Swing State Rounds

Here is an update on the swing states.  This includes polls after the first debate and the poll information was downloaded on 10/19/2016 and may not include all polls available today.  In the case of Utah , Evan McMullin was included in the analysis.


1. Arizona - To close to call, Clinton has a higher mean
2.  Colorado - Clinton, outside of credible (confidence) interval
3. Florida -  Clinton, outside of credible interval
4. Iowa - To close to call, Trump has a lead of less than 1%
5. Michigan - Clinton, outside of credible interval
6. Nevada - To close to call, Clinton has a 1% lead
7.New Hampshire - Clinton, outside of credible interval
8. North Carolina - Clinton, outside of credible interval
9. Ohio - To close to call, Clinton has a 1% lead
10. Pennsylvania  - Clinton, outside of credible interval
11. Virginia - Clinton, outside of credible interval
12.Utah- Clinton, outside of credible interval
13.  Wisconsin - Clinton, outside of credible interval

Comments:
In comparison to my projection 10 days ago Nevada and North Carolina changed.  Nevada went from a Hillary lead to a near tie.  North Carolina went from to close to call to solid Clinton.  The result for Utah is probably because of high variability of Trump's poll numbers and the recent addition of Evan McMullin to polls.  In this kind  of model "success" could be defined as getting around 95% of the states correct.  If I get any state wrong, it will probably be Utah because recent rise of Evan McMullin in Utah. If it is "too close to call" I will run statistical tests to see who has the higher probability of winning in my final call.  It's worth noting today Hillary Clinton still
Here is a map of my current projection which excludes the proportional states (Nebraska, Maine): http://www.270towin.com/maps/jAj6e

Full Results:

Arizona based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.4826645962
Hillary's Std: 0.005770625725029746
Hillary's CI: (0.47135437761037702, 0.49397481478901428)
Trump's Mean:  0.459933318779
Trump's SD: 0.02398757459733429
Trump's CI: (0.41291853649211391, 0.50694810106660015)
Other Mean: 0.0335889642402
Other Std:  0.013666339757980227
Other CI: (0.006803430514120138, 0.06037449796637831)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0238131207807
Johnson's SD: 0.017177450293619206
Johnson's CI: (-0.0098540631410224677, 0.057480304702418772)

Colorado based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.477416424788
Hillary's Std: 0.005780454638627786
Hillary's CI: (0.46608694188176769, 0.48874590769372361)
Trump's Mean:  0.423288819675
Trump's SD: 0.007451305883770772
Trump's CI: (0.40868452850462611, 0.43789311084459037)
Other Mean: 0.0589076256281
Other Std:  0.009130319284094386
Other CI: (0.041012528663965986, 0.076802722592319031)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0403871299095
Johnson's SD: 0.047721947897939224
Johnson's CI: (-0.053146169242554143, 0.13392042906156149)

Florida based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.483371307335
Hillary's Std: 0.0035543618739103267
Hillary's CI: (0.47640488607451303, 0.4903377285962861)
Trump's Mean:  0.456994195862
Trump's SD: 0.004651984624271228
Trump's CI: (0.44787647354185939, 0.46611191818227077)
Other Mean: 0.0305588757194
Other Std:  0.004286484733473557
Other CI: (0.0221575200215062, 0.038960231417284094)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0290756210831
Johnson's SD: 0.028508207557744168
Johnson's CI: (-0.02679943899383078, 0.084950681160111507)

Iowa based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.471296538728
Hillary's Std: 0.00532409368379622
Hillary's CI: (0.46086150685760285, 0.48173157059871841)
Trump's Mean:  0.476409629511
Trump's SD: 0.006875513768374807
Trump's CI: (0.46293387014978366, 0.48988538887223149)
Other Mean: 0.0356953270827
Other Std:  0.0070157570902243055
Other CI: (0.021944695861547858, 0.049445958303790186)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0165985046782
Johnson's SD: 0.030859380503869993
Johnson's CI: (-0.043884769694639877, 0.077081779050965513)

Nevada based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.469271386227
Hillary's Std: 0.004946737984965025
Hillary's CI: (0.45957595793525952, 0.47896681451823486)
Trump's Mean:  0.459597925196
Trump's SD: 0.0038720042486659976
Trump's CI: (0.45200893632058975, 0.46718691407133256)
Other Mean: 0.0337300811239
Other Std:  0.004796206417329887
Other CI: (0.024329689283504589, 0.043130472964277515)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0374006074534
Johnson's SD: 0.036835660489938665
Johnson's CI: (-0.03479596045362416, 0.10959717536042549)

New Hampshire based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.491511576503
Hillary's Std: 0.006184889669541725
Hillary's CI: (0.47938941550241276, 0.50363373750372398)
Trump's Mean:  0.424464139689
Trump's SD: 0.00790971560872296
Trump's CI: (0.40896138196832044, 0.43996689741042305)
Other Mean: 0.0412784466467
Other Std:  0.00787449957049795
Other CI: (0.025844711092240971, 0.056712182201145184)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0427458371609
Johnson's SD: 0.045559037257260564
Johnson's CI: (-0.046548235033682377, 0.13203990935541599)

North Carolina based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.482643446072
Hillary's Std: 0.0036921000308568898
Hillary's CI: (0.475407062983773, 0.48987982915937045)
Trump's Mean:  0.46548679988
Trump's SD: 0.0037307385128807174
Trump's CI: (0.45817468675934503, 0.47279891300131049)
Other Mean: 0.0282581133199
Other Std:  0.004446925517459925
Other CI: (0.019542299463774233, 0.036973927176081424)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0236116407282
Johnson's SD: 0.031223340677357637
Johnson's CI: (-0.037584982476472725, 0.084808263932818123)

Ohio based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.471884300344
Hillary's Std: 0.004919136567359781
Hillary's CI: (0.46224296983720109, 0.48152563085131944)
Trump's Mean:  0.46085135508
Trump's SD: 0.005228853534360963
Trump's CI: (0.45060299047215657, 0.47109971968772146)
Other Mean: 0.0336342502379
Other Std:  0.004706497362178993
Other CI: (0.024409684914669758, 0.042858815561076943)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0336300943379
Johnson's SD: 0.03528197142544712
Johnson's CI: (-0.035521298959520373, 0.10278148763537497)

Pennsylvania based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.500869429025
Hillary's Std: 0.00387715652840034
Hillary's CI: (0.49327034186647301, 0.50846851618265099)
Trump's Mean:  0.438829673431
Trump's SD: 0.005012909137332484
Trump's CI: (0.42900455206374022, 0.44865479479762704)
Other Mean: 0.0400578919418
Other Std:  0.005294587874844809
Other CI: (0.029680690394105702, 0.050435093489462277)
Johnson's Mean: 0.020243005603
Johnson's SD: 0.026295518739885098
Johnson's CI: (-0.03129526408200263, 0.071781275287943092)

Virigina based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.501932501222
Hillary's Std: 0.005398029616372667
Hillary's CI: (0.4913525575865631, 0.51251244485770509)
Trump's Mean:  0.424761018427
Trump's SD: 0.007720450882525204
Trump's CI: (0.40962921275241743, 0.43989282410073721)
Other Mean: 0.0431369457954
Other Std:  0.006488591625266348
Other CI: (0.030419539899491504, 0.055854351691312018)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0301695345559
Johnson's SD: 0.038652447102297455
Johnson's CI: (-0.045587869678955818, 0.10592693879072937)

Utah based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.422106369673
Hillary's Std: 0.00982642111785062
Hillary's CI: (0.41695907009458066, 0.42725366925055341)
Trump's Mean:  0.338601890602
Trump's SD: 0.021081102095464883
Trump's CI: (0.32755913692650673, 0.34964464427818198)
Other Mean: 0.0553121796899
Other Std:  0.005117543919704436
Other CI: (0.052631495507747206, 0.057992863872139686)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0849535268486
Johnson's SD: 0.012683687139758705
Johnson's CI: (0.078309527301004281, 0.09159752639625808)
McMullin's Mean: 0.0990260331865
McMullin's SD: 0.010991261260070766
McMullin's CI: (0.093268564239582186, 0.10478350213344584)

Wisconsin based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.50554682117
Hillary's Std: 0.004704774467219511
Hillary's CI: (0.49632563265892915, 0.51476800968119685)
Trump's Mean:  0.420424512177
Trump's SD: 0.021565454647375925
Trump's CI: (0.37815699775751155, 0.46269202659568898)
Other Mean: 0.0366358985876
Other Std:  0.014569139244284636
Other CI: (0.0080809103830271414, 0.065190886792121122)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0373927680658
Johnson's SD: 0.020369923504102053
Johnson's CI: (-0.0025315483701133304, 0.0773170845016386)