The states for Tuesday are very similar to New York and I used the New York results and poll data from each state (except Rhode Island which used Delaware polling). Trump should win every state since they are low turnout blue states which allows Trump to win all the states, but not necessarily all the delegates. Whether or not Trump reaches a majority on the first ballot is still a little to variable for me to make a definite call on the nomination. The only thing I know about a contested convention is that it will probably get messy and unpredictable. Kasich should come in second in most states because most conservatives in blue states vote for Trump. All of these states should have very similar outcomes because they have very similar demographics.
Delaware
Winner-Take-All
1. Trump
16 Delegates
0.582 +/- 0.0299
2. Kasich
0.2232 +/- 0.211
3. Cruz
0.195 +/- 0.0261
Connecticut
13 - At-Large awarded proportionally (winner takes all if over 50%)
15- from winner of 5 congressional districts
1. Trump
13 - At- Large , 15 Congressional Delegates, 28 total
0.542 +/- 0.0286
2. Kasich
0.274 +/- 0.0257
3. Cruz
0.184 +/- 0.204
Maryland
14 Winner-Take-All
24 from 8 Congressional Districts
1. Trump
14 from At-Large, 21 from 7 Congressional districts
0.464 +/- 0.04
2. Kasich
3 Delegates from 1 Congressional Districts
0.300+0.0274
3. Cruz
0.235 +/- 0.0376
Pennsylvania
17 Bound Winner-Take-All
54 Unbound elected delegates (no preference indictated on ballot)
I am not predicting the unbound delegates.
1. Trump
17 Bound Delegates
0.552 +/- 0.0402
2. Cruz
.315 +/- 0.0376
3. Kasich
0.132 +/- 0.0274
Rhode Island
13 At-Large awarded proportionally and 6 delegates awarded proportionally in 2 congressional districts
1. Trump
0.621 +/- 0.0301
10 Delegates ( 7 At-Large, 3 Congressional District)
2. Cruz
0.240 +/- 0.0265
4 Delegates (2 At-Large, 2 Congressional District)
3. Kasich
0.139 +/- 0.0214
3 Delegates (2 At-Large, 1 Congressional District)
Sunday, April 24, 2016
Sunday, April 17, 2016
New York GOP Call
New York has 95 delegates and is awarded by congressional district and with some delegates awarded proportionally (with a 50% trigger to get all the 14 at-large delegates).
New York Polling with Arizona Results
1. Donald Trump
92 Delegates (14 winner take all , 78 from 26 congressional districts)
0.650 +/- 0.0166
Donald Trump should do very well in his home state. I think he should win most of the districts. He will get over 50% and capture all the at-large delegates. It looks like Trump should get the nomination on the first ballot. But it depends on what the GOP rules committee decides on the the nomination rules. If Trump is a single delegate short of a majority then anything could happen.
2. Ted Cruz
3 Delegates (1 congressional district)
0.179 +/- 0.0133
Cruz may be able to pick up a district in a more conservative area like upstate New York but Trump should win the rest of the delegates. Cruz and Kasich are working to basically play defense and work on trying for a brokered convention.
3. John Kasich
0 Delegates
0.171 +/- 0.0131
Kasich's goal is play defense in proportional delegates. I think his presence is more beneficial to the anti-Trump campaign. Kasich will not be the nominee even if the convention goes brokered. Kasich at this point is probably hoping for VP or a high level position in the cabinet.
Note: I had trouble submitting it.
New York Polling with Arizona Results
1. Donald Trump
92 Delegates (14 winner take all , 78 from 26 congressional districts)
0.650 +/- 0.0166
Donald Trump should do very well in his home state. I think he should win most of the districts. He will get over 50% and capture all the at-large delegates. It looks like Trump should get the nomination on the first ballot. But it depends on what the GOP rules committee decides on the the nomination rules. If Trump is a single delegate short of a majority then anything could happen.
2. Ted Cruz
3 Delegates (1 congressional district)
0.179 +/- 0.0133
Cruz may be able to pick up a district in a more conservative area like upstate New York but Trump should win the rest of the delegates. Cruz and Kasich are working to basically play defense and work on trying for a brokered convention.
3. John Kasich
0 Delegates
0.171 +/- 0.0131
Kasich's goal is play defense in proportional delegates. I think his presence is more beneficial to the anti-Trump campaign. Kasich will not be the nominee even if the convention goes brokered. Kasich at this point is probably hoping for VP or a high level position in the cabinet.
Note: I had trouble submitting it.
Sunday, April 3, 2016
Wisconsin GOP Call
Wisconsin is a hybrid state. The winner state-wide gets 3 delegates, the winner in each congressional district gets 3 delegates and the 14 at-large delegates are distributed proportionally.
1. Ted Cruz
0.425+/- 0.0178
Delegates : 3 winner takes all, 6 proportional, and 24 from 8 congressional district
This is a tricky call because Cruz has not won a blue state before but the polls suggest Cruz will win. I think some of the recent Trump events will encourage a high turnout for Cruz. I think I lot of republicans right now hate all their opinions. Cruz has the advantage of being the one non-Trump candidate with a shot of the nomination although his chance of winning the nomination is small. Cruz is beginning to act like Trump and I think is beginning to attract some of Trump's less dedicated supporters and Cruz is working on increasing turnout.
2. Donald Trump
0.330 +/- 0.169
Trump is trying to double down on his strong message to keep his supporters willing to vote and stay in the media. Trump has to say more inflammatory remarks to keep getting media attention. His goal is to cater to a few strong supporters and use them and the generally low primary and caucus turnout rates to get the nomination. Trump knows what to say to get people motivated. He caters to fear and the poll data on the issues. Arguably he has been fighting a war of attrition and that strategy may get him the nomination. Personally I don't think he wants to be president.. He probably wants the publicity more than the presidency. But that is just my opinion.
3. John Kasich
0.245 +/- 0.0155
Delegates: 3 Proportional
Kasich is not going to get the nomination. But he can act as sort of a defense between Trump and the nomination. Kasich can pick up delegates here and there and his delegates if picked correctly will probably only support Trump on the later ballots if Trump is really the only opinion. Kasich's strategy should be to focus on proportional states and to focus on people not attracted to Cruz: more moderate, or more establishment voters. Kasich goal isn't to win but to prevent Trump from winning.
1. Ted Cruz
0.425+/- 0.0178
Delegates : 3 winner takes all, 6 proportional, and 24 from 8 congressional district
This is a tricky call because Cruz has not won a blue state before but the polls suggest Cruz will win. I think some of the recent Trump events will encourage a high turnout for Cruz. I think I lot of republicans right now hate all their opinions. Cruz has the advantage of being the one non-Trump candidate with a shot of the nomination although his chance of winning the nomination is small. Cruz is beginning to act like Trump and I think is beginning to attract some of Trump's less dedicated supporters and Cruz is working on increasing turnout.
2. Donald Trump
0.330 +/- 0.169
Trump is trying to double down on his strong message to keep his supporters willing to vote and stay in the media. Trump has to say more inflammatory remarks to keep getting media attention. His goal is to cater to a few strong supporters and use them and the generally low primary and caucus turnout rates to get the nomination. Trump knows what to say to get people motivated. He caters to fear and the poll data on the issues. Arguably he has been fighting a war of attrition and that strategy may get him the nomination. Personally I don't think he wants to be president.. He probably wants the publicity more than the presidency. But that is just my opinion.
3. John Kasich
0.245 +/- 0.0155
Delegates: 3 Proportional
Kasich is not going to get the nomination. But he can act as sort of a defense between Trump and the nomination. Kasich can pick up delegates here and there and his delegates if picked correctly will probably only support Trump on the later ballots if Trump is really the only opinion. Kasich's strategy should be to focus on proportional states and to focus on people not attracted to Cruz: more moderate, or more establishment voters. Kasich goal isn't to win but to prevent Trump from winning.
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