First Projection of the Election

Here is a current projection of the Swing States.  There is only one poll (a national poll) including data from after the Friday Trump video and WikiLeaks of Clinton's speeches.  If it is too close to call that means the confidence intervals overlap.  If it is outside the confidence interval, there is no overlap, and it is highly unlikely that the other candidate has a lead in the polls. We are still 29 days out, so anything can happen, but today it looks like Hillary will win.

Here is My Calls as of the data available today.

1. Wisconsin - Hillary, Outside of the confidence interval
2. Iowa - Too close to call, less than 1% of lead for Trump
3. Colorado - Hillary, Outside of the confidence interval
4. Michigan  - Hillary, Outside of the confidence interval
5.  Florida - Hillary, Outside of the confidence interval
6. Pennsylvania - Hillary, Outside of the confidence interval
7. North Carolina - Leans Hillary, but technically inside the confidence interval
8. Ohio - Too close to call, less than 1% of lead for Hillary
9. Virginia - Hillary, Outside of the confidence interval
10. Nevada - Hillary, Outside of the  confidence interval
11. New Hampshire - Hillary, Outside of the confidence interval

Assuming all other states with a winner-take-all system vote as usual, and excluding the two proportional states (Nebraska, Maine) to make this analysis easier. The electoral count would be 306 Clinton and 186 Trump.  Here is  a map I generated from 270towin.com:http://www.270towin.com/maps/wyoGy .

I will try to do this kind of analysis a few times before election day.


Full Results for those who care:

Note: I am using a bayesian gaussian conjugate analysis.  Technically it isn't the margin of error but rather outside the bayesian credible interval. These were all based on National Polls that included Johnson.  Other represents Jill Stein, and write in candidates.  The data is not fully normal yet, but it is nearly normal and approaching normal.

Wisconsin based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.470415003827
Hillary's Std: 0.0034495460031859076
Hillary's CI: (0.46365401789813493, 0.47717598975665182)
Trump's Mean:  0.407319262907
Trump's SD: 0.007396991745285362
Trump's CI: (0.39282142549266735, 0.42181710032206615)
Other Mean: 0.0425827118082
Other Std:  0.0110470868148955
Other CI: (0.020930819516899922, 0.064234604099464881)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0796830214571
Johnson's SD: 0.009832086818359407
Johnson's CI: (0.060412485400202137, 0.098953557513913021)

Iowa based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.440170105509
Hillary's Std: 0.0020669512929852073
Hillary's CI: (0.43611895541737877, 0.44422125560147774)
Trump's Mean:  0.447913044097
Trump's SD: 0.008354263417823627
Trump's CI: (0.43153898868117718, 0.46428709951376684)
Other Mean: 0.0386983448956
Other Std:  0.008928684250168961
Other CI: (0.021198445335939797, 0.056198244455262156)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0732185054975
Johnson's SD: 0.008249544533061003
Johnson's CI: (0.057049695323840029, 0.089387315671157763)

Colorado based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.45891815616
Hillary's Std: 0.001846776782303797
Hillary's CI: (0.45529854017900528, 0.46253777214060565)
Trump's Mean:  0.413193888437
Trump's SD: 0.008570580462531743
Trump's CI: (0.39639585940368099, 0.4299919174700107)
Other Mean: 0.0449939206856
Other Std:  0.008684975201715829
Other CI: (0.027971682083646452, 0.062016159287619485)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0828940347177
Johnson's SD: 0.008056175488558737
Johnson's CI: (0.067104220907006185, 0.098683848528425183)

Michigan based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.501309366174
Hillary's Std: 0.003442976812697726
Hillary's CI: (0.49456125562122444, 0.50805747672621249)
Trump's Mean:  0.40665815805
Trump's SD: 0.010910122711601732
Trump's CI: (0.38527471046871625, 0.42804160563202004)
Other Mean: 0.0305658890533
Other Std:  0.009116008330993849
Other CI: (0.012698841041813007, 0.048432937064843071)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0614665867226
Johnson's SD: 0.008396610702088301
Johnson's CI: (0.045009532154288892, 0.077923641290882181)

Florida based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.471000847818
Hillary's Std: 0.000989203137339085
Hillary's CI: (0.46906204529560452, 0.47293965034076174)
Trump's Mean:  0.449741932093
Trump's SD: 0.005515633760495897
Trump's CI: (0.43893148857032033, 0.46055237561529067)
Other Mean: 0.0273230872086
Other Std:  0.005083334417496808
Other CI: (0.017359934828954079, 0.037286239588287355)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0519341328804
Johnson's SD: 0.00494773265990459
Johnson's CI: (0.042236755061845217, 0.061631510698936333)

Pennsylvania  based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.493603584814
Hillary's Std: 0.0010456577937836015
Hillary's CI: (0.49155413319794855, 0.49565303642988751)
Trump's Mean:  0.421488143274
Trump's SD: 0.005738549894200958
Trump's CI: (0.41024079215788078, 0.43273549439012082)
Other Mean: 0.0292716638062
Other Std:  0.005377160946381598
Other CI: (0.018732622012242614, 0.039810705600209099)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0556366081059
Johnson's SD: 0.005217412872650881
Johnson's CI: (0.045410666782984027, 0.06586254942872681)

North Carolina  based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.464364093623
Hillary's Std: 0.0011323467803349592
Hillary's CI: (0.46214473471590578, 0.46658345253083855)
Trump's Mean:  0.454520203388
Trump's SD: 0.0054298785069183
Trump's CI: (0.44387783707417394, 0.46516256970214998)
Other Mean: 0.0277225171224
Other Std:  0.006087250197773754
Other CI: (0.015791725969859047, 0.039653308274900802)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0533931858661
Johnson's SD: 0.005858329379282931
Johnson's CI: (0.041911071273118425, 0.064875300459053292)

Ohio  based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.456654533478
Hillary's Std: 0.001440496286259149
Hillary's CI: (0.45383121263720361, 0.45947785431906685)
Trump's Mean:  0.44892501008
Trump's SD: 0.005785961682916272
Trump's CI: (0.43758473356569932, 0.4602652865945886)
Other Mean: 0.0325710680011
Other Std:  0.0063368481254245925
Other CI: (0.02015107389981715, 0.044991062102481862)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0618493884406
Johnson's SD: 0.006079794988665313
Johnson's CI: (0.049933209229400359, 0.073765567651742595)

Virginia  based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.509817492716
Hillary's Std: 0.0015233871311132062
Hillary's CI: (0.50683170880445305, 0.51280327662744052)
Trump's Mean:  0.383083512701
Trump's SD: 0.008130523801764756
Trump's CI: (0.36714797887416767, 0.39901904652797687)
Other Mean: 0.0368006824832
Other Std:  0.007828013398694671
Other CI: (0.021458058151221614, 0.05214330681509869)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0702983120998
Johnson's SD: 0.007358225605696471
Johnson's CI: (0.055876454922535256, 0.084720169277106266)

Nevada  based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.459625107351
Hillary's Std: 0.0021089007542614336
Hillary's CI: (0.45549173782530528, 0.46375847687594884)
Trump's Mean:  0.433940580643
Trump's SD: 0.004902596091165791
Trump's CI: (0.42433166887329182, 0.44354949241215541)
Other Mean: 0.0370111979379
Other Std:  0.006325662019835855
Other CI: (0.024613128200687256, 0.049409267675189592)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0694231140687
Johnson's SD: 0.006069913618124712
Johnson's CI: (0.057526301987917139, 0.081319926149504423)

New Hampshire  based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.464219636203
Hillary's Std: 0.001973036141367581
Hillary's CI: (0.46035255642532358, 0.46808671597987628)
Trump's Mean:  0.420693735144
Trump's SD: 0.009608656541361667
Trump's CI: (0.40186111438313665, 0.43952635590490474)
Other Mean: 0.0400485340181
Other Std:  0.009615724105246576
Other CI: (0.021202061086498983, 0.058895006949612833)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0750380946353
Johnson's SD: 0.008782222995839079
Johnson's CI: (0.057825253859279432, 0.092250935411367543)