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Disclaimer: While I am a paid undergraduate researcher for Texas Tech University, the opinions expressed on this blog are my own. The statements on this blog are not endorsements of views of Texas Tech University, The Honors College of Texas Tech University, or the math department of Texas Tech University, or any other department or campus organization of Texas Tech University.

Sunday, February 21, 2016

Nevada GOP Call

30 Delegates minimum of 3.33% to qualify


1. Trump
Center 34%
Range-34%-43%
Delegates -10

Trump is an historic under performer at about at the bottom of the range so I am calling him low.

2.  Rubio
Center - 27%
Range - 17-27%
Delegates - 8

With Bush out Rubio expect a bump from the polls, and the second place finish in South Carolina should give him even more momentum.

3. Cruz
Center 21%
Range - 15-25%
Delegates - 7

Cruz should do about as good here as he did in New Hampshire after adjusting for dropouts.

4.  Kasich
Center- 12%
Range - 2.5-15.5
Delegates -3

When a guy with more money and more votes dropouts out  before you that may be a sign your campaign.  I think if he doesn't do well he will quit. Nevada is his last chance.


5. Carson
Center - 6%
Range - 0-12
Delegates - 2

Carson should probably also quit.
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