Rubio 0.0962 +/- 0.0450
4. Kaisch 0.0617 +/- 0,0222

Idaho  20% Cutoff 32 Delegates .  Used  Minnesota results and the final Des Moines Register poll from Iowa
1. Rubio 12 Delegates 0.337 +/- 0.0385
2. Cruz 11 Delegates 0.310 +/- 0.0377
3. Trump 9 Delegates 0.267 +/- 0.03604
4.  Kaisch 0.0864 +/- 0.022907



Hawaii No cutoff , 19 Delegates.  Used Massachusetts results and polls

1.  Trump 10 Delegates 0.512 +/- 0.0494
2. Kaisch 4 Delegates 0.217 +/- 0.0408
3. Rubio 3 Delegates 0.148 +/- 0.0351
4. Cruz 2 Delegates 0,122 +/- 0.0325


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March 5 GOP Call

There are 4 states either with primaries or caucuses on March 1.  The races will be called with a March 1 state as the hypothesis probability and B as the a poll from that or a very similar state.
For the purposes of this call I am including Ben Carson because he has not officially quit and I think some of his supporters will be confused and still vote.

Candidate Summaries:

Trump
Trump did win the most states so  far but by Sunday Cruz/Rubio combined should have more delegates than him.  Considering I think you could cap him at 35%-40% it may not be detrimental to not nominate him in a brokered convention because a lot of republicans and independents will not either vote for Trump or vote at all if he is nominated making it a catch-22 scenario.

Cruz
March 8 is the end of the states Cruz will have a pretty good finish because the rest of the calendar after that is mostly blue or swing states. It actually may be logical for him to drop out after March 8 and endorse Rubio to prevent  a Trump  nomination.


Rubio
Rubio should do well in Maine and decent in the other states.  I would look forward to the later contests with blue states where he really will shine.


Kaisch
Although he did get a strong second in Vermont, I don't think he can take Ohio and if he doesn't want Trump as a president he should drop out.  His draw is very limited to strong blue states.


Carson
Carson needs to officially drop out considering he got only a small handful of delegates on super tuesday. I am doing my analysis with him because he hasn't dropped out and I don't think a lot of his supporters know he isn't really campaigning anymore.



States:



Maine: Vermont results, and a poll from Vermont, Delegate Cutoff - 10%
1. Trump 9 Delegates 0.35848 +/- 0.07805
2. Kaisch 7 Delegates 0.29232 +/- 0.07403
3.Rubio 5 Delegates 0.10385 +/- 0.04965
4.Cruz 2 Delegates 0.19901 +/- 0.06498
5. Carson 0.04635 +/- 0.03422


Louisiana: Alabama results, Georgia poll, Delegate Cutoff -20%
1. Trump 16 Delegates 0.32034 +/- 0.04009
2. Cruz 15 Delegates 0.29655 +/- 0.03924
3. Rubio 15 Delegates 0.28982 +/- 0.03897
4. Carson 0.05731 +/- 0.01997
5. Kaisch 0.03598 +/- 0.016

Kentucky: Tennessee results, Georgia poll.  Delegate Cutoff- 5%
1. Trump 24 delegates 0.50602 +/- 0.04295
2. Rubio 10 delegates 0.20445 +/- 0.03465
3. Cruz 8 delegates 0.16896 +/- 0.03219
4.Carson 4 delegates 0.08414  +/- 0.02385
5. Kaisch 0.03643 +/- 0.01609

Kansas:Arkansas result, Georgia poll. Delegate Cutoff - 10%
1. Cruz 15 delegates 0.3383 +/- 0.0406
2. Trump 15 delegates 0.3343 +/- 0.0405
3. Rubio 10 delegates 0.2251 +/- 0.0359
4. Carson 0.0515 +/- 0.019
5. Kaich 0.0509 +/- 0.0189