There are two states with republican elections on March 22: Arizona and Utah. Arizona has a winner-take all system with no minimum to win all the delegates. Utah is proportional but if a candidate has a majority that person will take all the delegates. I will break down the dynamics for both the states.
Arizona
Model - Nevada Results and an Arizona poll
The results from Florida and Nevada show that it is likely Trump will win because of the fact that the Rubio vote will be split between Kasich and Cruz. Since the poll data is limited and before Rubio's campaign suspension, I decided to use a rough 0.1/0.7/0.2 (Trump, Cruz, Kasich) split of Rubio's poll numbers. The lack of applicable poll data has been a struggle in recent contests in some states. Trump has a advantage because of his strong immigration stance that should help him win over voters who fear the competition by immigrants. Cruz should do well but not well enough to win. Kasich may win over Hispanic voters but they don't make a huge part of the republican party in this state.
Results:
1.Trump 69 Delegates 0.464 +/- 0.0308
2. Cruz .394 +/- 0.0301
3. Kasich 0.141 +/- 0.0215
Utah
Model - Idaho results and a Utah poll
Utah has a high Mormon population which according to exit polls from Idaho supported Rubio or Cruz in high numbers. Since Mitt Romney endorsed Cruz this will influence a large number of Mormon voters who represent most of the republican electorate in Utah. Therefore, most of the Rubio support should go to Cruz given the Romney endorsement and Cruz should reach a majority of the vote and win all of the delegates..
Results:
1. Cruz 40 Delegates 0.633 +/- 0.0552
2. Trump 0.288 +/- 0.0518
3. Kasich 0.0794 +/- 0.0310
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