March 5 GOP Call

There are 4 states either with primaries or caucuses on March 1.  The races will be called with a March 1 state as the hypothesis probability and B as the a poll from that or a very similar state.
For the purposes of this call I am including Ben Carson because he has not officially quit and I think some of his supporters will be confused and still vote.

Candidate Summaries:

Trump
Trump did win the most states so  far but by Sunday Cruz/Rubio combined should have more delegates than him.  Considering I think you could cap him at 35%-40% it may not be detrimental to not nominate him in a brokered convention because a lot of republicans and independents will not either vote for Trump or vote at all if he is nominated making it a catch-22 scenario.

Cruz
March 8 is the end of the states Cruz will have a pretty good finish because the rest of the calendar after that is mostly blue or swing states. It actually may be logical for him to drop out after March 8 and endorse Rubio to prevent  a Trump  nomination.


Rubio
Rubio should do well in Maine and decent in the other states.  I would look forward to the later contests with blue states where he really will shine.


Kaisch
Although he did get a strong second in Vermont, I don't think he can take Ohio and if he doesn't want Trump as a president he should drop out.  His draw is very limited to strong blue states.


Carson
Carson needs to officially drop out considering he got only a small handful of delegates on super tuesday. I am doing my analysis with him because he hasn't dropped out and I don't think a lot of his supporters know he isn't really campaigning anymore.



States:



Maine: Vermont results, and a poll from Vermont, Delegate Cutoff - 10%
1. Trump 9 Delegates 0.35848 +/- 0.07805
2. Kaisch 7 Delegates 0.29232 +/- 0.07403
3.Rubio 5 Delegates 0.10385 +/- 0.04965
4.Cruz 2 Delegates 0.19901 +/- 0.06498
5. Carson 0.04635 +/- 0.03422


Louisiana: Alabama results, Georgia poll, Delegate Cutoff -20%
1. Trump 16 Delegates 0.32034 +/- 0.04009
2. Cruz 15 Delegates 0.29655 +/- 0.03924
3. Rubio 15 Delegates 0.28982 +/- 0.03897
4. Carson 0.05731 +/- 0.01997
5. Kaisch 0.03598 +/- 0.016

Kentucky: Tennessee results, Georgia poll.  Delegate Cutoff- 5%
1. Trump 24 delegates 0.50602 +/- 0.04295
2. Rubio 10 delegates 0.20445 +/- 0.03465
3. Cruz 8 delegates 0.16896 +/- 0.03219
4.Carson 4 delegates 0.08414  +/- 0.02385
5. Kaisch 0.03643 +/- 0.01609

Kansas:Arkansas result, Georgia poll. Delegate Cutoff - 10%
1. Cruz 15 delegates 0.3383 +/- 0.0406
2. Trump 15 delegates 0.3343 +/- 0.0405
3. Rubio 10 delegates 0.2251 +/- 0.0359
4. Carson 0.0515 +/- 0.019
5. Kaich 0.0509 +/- 0.0189