Delegate Allocation Rules
Ohio and Florida - Winner Takes All. Highest number of votes wins all the delegates.
Missouri, Illinois, North Carolina - The RNC delegates are unpledged. In North Carolina it is proportional with no lower limit. In Illinois the winner gets the 12 winner take all delegates and the winner in each of congressional districts will take the 3 delegates of that district. In Missouri the winner gets 9 delegates and the winner of each district gets 5 delegates for that district.
What this day means to all the Candidates.
Donald Trump
Mathematically Trump can't win it on Tuesday but he can make it much harder for any other candidates to get the nomination. After March 15th Trump will likely have more delegates than all the other candidates combined and it will be hard to avoid a Trump nomination. Even if he doesn't get the 1237 delegates needed for nomination he will probably have the most delegates by a large margin and will likely be the best choice for the GOP since they can't afford to alienate those voters.
Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz won't win Florida or Ohio but he will likely win Missouri and get the highest proprtion of those delegates. He should get delegates in North Carolina and delegates from a few districts in Illinois. Most of the conservative evangelical heavy states will have voted by Tuesday, but he can get a few delegates in proportional states and states that use other methods.
Marco Rubio
Rubio is a middle-ground candidate that has a diverse field of supporters. He should win in Florida because of momentum from the debate in his home state and a change in dynamics since Georgia, which is the model state for Florida. In other states he won't perform as well because he is not the frontrunner and the rules for delegate allocation do not favor him.
John Kasich
Kasich should win in Ohio because of his performance in Michigan and his hometown advantage. Looking forward to other states he has a chance to win in the future blue states or swing states.
State Calls
------------------
Florida
The home field advantage should help Rubio and his strong debate performance on Thursday should help him clinch the win. I used Florida polls and Georgia results for this call.
1. Rubio 99 Delegates 0.364 +/- 0.0152
2. Trump 0.362 +/- 0.0152
3. Cruz 0.205 +/- 0.0127
4. Kasich 0.0685 +/- 0.00801
Ohio
The home field advantage and Rubio's move to tell his supports to vote Kasich in Ohio to prevent a Trump victory should help Kasich. I used Ohio polls and the results for Michigan.
1. Kasich 72 Delegates 0.446+/- 0.0199
2. Trump 0.292 +/- 0.0182
3. Cruz 0.152 +/- 0.0144
4. Rubio 0.111 +/- 0.126
North Carolina
The delegates are basically proportional and I used a North Carolina poll and Virginia results.
1. Trump 29 Delegates 0.376 +/- 0.0257
2. Rubio 23 Delegates 0.330 +/- 0.0249
3. Cruz 14 Delegates 0.199 +/- 0.0212
4. Kasich 6 Delegates 0.094 +/- 0.0155
Illinois
I used Illinois polls and Michigan results. Based on 2012 results and 2008 results I think Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio can get votes in places where similar candidates had a strong lead.
1. Trump 39 Delegates 0.435 +/- 0.0312
2. Cruz 12 Delegates 0.287 +/- 0.0285
3. Kasich 12 Delegates 0.176 +/- 0.0240
4. Rubio 3 Delegates 0.101 +/- 0.0190
Missouri
Cruz should easily win Missouri. Similar to the method I used for Illinois I checked past results and polling trends to find districts that Rubio, Trump and Kasich can win.
1. Cruz 34 Delegates 0.441 +/- 0.0688
2. Trump 5 Delegates 0.213 +/- 0.0568
3. Rubio 5 Delegates 0.196 +/- 0.0551
4. Kasich 5 Delegates 0.150 +/- 0.0495
No comments:
Post a Comment