March 8 GOP

Summary

Trump should do pretty good given his history and should win every state.   Cruz should be a strong  second in all of the states besides Hawaii where he should be third. Rubio and Kaisch are honestly getting to a point where only one of them can stay in.  Idaho because of its high Mormon population should be very good for both Cruz and Rubio who based on certain precincts in Nevada did very well with Mormons.


The States:

Michigan 15% Cutoff 59 Delegates,  Used Michigan poll and Massachusetts results.

1. Trump 28 Delegates 0.402 +/-  0.0270
2. Cruz 17 Delegates 0.255 +/- 0.0240
3. Rubio 14 Delegates 0.208 +/- 0.0223
4. Kaisch 0.135 +/- 0.0188

Mississippi  15% Cutoff 40 Delegates.  Used Alabama results and Mississippi poll

1.Trump 21 Delegates 0.452 +/- 0.0459
2. Cruz 19 Delegates 0.390 +/- 0.0450
3. Rubio 0.0962 +/- 0.0450
4. Kaisch 0.0617 +/- 0,0222

Idaho  20% Cutoff 32 Delegates .  Used  Minnesota results and the final Des Moines Register poll from Iowa
1. Rubio 12 Delegates 0.337 +/- 0.0385
2. Cruz 11 Delegates 0.310 +/- 0.0377
3. Trump 9 Delegates 0.267 +/- 0.03604
4.  Kaisch 0.0864 +/- 0.022907



Hawaii No cutoff , 19 Delegates.  Used Massachusetts results and polls

1.  Trump 10 Delegates 0.512 +/- 0.0494
2. Kaisch 4 Delegates 0.217 +/- 0.0408
3. Rubio 3 Delegates 0.148 +/- 0.0351
4. Cruz 2 Delegates 0,122 +/- 0.0325


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