March 1 Call GOP

For multistate days I will talk about my decisions and the candidates in general and post rankings and delegate counts with ranges.
I am going to block this up into three groups - Texas, The "SEC" primary  (Oklahoma, Arkansas, Georgia, Virgina, Alabama, Tennessee, Alaska), and the more liberal states (Vermont, Massachussets, and Minnesota).  Texas was based on South Carolina and polls, the SEC states were based on Geogria polls and South Carolina, and the more liberal states from New Hampshire and the polls from all of the states in the group.

Texas deserves it own group because it is the largest number of delegates up from grabs and it has a more unique set of factors since it is the home state of one of the candidates.  Cruz will do good in Texas because he is a native and a well liked senator among the Republican party.  Rubio will also do good, and get close to Trump but not beating him.


The "SEC" primary group is currently favoring Rubio for the second place spot since the bush  dropout.  Cruz will be a strong third in most of these states.  The Rubio and Cruz share will take up more percentage and delegates than the Trump share. In Arkansas due to demographics I think Cruz will get second.  In Oklahoma Cruz will win because of the high white evangelical population, and Trump will take second.


The more liberal states will be similar to New Hampshire but Rubio will beat Kaisch and Cruz will narrowly edge out Kaisch. Honestly I think a very crowded moderate field is what enabled Kaisch to get second because Rubio and Bush share a lot of voters.


In general  the Non-trump share will receive more delegates than Trump.  If they are smart and logical Kaisch and Carson will dropout.  Rubio and Cruz who seem to be teaming up might have one of them (probably Cruz) dropout before March 15th to enable a defense against Trump.



For the States:

Texas 155 Delegates. 20% to Qualify for Delegates

1. Cruz - 72 Delegates .427467 +/- .016406
2.  Trump - 45 Delegates .2633232 +/- .015322
3. Rubio 38 Delegates .22485 +/- .01392
4.  Carson 0.044213 +/- .00736
5.  Kaisch 0.040146 +/- .008082


Oklahoma 43 Delegates 15% to qualify for delegates
1.  Trump 0.313876 +/- 0.17134
2. Cruz .0299588 +/- .017542
3.  Rubio 0.294661 +/- .01514
4.Carson 0.05345 +/- 0.008005
5. Kaisch 0.038424 +/- 0.008791

Alaska 28 Delegates 15% to qualify
1. Trump 15 Delegates 0.494658 +/- 0.017896
2. Cruz 7 Delegates, .222715 +/- 0.15073
3. Rubio 6 Delegates .176836+/-.015385
4. Carson .0590 +/- 0.0102
5. Kaisch 0.468 +/- 0.0103

Arkansas 40 Delegates 15% to qualify
1. Trump 16 Delegates .325 +/- 0.0176
2. Cruz 13 Delegates .263 +/- 0.0157
3. Rubio 11 Delegates 0.218 +/-0.0154
4. Carson 0.1265 +/- 0.0101
5. Kaisch  0.0683 +/- 0.0103


Georgia 76 Delegates 20% to qualify
1. Trump 29 Delegates 0.300 +/- 0.0179
2. Rubio 24 Delegates 0.247 +/- 0.0153
3. Cruz 21 Delegates 0.236 +/- 0.0150
4. Kaisch 0.132 +/- 0.0103
5. Carson 0.0848 +/- 0.0102

Massachusetts 42 Delegates 5% to qualify
1. Trump 18 Delegates 0.408 +/- 0.044137
2. Rubio 11 Delegates 0.263 +/- 0.03561
3. Cruz 8 Delegates 0.183 +/- 0.0361
4. Kaisch 5 Delegates 0.11685 +/- 0.0261
5. Carson 0.0278 +/- 0.0249

Minnesota 38 Delegates 10% to qualify
1. Trump 16 Delegates 0.387 +/- 0.0441
2. Rubio 9 Delegates 0.239 +/- 0.0348
3. Cruz 8 Delegates 0.191 +/- 0.0361
4. Kaisch 5 Delegates 0.127 +/- 0.0261
5. Carson 0.055693 +/- 0.0261

Tennessee 58 Delegates 20% to qualify
1. Trump 31 Delegates 0.463 +/- 0.00895
2. Rubio 14 Delegates 0.207 +/- 0.007692
3. Cruz 13 Delegates 0.199 +/- 0.0151
4. Kasich 0.0704 +/- 0.0103
5. Carson 0.0603 +/- 0.0102

Vermont 16 Delegates 20% to qualify
1. Trump 8 Delegates 0.392 +/- 0.044
2. Rubio 5 Delegates 0.234+/- 0.0364
3. Cruz 4 Delegates 0.207+/- 0.035437
4. Kaisch 0.0978 +/- 0.0279
5. Carson 0.069976 +/- 0.0249

Virgina 49 Delegates No qualification rules
1. Trump 16 Delegates 0.327 +/- 0.017896
2. Rubio 11 Delegates 0.229  +/- 0.007537
3. Cruz 11 Delegates 0.219 +/- 0.0151
4. Kaisch 6 Delegates 0.123 +/- 0.010
5. Carson 5 Delegates 0.0105 +/- 0.0102

Alabama 50 Delegates 20% to qualify
1, Trump 22 Delegates 0.358 +/- 0.00894
2. Rubio 14 Delegates 0.251 +/- 0.0153
3. Cruz 14 Delegates 0.195 +/- 0.0151
4. Kaisch 0.134902 +/- 0.0103
5. Carson 0.0604 +/- 0.0102

Nevada GOP Call

30 Delegates minimum of 3.33% to qualify


1. Trump
Center 34%
Range-34%-43%
Delegates -10

Trump is an historic under performer at about at the bottom of the range so I am calling him low.

2.  Rubio
Center - 27%
Range - 17-27%
Delegates - 8

With Bush out Rubio expect a bump from the polls, and the second place finish in South Carolina should give him even more momentum.

3. Cruz
Center 21%
Range - 15-25%
Delegates - 7

Cruz should do about as good here as he did in New Hampshire after adjusting for dropouts.

4.  Kasich
Center- 12%
Range - 2.5-15.5
Delegates -3

When a guy with more money and more votes dropouts out  before you that may be a sign your campaign.  I think if he doesn't do well he will quit. Nevada is his last chance.


5. Carson
Center - 6%
Range - 0-12
Delegates - 2

Carson should probably also quit.

South Carolina Predictions GOP

Here are my predictions for the GOP South Carolina Primary:

Note :  The delegate rules for South Carolina are not proportional and the winner (with or without a majority) gets all the at-large delegates and the RNC delegates, and the winner in each district gets the 3 delegates for that district. Ranges reflect a poll of polls and percentage points may be added or subtracted from the average to get 100%.

 50 Delegates at Stake

1. Donald Trump

Delegates - 47

Range - 33.011-37.155

Center - 34%

I would like to remind people that the vast majority of people do not support Trump, and he may not win if he doesn't get the majority and a brokered convention happens.

2. Marco Rubio

Delegates -3 

Range - 14.85-17.149

Center - 19%

The recent endorsement of the governor and the backlash against the Cruz campaign on the photoshopped photo of Obama and Rubio will push him over Ted Cruz slightly. Rubio might win a district that is more moderate giving him three delegates.

3. Ted Cruz

Range - 16.453-20.398

Center - 18%

The bad photoshopped photo won't help him and the fact Cruz does have a lot of endorsements in the state will give Rubio the slight edge. 

4.  John Kasich

Range - 7.464-11.536

Center - 13%

Kasich's surprising second place finish in New Hampshire will bring him momentum  with undecided voters.

 

5.  Jeb Bush

Range - 7.746-10.920

Center -9%

Bush is just not gaining any traction in this crowded field but I don't think he will drop out because he has  the money to make it to the end.

6.  Ben Carson

Range - 4.716-7.450

Center - 7%

Ben Carson will probably drop out after this primary because he didn't do well in Iowa (like he was early in the polls) and is just hoping to gain some traction.

New Hampshire Call

First, I will make the not so shocking call of the Democrats giving Bernie Sanders first place and Hillary Clinton second. I do not have time for a detailed call.
On to the Republicans.
There are 23 Delegates at Stake and a minimum of 10%  of the vote to qualify for delegates.

This is the format for this call:
x. Candidate - Center Percentage
LowRange-HighRange%

1. Trump- 30%
28.96973366-31.1841125%

Even accounting for the low turnout rates of Trump supporters in Iowa, the vote is divided so heavily in the more  establishment candidates (Bush, Kaisch, Christie, and arguably Rubio) he has a pretty good chance of winning.
Delegates: 8

2. Rubio - 16%
15.26320278-16.6214126%

Delegates - 5Although he was heavily criticized in the debate it was by Chris Christie who isn't the most popular candidate.  This attacking by Christie well actually help his case against Cruz for more conservative voters but hurt him with more moderate voters.  So I consider this a wash.

3. Kaisch - 15.25%
13.70613762-15.31347022%

His record as a governor in a swing state and his positive campaign and a more moderate message will make him do well in New Hampshire.  However his stance in South Carolina and his results in Iowa may indicate he may not make it through to the end.
Delegates - 4

4. Cruz - 11%
10.61742719-11.88257281

He may have won Iowa but in a moderate blue state he won't be very popular.  However, he can pick up some delegates but will go behind Rubio in the race for delegates.

Delegates - 3

5. Bush - 10.5%
9.890813113-10.85428493

Bush's ad money on attacking other candidates like Rubio, Trump, and Cruz is mainly just in my opinion helping Kaisch (His campaign  has a positive message) and Rubio (it proves he is not a typical politician).  Although he will probably never drop out until the bitter end, his campaign will soon become irrelevant.
Delegates - 3


No Delegates Past this point

6. Christie - 8.5%
7.409451198-8.629010341%

Christie did well at the debate which should give him a little push from the polls but his attack of Rubio may hurt him long term in other states.  Christie may dropout if he doesn't pull a delegate in New Hampshire because his home state doesn't vote until June.

7.  Fiorina
4.067449458-4.778704389%
Fiorina should perform a little bit better than Iowa because of her views.

8. Carson - 3.999%
3.998275847-5.847877999%

Like Cruz, he is too conservative to get much traction in a state that almost always leans towards a more moderate candidate.

9. Gilmore - 0.001%
Gilmore got a very small portion because he got 5 votes in Iowa and wasn't in any polls and I don't feel it is acceptable to give a 0% to someone on the ballot.

Iowa Overview

1. First I want to acknowledge my mistake of assigning a center percentage of 3 to Christie when I ranked him behind bush.  I was struggling to get the magic 100.00% and had some difficulties.  My ranking was almost perfect only switching Kaisch and Huckabee. I did predict that Marco Rubio would out-perform his poll numbers but I did not expect him to do as well as he did.  Looking forward to next tuesday, I am going to do an historical bayesian adjustment of the New Hampshire polls and only include very recent polls.  Let's breakdown of what  I learned yesterday:

1. Ground Game Matters

A strong organization can beat or almost beat a celebrity candidate. But celebrity and popularity can still help.


2.  Trump did increase turnout (of non-Trump Supporters)

Since I am a republican and therefore think like a republican and if I normally didn't caucus but if there was a threat of a candidate that was in my mind disruptive to my party I would definitely vote.

3.  Watch the highly educated or higher income voters. (I already figured this was important)

In the very few polls  available with fully demographically stratified results showed a much similar picture to what actually happened if you adjusted for the average income level or education level of an Iowa voter.

4.  A lot can happen in 72 hours.

The final Des Moines Register Poll ended about 72 hours before caucus day.  It showed the decline of Bush and the rise of Rubio, and the lower trump lead (it was in the margin of error).  Momentum carried those changes and allowed them to show up on Causus night.

5.  Thinking like a Republican Matters

One of the unique perspectives I carry to my predictions of the GOP is because I understand the mind of the Republican matters.  I think the instinct I had that more moderate (or at least not Trump Supporters)  voters would turn out fearful of the polling data.  Regardless of your political beliefs your model and your predictions should reflect the minds of who you are predicting.

What I Think Will Happen In New Hampshire

Given what happened last night, I need to rethink the New Hampshire process.  Since Trump was polling with a double-digit lead on Rubio but lost by 2% , maybe his data needs to be treated with a grain of salt and the undecided voters (who i predicted would go to Cruz or Rubio) should not be proportionally reassigned but used as  a  method to correct the model.


What Last Night Means to the Nomination Process

Although  Trump or Rubio (and maybe Cruz) maybe incredibly close to the nomination a brokered convention is still a possibility. And the unbound delegates in the nomination may end up with the final call, and if they are looking for a win in November they will probably pick Rubio and a more Tea Party partner..