Wisconsin GOP Call

Wisconsin is a hybrid state. The winner state-wide gets 3 delegates, the winner in each congressional district gets 3 delegates and the 14 at-large delegates are distributed proportionally.

1. Ted Cruz
0.425+/- 0.0178
Delegates :  3 winner takes all,  6 proportional, and 24 from 8 congressional district

This is a tricky call  because Cruz has not won a blue state before but the polls suggest Cruz will win.  I think some of the recent Trump events will encourage a high turnout for Cruz.  I think I lot of republicans right now hate all their opinions. Cruz has the advantage of being the one non-Trump candidate with a shot of the nomination although his chance of winning the nomination  is small.  Cruz is beginning to act like Trump and I think is beginning to attract some of Trump's less dedicated supporters and Cruz is working on increasing turnout.


2. Donald Trump
0.330 +/- 0.169

Trump is trying to double down on his strong message to keep his supporters willing to vote and stay in the media.  Trump has to say more inflammatory remarks  to keep getting media attention. His goal is to cater to a few strong supporters and use them and the generally low primary and caucus turnout rates to get the nomination.  Trump knows what to say to get people motivated. He caters to fear and the poll  data on the issues.  Arguably he has been fighting a war of attrition and that strategy may get him the nomination.  Personally I don't think he wants to be president.. He probably wants the publicity more than the presidency. But that  is just my opinion.

3.  John Kasich
0.245 +/- 0.0155
Delegates:   3 Proportional

Kasich is not going to get the nomination. But he can act as sort of a defense between Trump and the nomination.  Kasich can pick up delegates here and there and his delegates if picked correctly will probably only support Trump on the later ballots if Trump is really the only opinion.  Kasich's strategy should be to focus on proportional states and to focus on people not attracted to Cruz: more moderate, or more establishment voters.  Kasich goal isn't to win but to prevent Trump from winning.