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Disclaimer: While I am a paid undergraduate researcher for Texas Tech University, the opinions expressed on this blog are my own. The statements on this blog are not endorsements of views of Texas Tech University, The Honors College of Texas Tech University, or the math department of Texas Tech University, or any other department or campus organization of Texas Tech University.

Sunday, February 7, 2016

New Hampshire Call

First, I will make the not so shocking call of the Democrats giving Bernie Sanders first place and Hillary Clinton second. I do not have time for a detailed call.
On to the Republicans.
There are 23 Delegates at Stake and a minimum of 10%  of the vote to qualify for delegates.

This is the format for this call:
x. Candidate - Center Percentage
LowRange-HighRange%

1. Trump- 30%
28.96973366-31.1841125%

Even accounting for the low turnout rates of Trump supporters in Iowa, the vote is divided so heavily in the more  establishment candidates (Bush, Kaisch, Christie, and arguably Rubio) he has a pretty good chance of winning.
Delegates: 8

2. Rubio - 16%
15.26320278-16.6214126%

Delegates - 5Although he was heavily criticized in the debate it was by Chris Christie who isn't the most popular candidate.  This attacking by Christie well actually help his case against Cruz for more conservative voters but hurt him with more moderate voters.  So I consider this a wash.

3. Kaisch - 15.25%
13.70613762-15.31347022%

His record as a governor in a swing state and his positive campaign and a more moderate message will make him do well in New Hampshire.  However his stance in South Carolina and his results in Iowa may indicate he may not make it through to the end.
Delegates - 4

4. Cruz - 11%
10.61742719-11.88257281

He may have won Iowa but in a moderate blue state he won't be very popular.  However, he can pick up some delegates but will go behind Rubio in the race for delegates.

Delegates - 3

5. Bush - 10.5%
9.890813113-10.85428493

Bush's ad money on attacking other candidates like Rubio, Trump, and Cruz is mainly just in my opinion helping Kaisch (His campaign  has a positive message) and Rubio (it proves he is not a typical politician).  Although he will probably never drop out until the bitter end, his campaign will soon become irrelevant.
Delegates - 3


No Delegates Past this point

6. Christie - 8.5%
7.409451198-8.629010341%

Christie did well at the debate which should give him a little push from the polls but his attack of Rubio may hurt him long term in other states.  Christie may dropout if he doesn't pull a delegate in New Hampshire because his home state doesn't vote until June.

7.  Fiorina
4.067449458-4.778704389%
Fiorina should perform a little bit better than Iowa because of her views.

8. Carson - 3.999%
3.998275847-5.847877999%

Like Cruz, he is too conservative to get much traction in a state that almost always leans towards a more moderate candidate.

9. Gilmore - 0.001%
Gilmore got a very small portion because he got 5 votes in Iowa and wasn't in any polls and I don't feel it is acceptable to give a 0% to someone on the ballot.

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