April 26 GOP Predictions

The states for Tuesday are very similar to  New York and I used the New York results and poll data from each state (except Rhode Island which used Delaware polling). Trump should win every state since they are low turnout blue states which allows Trump to win all the states, but not necessarily all the delegates.  Whether or not Trump reaches a majority on the first ballot is still a little to variable for me to make a definite call on the nomination. The only thing I know about a contested convention is that it will probably get messy and unpredictable.  Kasich should come in second in most states because most conservatives in blue states vote for Trump. All of these states should have very similar outcomes because they have very similar demographics.

Delaware
Winner-Take-All

1. Trump
16 Delegates
0.582 +/- 0.0299

2.  Kasich
0.2232 +/- 0.211

3.  Cruz
0.195 +/- 0.0261


Connecticut
13 - At-Large awarded proportionally (winner takes all if over 50%)
15- from winner of 5 congressional districts

1.  Trump
13 - At- Large , 15 Congressional Delegates,  28 total
0.542 +/- 0.0286

2. Kasich
0.274 +/- 0.0257

3. Cruz
0.184 +/- 0.204


Maryland
14 Winner-Take-All
24 from 8 Congressional Districts

1. Trump
14 from At-Large, 21 from 7 Congressional districts

0.464 +/- 0.04

2.  Kasich
3 Delegates from 1 Congressional Districts
0.300+0.0274

3. Cruz
0.235 +/- 0.0376


Pennsylvania

17 Bound Winner-Take-All
54 Unbound elected delegates (no preference indictated on ballot)
I am not predicting the unbound delegates.

1. Trump
17 Bound Delegates
0.552 +/- 0.0402

2.  Cruz
.315 +/- 0.0376

3.  Kasich
0.132 +/- 0.0274


Rhode Island
13 At-Large awarded proportionally and 6 delegates awarded proportionally in 2 congressional districts

1. Trump
0.621 +/- 0.0301
10 Delegates  ( 7 At-Large, 3 Congressional District)

2.  Cruz
0.240 +/- 0.0265
4 Delegates (2 At-Large,  2  Congressional District)

3.  Kasich
0.139 +/- 0.0214

3 Delegates (2 At-Large, 1 Congressional District)