March 1 Call GOP

For multistate days I will talk about my decisions and the candidates in general and post rankings and delegate counts with ranges.
I am going to block this up into three groups - Texas, The "SEC" primary  (Oklahoma, Arkansas, Georgia, Virgina, Alabama, Tennessee, Alaska), and the more liberal states (Vermont, Massachussets, and Minnesota).  Texas was based on South Carolina and polls, the SEC states were based on Geogria polls and South Carolina, and the more liberal states from New Hampshire and the polls from all of the states in the group.

Texas deserves it own group because it is the largest number of delegates up from grabs and it has a more unique set of factors since it is the home state of one of the candidates.  Cruz will do good in Texas because he is a native and a well liked senator among the Republican party.  Rubio will also do good, and get close to Trump but not beating him.


The "SEC" primary group is currently favoring Rubio for the second place spot since the bush  dropout.  Cruz will be a strong third in most of these states.  The Rubio and Cruz share will take up more percentage and delegates than the Trump share. In Arkansas due to demographics I think Cruz will get second.  In Oklahoma Cruz will win because of the high white evangelical population, and Trump will take second.


The more liberal states will be similar to New Hampshire but Rubio will beat Kaisch and Cruz will narrowly edge out Kaisch. Honestly I think a very crowded moderate field is what enabled Kaisch to get second because Rubio and Bush share a lot of voters.


In general  the Non-trump share will receive more delegates than Trump.  If they are smart and logical Kaisch and Carson will dropout.  Rubio and Cruz who seem to be teaming up might have one of them (probably Cruz) dropout before March 15th to enable a defense against Trump.



For the States:

Texas 155 Delegates. 20% to Qualify for Delegates

1. Cruz - 72 Delegates .427467 +/- .016406
2.  Trump - 45 Delegates .2633232 +/- .015322
3. Rubio 38 Delegates .22485 +/- .01392
4.  Carson 0.044213 +/- .00736
5.  Kaisch 0.040146 +/- .008082


Oklahoma 43 Delegates 15% to qualify for delegates
1.  Trump 0.313876 +/- 0.17134
2. Cruz .0299588 +/- .017542
3.  Rubio 0.294661 +/- .01514
4.Carson 0.05345 +/- 0.008005
5. Kaisch 0.038424 +/- 0.008791

Alaska 28 Delegates 15% to qualify
1. Trump 15 Delegates 0.494658 +/- 0.017896
2. Cruz 7 Delegates, .222715 +/- 0.15073
3. Rubio 6 Delegates .176836+/-.015385
4. Carson .0590 +/- 0.0102
5. Kaisch 0.468 +/- 0.0103

Arkansas 40 Delegates 15% to qualify
1. Trump 16 Delegates .325 +/- 0.0176
2. Cruz 13 Delegates .263 +/- 0.0157
3. Rubio 11 Delegates 0.218 +/-0.0154
4. Carson 0.1265 +/- 0.0101
5. Kaisch  0.0683 +/- 0.0103


Georgia 76 Delegates 20% to qualify
1. Trump 29 Delegates 0.300 +/- 0.0179
2. Rubio 24 Delegates 0.247 +/- 0.0153
3. Cruz 21 Delegates 0.236 +/- 0.0150
4. Kaisch 0.132 +/- 0.0103
5. Carson 0.0848 +/- 0.0102

Massachusetts 42 Delegates 5% to qualify
1. Trump 18 Delegates 0.408 +/- 0.044137
2. Rubio 11 Delegates 0.263 +/- 0.03561
3. Cruz 8 Delegates 0.183 +/- 0.0361
4. Kaisch 5 Delegates 0.11685 +/- 0.0261
5. Carson 0.0278 +/- 0.0249

Minnesota 38 Delegates 10% to qualify
1. Trump 16 Delegates 0.387 +/- 0.0441
2. Rubio 9 Delegates 0.239 +/- 0.0348
3. Cruz 8 Delegates 0.191 +/- 0.0361
4. Kaisch 5 Delegates 0.127 +/- 0.0261
5. Carson 0.055693 +/- 0.0261

Tennessee 58 Delegates 20% to qualify
1. Trump 31 Delegates 0.463 +/- 0.00895
2. Rubio 14 Delegates 0.207 +/- 0.007692
3. Cruz 13 Delegates 0.199 +/- 0.0151
4. Kasich 0.0704 +/- 0.0103
5. Carson 0.0603 +/- 0.0102

Vermont 16 Delegates 20% to qualify
1. Trump 8 Delegates 0.392 +/- 0.044
2. Rubio 5 Delegates 0.234+/- 0.0364
3. Cruz 4 Delegates 0.207+/- 0.035437
4. Kaisch 0.0978 +/- 0.0279
5. Carson 0.069976 +/- 0.0249

Virgina 49 Delegates No qualification rules
1. Trump 16 Delegates 0.327 +/- 0.017896
2. Rubio 11 Delegates 0.229  +/- 0.007537
3. Cruz 11 Delegates 0.219 +/- 0.0151
4. Kaisch 6 Delegates 0.123 +/- 0.010
5. Carson 5 Delegates 0.0105 +/- 0.0102

Alabama 50 Delegates 20% to qualify
1, Trump 22 Delegates 0.358 +/- 0.00894
2. Rubio 14 Delegates 0.251 +/- 0.0153
3. Cruz 14 Delegates 0.195 +/- 0.0151
4. Kaisch 0.134902 +/- 0.0103
5. Carson 0.0604 +/- 0.0102