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Disclaimer: While I am a paid undergraduate researcher for Texas Tech University, the opinions expressed on this blog are my own. The statements on this blog are not endorsements of views of Texas Tech University, The Honors College of Texas Tech University, or the math department of Texas Tech University, or any other department or campus organization of Texas Tech University.

Thursday, March 3, 2016

March 5 GOP Call

There are 4 states either with primaries or caucuses on March 1.  The races will be called with a March 1 state as the hypothesis probability and B as the a poll from that or a very similar state.
For the purposes of this call I am including Ben Carson because he has not officially quit and I think some of his supporters will be confused and still vote.

Candidate Summaries:

Trump
Trump did win the most states so  far but by Sunday Cruz/Rubio combined should have more delegates than him.  Considering I think you could cap him at 35%-40% it may not be detrimental to not nominate him in a brokered convention because a lot of republicans and independents will not either vote for Trump or vote at all if he is nominated making it a catch-22 scenario.

Cruz
March 8 is the end of the states Cruz will have a pretty good finish because the rest of the calendar after that is mostly blue or swing states. It actually may be logical for him to drop out after March 8 and endorse Rubio to prevent  a Trump  nomination.


Rubio
Rubio should do well in Maine and decent in the other states.  I would look forward to the later contests with blue states where he really will shine.


Kaisch
Although he did get a strong second in Vermont, I don't think he can take Ohio and if he doesn't want Trump as a president he should drop out.  His draw is very limited to strong blue states.


Carson
Carson needs to officially drop out considering he got only a small handful of delegates on super tuesday. I am doing my analysis with him because he hasn't dropped out and I don't think a lot of his supporters know he isn't really campaigning anymore.



States:



Maine: Vermont results, and a poll from Vermont, Delegate Cutoff - 10%
1. Trump 9 Delegates 0.35848 +/- 0.07805
2. Kaisch 7 Delegates 0.29232 +/- 0.07403
3.Rubio 5 Delegates 0.10385 +/- 0.04965
4.Cruz 2 Delegates 0.19901 +/- 0.06498
5. Carson 0.04635 +/- 0.03422


Louisiana: Alabama results, Georgia poll, Delegate Cutoff -20%
1. Trump 16 Delegates 0.32034 +/- 0.04009
2. Cruz 15 Delegates 0.29655 +/- 0.03924
3. Rubio 15 Delegates 0.28982 +/- 0.03897
4. Carson 0.05731 +/- 0.01997
5. Kaisch 0.03598 +/- 0.016

Kentucky: Tennessee results, Georgia poll.  Delegate Cutoff- 5%
1. Trump 24 delegates 0.50602 +/- 0.04295
2. Rubio 10 delegates 0.20445 +/- 0.03465
3. Cruz 8 delegates 0.16896 +/- 0.03219
4.Carson 4 delegates 0.08414  +/- 0.02385
5. Kaisch 0.03643 +/- 0.01609

Kansas:Arkansas result, Georgia poll. Delegate Cutoff - 10%
1. Cruz 15 delegates 0.3383 +/- 0.0406
2. Trump 15 delegates 0.3343 +/- 0.0405
3. Rubio 10 delegates 0.2251 +/- 0.0359
4. Carson 0.0515 +/- 0.019
5. Kaich 0.0509 +/- 0.0189

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