I didn't see a Trump presidency coming. I never liked Trump, but I liked him a little more than Clinton personally. But I couldn't personally imagine that he would receive support outside the republican party. I underestimated him. I assumed that undecided voters would be split pretty evenly, which normally happens. The polls showed Clinton would win, and the early voting data supported this. I don't know why the polls were wrong. I don't know if I and other people focused enough on the potential for error in our models. Maybe we sold our models as a certainty, when there was a potential for error. So I thought the polls were right. But they weren't. I don't know what happened. I don't think the polls were rigged. Maybe people lied about their support. Maybe Trump supporters didn't participate enough in polls. Maybe people changed their mind suddenly after polls stopped. This isn't over. Just because we may have failed in this election doesn't mean we going to stop predicting. We had bad data, and statistics doesn't work on bad data. We could have made mistakes and assumptions that turn out to be incorrect. But we will learn and grow and examine our results.
We may have made mistakes. I hope that you will understand that the failure of the predictors shouldn't mean we need to be dismissed. I think the biggest problem we had was we focused on the data a little too much and ignored the fact that Trump overperformed in the primaries compared to the polls, and Clinton underperformed her poll numbers in the primaries. I don't have the answers yet. It could take years to understand what happened. But it will be studied. We will work on being better. We will focus on creating better polls and better models. I ask instead of dismissing us as biased or as pseudoscientists, that you would give statistics another chance. Election prediction is a relatively new field. Give us a chance to grow. Answer polls and help us get better data. Give us a second chance.
Thursday, November 10, 2016
Tuesday, November 8, 2016
Looking forward to the future
After the election results become final, I will make a final post on this blog with my accuracy and the accuracy of the four other organizations mentioned before. But after the final post, I will no longer be using this blog, but it will still be available for reference. I will continue to write about statistics on my new website : balexanderstatistics.com . I can be contacted on the form on the site found here: http://www.balexanderstatistics.com/contact-us/ .
Saturday, November 5, 2016
Comparison Information
Here are the current calls of four different websites to be used as comparisons for the success of my model.
My model
Five Thirty Eight
My model
Five Thirty Eight
Princeton Election Consortium
Upshot from New York Times
Real Clear Politics
Final Call Summary
This post represents my official final prediction for the 2016 presidential election using my experimental model based upon bayesian analysis. Overall my model predicts 340 electors for Clinton and 198 electors for Trump.
My final set of data was pulled from Pollster (run by Huffington Post) on either Friday (11/04) or Saturday (11/05).
First I am going to lay out again how my model works and how decisions are made.
I designed my experiment in September of 2016. Basically my model operates on an adjusted average of poll data from both the state and a similar state with more information. There are 5 categories for the states: red southern states (Texas polls), red midwest states (Nebraska polls), blue northern states (New York polls), blue western states (California polls), and swing states (National polls). These states were chosen in advance. If I were making this decision today, I would have picked Indiana for the midwest states instead of Nebraska because it has more polls with better information on other candidates. For a poll to be considered it had to been conducted on or after July 1st, 2016. The lastest polls do not play a large factor in my analysis since I am averaging the since July 1st. Percentages for third party candidates were attempted to be approximated, but because of the inconsistencies in the inclusion of third party in state level polls my model will underestimate these candidates. Changes over time are not a factor in my analysis, because the theory is over time opinions don't change that much about candidates in an usual election.
I am defining success as correctly predicting at least 46 states. However, this experiment is not about being correct. This is about testing the effectiveness of a new type of model. My model is probably not the best model on how to predict a presidential election, but it is still a valid model and should be relatively accurate. This model is also untested and there are no examples of this exact approach. I make my calls and analysis based on my model not my opinions. I only think my model is wrong in Ohio because I believe the latest trends over the last few weeks there are probably more accurate than the overall average for the last few months. In the nomination process, I made calls on my personal opinion in cases of overlapping intervals that were close so that no true winner could be found. If I had a situation like that in the general election I would make a call on outside information, but I this is not the case. This prediction is what I am studying academically and is what I will write my paper on and present at conferences. However, I might release another prediction tomorrow or Monday based on new polls that changes the results of my model in the 6 states I think might flip before election day. This updated prediction will be based on my model, but won't determine the success of my experiment.
Nebraska and Maine award based on congressional district. My prediction is Trump will win all congressional districts in Nebraska, and the 2nd district in Maine. Clinton will win the 1st district in Maine.
This is a summary map of how my model is calling every state:
This is the official map for my experiment.
This map isn't based entirely on my model. I think this is what will actually happen based upon a combination of model and other factors like momentum, trends, early voting data, new stories, and other non-poll based factors. However, besides Ohio both models are in agreement.
Personal Opinion Disclosure: I voted a straight republican ticket in the election except for president where I wrote in Ana Navarro.
Technical Description of my model: I am doing a bayesian analysis assuming a normal prior, a normal hypothesis, and a normal posterior. This is done in Anaconda using Scipy. The method for finding standard deviation is the standard formula based on the sum of the squares of deviations from the mean. I am aware that this is probably not the best method for this kind of situation. But, I am limited by time and mathematical abilities as an undergraduate student. I plan to go more indepth in the future.
My final set of data was pulled from Pollster (run by Huffington Post) on either Friday (11/04) or Saturday (11/05).
First I am going to lay out again how my model works and how decisions are made.
I designed my experiment in September of 2016. Basically my model operates on an adjusted average of poll data from both the state and a similar state with more information. There are 5 categories for the states: red southern states (Texas polls), red midwest states (Nebraska polls), blue northern states (New York polls), blue western states (California polls), and swing states (National polls). These states were chosen in advance. If I were making this decision today, I would have picked Indiana for the midwest states instead of Nebraska because it has more polls with better information on other candidates. For a poll to be considered it had to been conducted on or after July 1st, 2016. The lastest polls do not play a large factor in my analysis since I am averaging the since July 1st. Percentages for third party candidates were attempted to be approximated, but because of the inconsistencies in the inclusion of third party in state level polls my model will underestimate these candidates. Changes over time are not a factor in my analysis, because the theory is over time opinions don't change that much about candidates in an usual election.
I am defining success as correctly predicting at least 46 states. However, this experiment is not about being correct. This is about testing the effectiveness of a new type of model. My model is probably not the best model on how to predict a presidential election, but it is still a valid model and should be relatively accurate. This model is also untested and there are no examples of this exact approach. I make my calls and analysis based on my model not my opinions. I only think my model is wrong in Ohio because I believe the latest trends over the last few weeks there are probably more accurate than the overall average for the last few months. In the nomination process, I made calls on my personal opinion in cases of overlapping intervals that were close so that no true winner could be found. If I had a situation like that in the general election I would make a call on outside information, but I this is not the case. This prediction is what I am studying academically and is what I will write my paper on and present at conferences. However, I might release another prediction tomorrow or Monday based on new polls that changes the results of my model in the 6 states I think might flip before election day. This updated prediction will be based on my model, but won't determine the success of my experiment.
Nebraska and Maine award based on congressional district. My prediction is Trump will win all congressional districts in Nebraska, and the 2nd district in Maine. Clinton will win the 1st district in Maine.
This is a summary map of how my model is calling every state:
This is the official map for my experiment.
This map isn't based entirely on my model. I think this is what will actually happen based upon a combination of model and other factors like momentum, trends, early voting data, new stories, and other non-poll based factors. However, besides Ohio both models are in agreement.
Personal Opinion Disclosure: I voted a straight republican ticket in the election except for president where I wrote in Ana Navarro.
Technical Description of my model: I am doing a bayesian analysis assuming a normal prior, a normal hypothesis, and a normal posterior. This is done in Anaconda using Scipy. The method for finding standard deviation is the standard formula based on the sum of the squares of deviations from the mean. I am aware that this is probably not the best method for this kind of situation. But, I am limited by time and mathematical abilities as an undergraduate student. I plan to go more indepth in the future.
Close Swing States
This group of states is close enough where new polling in the next few days could change how my model calls the state. These states are Arizona, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, in the order of least likely to most likely to change under my model. To be clear about when I pulled results time is included. All data is from Pollster (run by Huffington Post). All times are from 11/05 and are in Central Standard Time.
Full Results:
Note some confidence intervals were corrected to have a nonnegative beginning since probabilities can't be less than zero.
1. Arizona 3pm - Trump, outside of confidence interval
The recent news from the FBI, and the fact that after the 2nd debate Arizona got less close, means Trump will probably win Arizona. My main concern is that the hispanic vote (which leans towards Clinton) could change the outcome of this state. Polls are often based on likely voters which uses data from past elections, and if more hispanics vote in this election than ever before, the polls could be wrong. Republican have a lead in early voting, but it is close and not all registered Republican will vote for Trump. But given the strong history of Republican wins in Arizona, and the polls, it seems like Trump will win. My model shows a Trump win, but a closer race than ever before.
2. Florida 3pm - Clinton, outside of confidence interval
Florida is another close race. Democrats have a small lead in early voting, but it is close. My model shows a Clinton win by 3 percentage points, but I think personally it is closer than that. If Clinton can get Obama voters to turn out, she will win Florida. She has a great ground game in Florida and I think she will win there.
3. Iowa 3pm - Trump, outside of confidence interval
Iowa has been trending for Trump for the past month, but voting started in September, and early turnout for Republican was initially low. Now I think the race has stabilized and will be won by Trump. This will also be a close race.
4. North Carolina 4pm -Clinton, outside of confidence interval
Like I have said before Clinton has a great ground game and organization. This will be close, but since President Obama and Michelle Obama have been to this state recently to get out the vote. I think it is going to come down to the better run campaign. A recount could be likely here, maybe not on a statewide level, but in certain areas.
5. Nevada 4 pm - Clinton
I don't think Trump has enough support among Hispanics to win here. Hillary Clinton has an ad with employees of the Trump Corporation talking about why they don't want him to be president. The legalization of marijuana is on the ballot here, and I think that will draw out younger, more socially liberal voters who may not have otherwise voted. I think there could be a recount in certain areas, because the race is so close.
6. Ohio 4pm - My model - Clinton, My personal opinion - Trump
Sometimes statistics don't work. Normally they are right, and work well. Since my model focuses on the average of polls which have mainly been Clinton leads before the the last few weeks. So while the difference between my models two means is less than 1%, it is too big to call a Trump lead. This doesn't mean my model is wrong or bad. Sometimes these things happen. If I had only included polls starting after the first debate, or did things different I could have gotten a result suggesting a Trump lead. But to protect my research I decided this things in September. This is a tough year. Even the experts are making different calls than each other. So while I think the FBI's announcements about both Hillary and Bill Clinton, and early voting data suggest that Trump will win Ohio, as a researcher I have to default to my model. If a few new polls come out on Sunday or Monday with Trump leads it may tip the scales in my model, and I may post an update. At the end of the day this was never about being right, but rather to test a model. So while my gut tells me Trump will win Ohio, I have to admit that my model says Clinton will win.
Full Results:
Note some confidence intervals were corrected to have a nonnegative beginning since probabilities can't be less than zero.
1. Arizona 3pm - Trump, outside of confidence interval
The recent news from the FBI, and the fact that after the 2nd debate Arizona got less close, means Trump will probably win Arizona. My main concern is that the hispanic vote (which leans towards Clinton) could change the outcome of this state. Polls are often based on likely voters which uses data from past elections, and if more hispanics vote in this election than ever before, the polls could be wrong. Republican have a lead in early voting, but it is close and not all registered Republican will vote for Trump. But given the strong history of Republican wins in Arizona, and the polls, it seems like Trump will win. My model shows a Trump win, but a closer race than ever before.
2. Florida 3pm - Clinton, outside of confidence interval
Florida is another close race. Democrats have a small lead in early voting, but it is close. My model shows a Clinton win by 3 percentage points, but I think personally it is closer than that. If Clinton can get Obama voters to turn out, she will win Florida. She has a great ground game in Florida and I think she will win there.
3. Iowa 3pm - Trump, outside of confidence interval
Iowa has been trending for Trump for the past month, but voting started in September, and early turnout for Republican was initially low. Now I think the race has stabilized and will be won by Trump. This will also be a close race.
4. North Carolina 4pm -Clinton, outside of confidence interval
Like I have said before Clinton has a great ground game and organization. This will be close, but since President Obama and Michelle Obama have been to this state recently to get out the vote. I think it is going to come down to the better run campaign. A recount could be likely here, maybe not on a statewide level, but in certain areas.
5. Nevada 4 pm - Clinton
I don't think Trump has enough support among Hispanics to win here. Hillary Clinton has an ad with employees of the Trump Corporation talking about why they don't want him to be president. The legalization of marijuana is on the ballot here, and I think that will draw out younger, more socially liberal voters who may not have otherwise voted. I think there could be a recount in certain areas, because the race is so close.
6. Ohio 4pm - My model - Clinton, My personal opinion - Trump
Sometimes statistics don't work. Normally they are right, and work well. Since my model focuses on the average of polls which have mainly been Clinton leads before the the last few weeks. So while the difference between my models two means is less than 1%, it is too big to call a Trump lead. This doesn't mean my model is wrong or bad. Sometimes these things happen. If I had only included polls starting after the first debate, or did things different I could have gotten a result suggesting a Trump lead. But to protect my research I decided this things in September. This is a tough year. Even the experts are making different calls than each other. So while I think the FBI's announcements about both Hillary and Bill Clinton, and early voting data suggest that Trump will win Ohio, as a researcher I have to default to my model. If a few new polls come out on Sunday or Monday with Trump leads it may tip the scales in my model, and I may post an update. At the end of the day this was never about being right, but rather to test a model. So while my gut tells me Trump will win Ohio, I have to admit that my model says Clinton will win.
Safe Swing State Final Call
Swing States I feel are safe for the leading party are Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia. My model shows Clinton winning all of these states. These races will all probably be close, be Clinton should win all of them. It would be highly unlikely for new polls to change the results of my model in these states.
I downloaded the csv files at 10 am 11/05 from Pollster (run by Huffington Post).
Since these are swing states I am going to give an analysis on every state. Overall I think Clinton is running the better campaign. She has the support of a president that is viewer more favorably than unfavorably. She has a strong ground game and the support of multiple celebrities that I think will help turn out the younger and minority votes.
Full Results:
Note some confidence intervals were corrected to have a nonnegative beginning since probabilities can't be less than zero.
1. Colorado - Clinton win, Outside of the confidence interval
Colorado has voted for a democrat for president since 2004. Colorado uses a mail-in ballot system (ballots can be dropped off in person) which I think will increase turnout. Johnson is getting enough support (around 5%) to make it harder for Trump to win. Regardless of the recent FBI document releases, Clinton should have no problem winning.
2. New Hampshire - Clinton win, outside of the confidence interval
I think New Hampshire is close, but most of the older polls show a Clinton lead which means on average she is leading in my model. New Hampshire doesn't have early voting (absentee is available as needed) so it is hard to tell how people will actually vote. There is a really close senate race in New Hampshire that may flip from a republican incumbent to the democrat. Because the democrats have a good chance to gain a senate seat here, they will (and have) spent effort and money trying to win this seat and the state's electors. So I think there will be a Clinton win here, however close the race will be.
3. Michigan - Clinton win, outside of the confidence interval
Michigan is getting closer over time. However, Clinton has a great ground game in the swing states and her celebrity surrogates should turn out the vote her. I don't think Trump has enough support from members of the Republican party to help him get out the vote. There is no early voting in Michigan. This will be a close race, but I think Clinton ground game and organization is why she will win this state and ultimately the presidency.
4. Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania has gotten closer since the FBI announcements. There is no early voting in Pennsylvania. But she is still leading in basically all the polls (some of the time it is in the margin of error). If the republican nominee was less controversial and more moderate, this would probably be a closer race. But Donald Trump doesn't have enough support among independents in my opinion to win in most swing states.
5. Virginia
Virginia has been showing a consistent Clinton lead. I think the area close to Washington D.C. will have a strong Clinton lead, because Trump doesn't have a lot of support among federal employees. Obama won Virginia twice. I think Clinton will win again.
6. Wisconsin
Wisconsin may be the home of Paul Ryan, but it has voted for a Democrat for president in every 21st century election. Like most of the states the race is getting closer, but I still think Clinton will win here. Wisconsin also has same-day registration that will probably benefit Clinton more than Trump. I don't think Paul Ryan will lose his seat, but I don't think Trump will win the votes of everybody who votes for a least one Republican
Full Results:
Colorado based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.471294699683
Hillary's Std: 0.004746435642928872
Hillary's CI: (0.46974422586373638, 0.47284517350209559)
Trump's Mean: 0.415064661232
Trump's SD: 0.006151607836034659
Trump's CI: (0.41305517293112315, 0.41707414953300392)
Other Mean: 0.058935930613
Other Std: 0.008229305583452357
Other CI: (0.056247740186133093, 0.061624121039913431)
Johnson's Mean: 0.054704708472
Johnson's SD: 0.0077782639740753
Johnson's CI: (0.052163855596758547, 0.057245561347236205)
Michigan based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.516253556871
Hillary's Std: 0.009037563625769775
Hillary's CI: (0.51263784481006636, 0.51986926893286012)
Trump's Mean: 0.442293032229
Trump's SD: 0.009428492613825277
Trump's CI: (0.4385209188721837, 0.446065145585541)
Other Mean: 0.015130517008
Other Std: 0.004747167974335746
Other CI: (0.013231289161518625, 0.017029744854453369)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0263228938917
Johnson's SD: 0.0038995691388233867
Johnson's CI: (0.024762769974077541, 0.027883017809299544)
New Hampshire based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.492744025978
Hillary's Std: 0.00466779451328252
Hillary's CI: (0.49153224985058147, 0.49395580210505935)
Trump's Mean: 0.43275346221
Trump's SD: 0.00556498611490036
Trump's CI: (0.43130877193826578, 0.43419815248115956)
Other Mean: 0.0382835487485
Other Std: 0.005947772316775469
Other CI: (0.036739485811923628, 0.039827611685165035)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0362189630639
Johnson's SD: 0.005857012985192196
Johnson's CI: (0.034698461573938841, 0.037739464553906435)
Pennsylvania based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.499431200071
Hillary's Std: 0.0033953724888021474
Hillary's CI: (0.49848051324353293, 0.50038188689843299)
Trump's Mean: 0.435130943208
Trump's SD: 0.0037467479683491486
Trump's CI: (0.43408187305387341, 0.43618001336161999)
Other Mean: 0.0384127761622
Other Std: 0.0047163530136822155
Other CI: (0.037092221584308589, 0.039733330740078322)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0270250805591
Johnson's SD: 0.003966667570309904
Johnson's CI: (0.025914434048155514, 0.028135727069998492)
Virginia based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.500227647747
Hillary's Std: 0.00515263724294697
Hillary's CI: (0.49866934077383424, 0.50178595472015575)
Trump's Mean: 0.418424814401
Trump's SD: 0.005782379618990899
Trump's CI: (0.41667605506545191, 0.42017357373671893)
Other Mean: 0.0396046559353
Other Std: 0.005760302314560753
Other CI: (0.037862573416945891, 0.041346738453629253)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0417428819166
Johnson's SD: 0.006042677016940509
Johnson's CI: (0.039915401096990238, 0.043570362736273516)
Wisconsin based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.508592572807
Hillary's Std: 0.005190628103447107
Hillary's CI: (0.50655788397894475, 0.5106272616349038)
Trump's Mean: 0.449783183794
Trump's SD: 0.004841721322588826
Trump's CI: (0.44788526391113176, 0.45168110367731323)
Other Mean: 0.0150244708269
Other Std: 0.004100060835103732
Other CI: (0.013417276512683526, 0.016631665141174139)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0265997725719
Johnson's SD: 0.003358142358301173
Johnson's CI: (0.025283404956478558, 0.027916140187370035)
I downloaded the csv files at 10 am 11/05 from Pollster (run by Huffington Post).
Since these are swing states I am going to give an analysis on every state. Overall I think Clinton is running the better campaign. She has the support of a president that is viewer more favorably than unfavorably. She has a strong ground game and the support of multiple celebrities that I think will help turn out the younger and minority votes.
Full Results:
Note some confidence intervals were corrected to have a nonnegative beginning since probabilities can't be less than zero.
1. Colorado - Clinton win, Outside of the confidence interval
Colorado has voted for a democrat for president since 2004. Colorado uses a mail-in ballot system (ballots can be dropped off in person) which I think will increase turnout. Johnson is getting enough support (around 5%) to make it harder for Trump to win. Regardless of the recent FBI document releases, Clinton should have no problem winning.
2. New Hampshire - Clinton win, outside of the confidence interval
I think New Hampshire is close, but most of the older polls show a Clinton lead which means on average she is leading in my model. New Hampshire doesn't have early voting (absentee is available as needed) so it is hard to tell how people will actually vote. There is a really close senate race in New Hampshire that may flip from a republican incumbent to the democrat. Because the democrats have a good chance to gain a senate seat here, they will (and have) spent effort and money trying to win this seat and the state's electors. So I think there will be a Clinton win here, however close the race will be.
3. Michigan - Clinton win, outside of the confidence interval
Michigan is getting closer over time. However, Clinton has a great ground game in the swing states and her celebrity surrogates should turn out the vote her. I don't think Trump has enough support from members of the Republican party to help him get out the vote. There is no early voting in Michigan. This will be a close race, but I think Clinton ground game and organization is why she will win this state and ultimately the presidency.
4. Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania has gotten closer since the FBI announcements. There is no early voting in Pennsylvania. But she is still leading in basically all the polls (some of the time it is in the margin of error). If the republican nominee was less controversial and more moderate, this would probably be a closer race. But Donald Trump doesn't have enough support among independents in my opinion to win in most swing states.
5. Virginia
Virginia has been showing a consistent Clinton lead. I think the area close to Washington D.C. will have a strong Clinton lead, because Trump doesn't have a lot of support among federal employees. Obama won Virginia twice. I think Clinton will win again.
6. Wisconsin
Wisconsin may be the home of Paul Ryan, but it has voted for a Democrat for president in every 21st century election. Like most of the states the race is getting closer, but I still think Clinton will win here. Wisconsin also has same-day registration that will probably benefit Clinton more than Trump. I don't think Paul Ryan will lose his seat, but I don't think Trump will win the votes of everybody who votes for a least one Republican
Full Results:
Colorado based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.471294699683
Hillary's Std: 0.004746435642928872
Hillary's CI: (0.46974422586373638, 0.47284517350209559)
Trump's Mean: 0.415064661232
Trump's SD: 0.006151607836034659
Trump's CI: (0.41305517293112315, 0.41707414953300392)
Other Mean: 0.058935930613
Other Std: 0.008229305583452357
Other CI: (0.056247740186133093, 0.061624121039913431)
Johnson's Mean: 0.054704708472
Johnson's SD: 0.0077782639740753
Johnson's CI: (0.052163855596758547, 0.057245561347236205)
Michigan based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.516253556871
Hillary's Std: 0.009037563625769775
Hillary's CI: (0.51263784481006636, 0.51986926893286012)
Trump's Mean: 0.442293032229
Trump's SD: 0.009428492613825277
Trump's CI: (0.4385209188721837, 0.446065145585541)
Other Mean: 0.015130517008
Other Std: 0.004747167974335746
Other CI: (0.013231289161518625, 0.017029744854453369)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0263228938917
Johnson's SD: 0.0038995691388233867
Johnson's CI: (0.024762769974077541, 0.027883017809299544)
New Hampshire based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.492744025978
Hillary's Std: 0.00466779451328252
Hillary's CI: (0.49153224985058147, 0.49395580210505935)
Trump's Mean: 0.43275346221
Trump's SD: 0.00556498611490036
Trump's CI: (0.43130877193826578, 0.43419815248115956)
Other Mean: 0.0382835487485
Other Std: 0.005947772316775469
Other CI: (0.036739485811923628, 0.039827611685165035)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0362189630639
Johnson's SD: 0.005857012985192196
Johnson's CI: (0.034698461573938841, 0.037739464553906435)
Pennsylvania based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.499431200071
Hillary's Std: 0.0033953724888021474
Hillary's CI: (0.49848051324353293, 0.50038188689843299)
Trump's Mean: 0.435130943208
Trump's SD: 0.0037467479683491486
Trump's CI: (0.43408187305387341, 0.43618001336161999)
Other Mean: 0.0384127761622
Other Std: 0.0047163530136822155
Other CI: (0.037092221584308589, 0.039733330740078322)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0270250805591
Johnson's SD: 0.003966667570309904
Johnson's CI: (0.025914434048155514, 0.028135727069998492)
Virginia based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.500227647747
Hillary's Std: 0.00515263724294697
Hillary's CI: (0.49866934077383424, 0.50178595472015575)
Trump's Mean: 0.418424814401
Trump's SD: 0.005782379618990899
Trump's CI: (0.41667605506545191, 0.42017357373671893)
Other Mean: 0.0396046559353
Other Std: 0.005760302314560753
Other CI: (0.037862573416945891, 0.041346738453629253)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0417428819166
Johnson's SD: 0.006042677016940509
Johnson's CI: (0.039915401096990238, 0.043570362736273516)
Wisconsin based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.508592572807
Hillary's Std: 0.005190628103447107
Hillary's CI: (0.50655788397894475, 0.5106272616349038)
Trump's Mean: 0.449783183794
Trump's SD: 0.004841721322588826
Trump's CI: (0.44788526391113176, 0.45168110367731323)
Other Mean: 0.0150244708269
Other Std: 0.004100060835103732
Other CI: (0.013417276512683526, 0.016631665141174139)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0265997725719
Johnson's SD: 0.003358142358301173
Johnson's CI: (0.025283404956478558, 0.027916140187370035)
Blue State Final Call
As expected, all my blue states are showing a Clinton win. Here is my list of blue states: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington , Washington D.C. .
I pulled all states (except Oregon) at 6 PM CST 11/04. I forgot to download Oregon with the other states. The csv for Oregon was pulled at 9 PM CST 11/04. The data comes from Pollster (run by Huffington Post).
Washington D.C. was hard to predict, all the polls showed a Clinton lead by over 80 points. I don't think it will be that much of lead, and these polls weren't as scientific as others. My model shows that Johnson will get less than 1%, but this is because Johnson isn't included in all the polls, so his average is much lower than it should be. Overall, I think Johnson and other third party and independent candidates are going to be underestimated. Clinton should do fine in all of these states. My intervals may not as be as accurate in practice as they should be in theory.
Maine awards electors based on congressional districts. There isn't enough polling data to run a prediction with my model in each district. But based on trends and the poll data, I am calling a Clinton in the first district, and a Trump win in the second district.
Full Results:
Note some confidence intervals were corrected to have a nonnegative beginning since probabilities can't be less than zero.
California based on Washington
Hillary's Mean: 0.643981260157
Hillary's Std: 0.011788459691150548
Hillary's CI: (0.63881483483814383, 0.64914768547611568)
Trump's Mean: 0.35439115459
Trump's SD: 0.008447928387202108
Trump's CI: (0.35068875476389133, 0.3580935544164508)
Other Mean: 0.000744355997035
Other Std: 0.0001311334893556215
Other CI: (0.00068688526741278574, 0.00080182672665744727)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000883229255664
Johnson's SD: 0.0005885429486912348
Johnson's CI: (0.00062529367535148173, 0.0011411648359767553)
Connecticut based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.580005177032
Hillary's Std: 0.008468041245421245
Hillary's CI: (0.57373207955983563, 0.58627827450356762)
Trump's Mean: 0.419204988708
Trump's SD: 0.010102255857166162
Trump's CI: (0.41172127035587675, 0.42668870706079315)
Other Mean: 0.000397929164356
Other Std: 0.00017508437119380667
Other CI: (0.00026822723040622069, 0.0005276310983061283)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000391905095607
Johnson's SD: 0.0004904846440159411
Johnson's CI: (2.8555663171734311e-05, 0.00075525452804303271)
Delaware based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.596717526409
Hillary's Std: 0.01702757640668342
Hillary's CI: (0.58309287801026366, 0.61034217480722319)
Trump's Mean: 0.401460560223
Trump's SD: 0.015964917347335808
Trump's CI: (0.38868620053862418, 0.4142349199069148)
Other Mean: 0.000863153091932
Other Std: 0.00020904685562801525
Other CI: (0.00069588384358377055, 0.0010304223402804044)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000958760276555
Johnson's SD: 0.0005555959339843718
Johnson's CI: (0.00051419910875473223, 0.0014033214443551004)
Hawaii based on California
Hillary's Mean: 0.600529101565
Hillary's Std: 0.026376157366474206
Hillary's CI: (0.5746809423210707, 0.62637726080992107)
Trump's Mean: 0.330492029177
Trump's SD: 0.011578782803400526
Trump's CI: (0.31914503053717969, 0.34183902781665643)
Other Mean: 0.000811825360689
Other Std: 0.0002986761180839179
Other CI: (0.00051912814344531812, 0.0011045225779320296)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0681670438969
Johnson's SD: 0.0003152676677119398
Johnson's CI: (0.067858087259794711, 0.068476000534000062)
Illinois based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.608193674836
Hillary's Std: 0.00860764399907222
Hillary's CI: (0.59132300260625947, 0.62506434706610725)
Trump's Mean: 0.390575025393
Trump's SD: 0.024903371097511166
Trump's CI: (0.34176531494853613, 0.43938473583805138)
Other Mean: 0.000614079437418
Other Std: 0.0003640569301571484
Other CI: (0, 0.0013276179088481069)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000617220333105
Johnson's SD: 0.0005141628910999505
Johnson's CI: (-0.00039052041563792782, 0.0016249610818478582)
Maine based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.554920679955
Hillary's Std: 0.009962889471759483
Hillary's CI: (0.55003895381790491, 0.55980240609120591)
Trump's Mean: 0.444147536013
Trump's SD: 0.007917799598596812
Trump's CI: (0.44026788550001783, 0.44802718652504558)
Other Mean: 0.00044210514384
Other Std: 0.00014509311521836057
Other CI: (0.00037101082378212846, 0.00051319946389848201)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000489678889072
Johnson's SD: 0.0005983566104219639
Johnson's CI: (0.00019648953748786964, 0.00078286824065712621)
Maryland based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.65635635044
Hillary's Std: 0.012933730758001078
Hillary's CI: (0.64834008836658841, 0.66437261251253599)
Trump's Mean: 0.342515431404
Trump's SD: 0.013314944234577058
Trump's CI: (0.33426289511163193, 0.35076796769563817)
Other Mean: 0.000543028917037
Other Std: 0.000145322894559695
Other CI: (0.00045295850890915868, 0.00063309932516559576)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000585189239765
Johnson's SD: 0.00047522853022571117
Johnson's CI: (0.00029064495752208398, 0.00087973352200867191)
Massachusetts based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.646576616872
Hillary's Std: 0.010834247177274898
Hillary's CI: (0.64068716123918323, 0.65246607250391409)
Trump's Mean: 0.352305688688
Trump's SD: 0.011502467406263862
Trump's CI: (0.34605299107636112, 0.35855838630013137)
Other Mean: 0.000530441885137
Other Std: 0.00011871402493691301
Other CI: (0.00046590939189029384, 0.00059497437838459738)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000587252555068
Johnson's SD: 0.00043519934105186464
Johnson's CI: (0.00035067984554573164, 0.00082382526458984237)
Minnesota based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.54958154871
Hillary's Std: 0.009591672882884771
Hillary's CI: (0.54391333641875761, 0.55524976100112888)
Trump's Mean: 0.449007393545
Trump's SD: 0.01036292812884155
Trump's CI: (0.44288340690470307, 0.45513138018523203)
Other Mean: 0.00066946358295
Other Std: 0.00016678825408650576
Other CI: (0.0005708998346467349, 0.00076802733125381248)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000741594162139
Johnson's SD: 0.0005784501091473651
Johnson's CI: (0.00039975827401574602, 0.0010834300502618678)
New Mexico based on California
Hillary's Mean: 0.56329581395
Hillary's Std: 0.014829667575552168
Hillary's CI: (0.55453220148605564, 0.57205942641382279)
Trump's Mean: 0.434519880992
Trump's SD: 0.014338143627699602
Trump's CI: (0.42604673528136106, 0.44299302670218976)
Other Mean: 0.00101114791519
Other Std: 0.00028675818539558037
Other CI: (0.00084168777086786534, 0.00118060805951901)
Johnson's Mean: 0.00117315714309
Johnson's SD: 0.001056446261896771
Johnson's CI: (0.0005488487706343415, 0.0017974655155497418)
New Jersey based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.588651161087
Hillary's Std: 0.009598121454586763
Hillary's CI: (0.58297913800311185, 0.59432318417012808)
Trump's Mean: 0.409499016141
Trump's SD: 0.011324038290934098
Trump's CI: (0.40280706012767226, 0.41619097215433537)
Other Mean: 0.000859314144934
Other Std: 0.00018713682335640282
Other CI: (0.00074872538161494971, 0.00096990290825369873)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000990508627442
Johnson's SD: 0.0006625499370829645
Johnson's CI: (0.00059897383025338756, 0.0013820434246302287)
New York based on New Jersey
Hillary's Mean: 0.624806167053
Hillary's Std: 0.00944055513674717
Hillary's CI: (0.61967431712251009, 0.62993801698333529)
Trump's Mean: 0.373904862556
Trump's SD: 0.00914962169224297
Trump's CI: (0.36893116294104761, 0.37887856217011834)
Other Mean: 0.000615458641786
Other Std: 0.0001368080945357927
Other CI: (0.00054109028100077943, 0.00068982700257143488)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000673511749708
Johnson's SD: 0.0004983181338729853
Johnson's CI: (0.00040262790404490195, 0.00094439559537170094)
Oregon based on California 9PM
Hillary's Mean: 0.538824660206
Hillary's Std: 0.012220226410116905
Hillary's CI: (0.53283685929383773, 0.54481246111721493)
Trump's Mean: 0.404451547761
Trump's SD: 0.01203849539011549
Trump's CI: (0.39855279341330324, 0.41035030210964213)
Other Mean: 0.000894837899252
Other Std: 0.0005906034868711757
Other CI: (0.00060544750839955949, 0.001184228290105199)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0558289541337
Johnson's SD: 0.010526319359729506
Johnson's CI: (0.05067115242503948, 0.060986755842457753)
Rhode Island based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.545793847551
Hillary's Std: 0.015430193305687326
Hillary's CI: (0.53067253597410835, 0.56091515912774648)
Trump's Mean: 0.403677661193
Trump's SD: 0.006659121164802198
Trump's CI: (0.39715184236691037, 0.41020348001861107)
Other Mean: 0.000608607258022
Other Std: 0.00023607789792239015
Other CI: (0.00037725516928540802, 0.000839959346759216)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0499198839983
Johnson's SD: 0.0002447591833555822
Johnson's CI: (0.049680024406158353, 0.050159743590420726)
Vermont based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.65908302148
Hillary's Std: 0.02760872715221073
Hillary's CI: (0.63699184472108095, 0.68117419823919967)
Trump's Mean: 0.337771038269
Trump's SD: 0.02317095119302332
Trump's CI: (0.31923075657948585, 0.35631131995776744)
Other Mean: 0.00120345459908
Other Std: 0.0003957384142665961
Other CI: (0.00088680373677534096, 0.0015201054613869528)
Johnson's Mean: 0.00194248565215
Johnson's SD: 0.001411108191319475
Johnson's CI: (0.00081338468676746701, 0.0030715866175362303)
Washington based on California
Hillary's Mean: 0.593685476484
Hillary's Std: 0.016084741901446712
Hillary's CI: (0.58418017611954165, 0.60319077684780764)
Trump's Mean: 0.404736266484
Trump's SD: 0.01626792218952608
Trump's CI: (0.39512271547647382, 0.41434981749144395)
Other Mean: 0.000753853339173
Other Std: 0.00022486235389336474
Other CI: (0.00062097062166142024, 0.00088673605668530093)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000824403693193
Johnson's SD: 0.0007924387706438401
Johnson's CI: (0.00035611091104561338, 0.0012926964753407484)
Washington DC based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.947750549184
Hillary's Std: 0.0035602373862585286
Hillary's CI: (0.9452834758795372, 0.95021762248874553)
Trump's Mean: 0.051542459241
Trump's SD: 0.001866616184006367
Trump's CI: (0.050248983986963161, 0.052835934494970593)
Other Mean: 0.000364704565373
Other SD: 8.438852334586375e-05
Other CI: (0.00030622737675461189, 0.00042318175399086655)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000342287009519
Johnson's Std: 3.0089335815500844e-05
Johnson's CI: (0.00032143654672971638, 0.00036313747230856073)
I pulled all states (except Oregon) at 6 PM CST 11/04. I forgot to download Oregon with the other states. The csv for Oregon was pulled at 9 PM CST 11/04. The data comes from Pollster (run by Huffington Post).
Washington D.C. was hard to predict, all the polls showed a Clinton lead by over 80 points. I don't think it will be that much of lead, and these polls weren't as scientific as others. My model shows that Johnson will get less than 1%, but this is because Johnson isn't included in all the polls, so his average is much lower than it should be. Overall, I think Johnson and other third party and independent candidates are going to be underestimated. Clinton should do fine in all of these states. My intervals may not as be as accurate in practice as they should be in theory.
Maine awards electors based on congressional districts. There isn't enough polling data to run a prediction with my model in each district. But based on trends and the poll data, I am calling a Clinton in the first district, and a Trump win in the second district.
Full Results:
Note some confidence intervals were corrected to have a nonnegative beginning since probabilities can't be less than zero.
California based on Washington
Hillary's Mean: 0.643981260157
Hillary's Std: 0.011788459691150548
Hillary's CI: (0.63881483483814383, 0.64914768547611568)
Trump's Mean: 0.35439115459
Trump's SD: 0.008447928387202108
Trump's CI: (0.35068875476389133, 0.3580935544164508)
Other Mean: 0.000744355997035
Other Std: 0.0001311334893556215
Other CI: (0.00068688526741278574, 0.00080182672665744727)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000883229255664
Johnson's SD: 0.0005885429486912348
Johnson's CI: (0.00062529367535148173, 0.0011411648359767553)
Connecticut based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.580005177032
Hillary's Std: 0.008468041245421245
Hillary's CI: (0.57373207955983563, 0.58627827450356762)
Trump's Mean: 0.419204988708
Trump's SD: 0.010102255857166162
Trump's CI: (0.41172127035587675, 0.42668870706079315)
Other Mean: 0.000397929164356
Other Std: 0.00017508437119380667
Other CI: (0.00026822723040622069, 0.0005276310983061283)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000391905095607
Johnson's SD: 0.0004904846440159411
Johnson's CI: (2.8555663171734311e-05, 0.00075525452804303271)
Delaware based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.596717526409
Hillary's Std: 0.01702757640668342
Hillary's CI: (0.58309287801026366, 0.61034217480722319)
Trump's Mean: 0.401460560223
Trump's SD: 0.015964917347335808
Trump's CI: (0.38868620053862418, 0.4142349199069148)
Other Mean: 0.000863153091932
Other Std: 0.00020904685562801525
Other CI: (0.00069588384358377055, 0.0010304223402804044)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000958760276555
Johnson's SD: 0.0005555959339843718
Johnson's CI: (0.00051419910875473223, 0.0014033214443551004)
Hawaii based on California
Hillary's Mean: 0.600529101565
Hillary's Std: 0.026376157366474206
Hillary's CI: (0.5746809423210707, 0.62637726080992107)
Trump's Mean: 0.330492029177
Trump's SD: 0.011578782803400526
Trump's CI: (0.31914503053717969, 0.34183902781665643)
Other Mean: 0.000811825360689
Other Std: 0.0002986761180839179
Other CI: (0.00051912814344531812, 0.0011045225779320296)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0681670438969
Johnson's SD: 0.0003152676677119398
Johnson's CI: (0.067858087259794711, 0.068476000534000062)
Illinois based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.608193674836
Hillary's Std: 0.00860764399907222
Hillary's CI: (0.59132300260625947, 0.62506434706610725)
Trump's Mean: 0.390575025393
Trump's SD: 0.024903371097511166
Trump's CI: (0.34176531494853613, 0.43938473583805138)
Other Mean: 0.000614079437418
Other Std: 0.0003640569301571484
Other CI: (0, 0.0013276179088481069)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000617220333105
Johnson's SD: 0.0005141628910999505
Johnson's CI: (-0.00039052041563792782, 0.0016249610818478582)
Maine based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.554920679955
Hillary's Std: 0.009962889471759483
Hillary's CI: (0.55003895381790491, 0.55980240609120591)
Trump's Mean: 0.444147536013
Trump's SD: 0.007917799598596812
Trump's CI: (0.44026788550001783, 0.44802718652504558)
Other Mean: 0.00044210514384
Other Std: 0.00014509311521836057
Other CI: (0.00037101082378212846, 0.00051319946389848201)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000489678889072
Johnson's SD: 0.0005983566104219639
Johnson's CI: (0.00019648953748786964, 0.00078286824065712621)
Maryland based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.65635635044
Hillary's Std: 0.012933730758001078
Hillary's CI: (0.64834008836658841, 0.66437261251253599)
Trump's Mean: 0.342515431404
Trump's SD: 0.013314944234577058
Trump's CI: (0.33426289511163193, 0.35076796769563817)
Other Mean: 0.000543028917037
Other Std: 0.000145322894559695
Other CI: (0.00045295850890915868, 0.00063309932516559576)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000585189239765
Johnson's SD: 0.00047522853022571117
Johnson's CI: (0.00029064495752208398, 0.00087973352200867191)
Massachusetts based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.646576616872
Hillary's Std: 0.010834247177274898
Hillary's CI: (0.64068716123918323, 0.65246607250391409)
Trump's Mean: 0.352305688688
Trump's SD: 0.011502467406263862
Trump's CI: (0.34605299107636112, 0.35855838630013137)
Other Mean: 0.000530441885137
Other Std: 0.00011871402493691301
Other CI: (0.00046590939189029384, 0.00059497437838459738)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000587252555068
Johnson's SD: 0.00043519934105186464
Johnson's CI: (0.00035067984554573164, 0.00082382526458984237)
Minnesota based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.54958154871
Hillary's Std: 0.009591672882884771
Hillary's CI: (0.54391333641875761, 0.55524976100112888)
Trump's Mean: 0.449007393545
Trump's SD: 0.01036292812884155
Trump's CI: (0.44288340690470307, 0.45513138018523203)
Other Mean: 0.00066946358295
Other Std: 0.00016678825408650576
Other CI: (0.0005708998346467349, 0.00076802733125381248)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000741594162139
Johnson's SD: 0.0005784501091473651
Johnson's CI: (0.00039975827401574602, 0.0010834300502618678)
New Mexico based on California
Hillary's Mean: 0.56329581395
Hillary's Std: 0.014829667575552168
Hillary's CI: (0.55453220148605564, 0.57205942641382279)
Trump's Mean: 0.434519880992
Trump's SD: 0.014338143627699602
Trump's CI: (0.42604673528136106, 0.44299302670218976)
Other Mean: 0.00101114791519
Other Std: 0.00028675818539558037
Other CI: (0.00084168777086786534, 0.00118060805951901)
Johnson's Mean: 0.00117315714309
Johnson's SD: 0.001056446261896771
Johnson's CI: (0.0005488487706343415, 0.0017974655155497418)
New Jersey based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.588651161087
Hillary's Std: 0.009598121454586763
Hillary's CI: (0.58297913800311185, 0.59432318417012808)
Trump's Mean: 0.409499016141
Trump's SD: 0.011324038290934098
Trump's CI: (0.40280706012767226, 0.41619097215433537)
Other Mean: 0.000859314144934
Other Std: 0.00018713682335640282
Other CI: (0.00074872538161494971, 0.00096990290825369873)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000990508627442
Johnson's SD: 0.0006625499370829645
Johnson's CI: (0.00059897383025338756, 0.0013820434246302287)
New York based on New Jersey
Hillary's Mean: 0.624806167053
Hillary's Std: 0.00944055513674717
Hillary's CI: (0.61967431712251009, 0.62993801698333529)
Trump's Mean: 0.373904862556
Trump's SD: 0.00914962169224297
Trump's CI: (0.36893116294104761, 0.37887856217011834)
Other Mean: 0.000615458641786
Other Std: 0.0001368080945357927
Other CI: (0.00054109028100077943, 0.00068982700257143488)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000673511749708
Johnson's SD: 0.0004983181338729853
Johnson's CI: (0.00040262790404490195, 0.00094439559537170094)
Oregon based on California 9PM
Hillary's Mean: 0.538824660206
Hillary's Std: 0.012220226410116905
Hillary's CI: (0.53283685929383773, 0.54481246111721493)
Trump's Mean: 0.404451547761
Trump's SD: 0.01203849539011549
Trump's CI: (0.39855279341330324, 0.41035030210964213)
Other Mean: 0.000894837899252
Other Std: 0.0005906034868711757
Other CI: (0.00060544750839955949, 0.001184228290105199)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0558289541337
Johnson's SD: 0.010526319359729506
Johnson's CI: (0.05067115242503948, 0.060986755842457753)
Rhode Island based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.545793847551
Hillary's Std: 0.015430193305687326
Hillary's CI: (0.53067253597410835, 0.56091515912774648)
Trump's Mean: 0.403677661193
Trump's SD: 0.006659121164802198
Trump's CI: (0.39715184236691037, 0.41020348001861107)
Other Mean: 0.000608607258022
Other Std: 0.00023607789792239015
Other CI: (0.00037725516928540802, 0.000839959346759216)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0499198839983
Johnson's SD: 0.0002447591833555822
Johnson's CI: (0.049680024406158353, 0.050159743590420726)
Vermont based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.65908302148
Hillary's Std: 0.02760872715221073
Hillary's CI: (0.63699184472108095, 0.68117419823919967)
Trump's Mean: 0.337771038269
Trump's SD: 0.02317095119302332
Trump's CI: (0.31923075657948585, 0.35631131995776744)
Other Mean: 0.00120345459908
Other Std: 0.0003957384142665961
Other CI: (0.00088680373677534096, 0.0015201054613869528)
Johnson's Mean: 0.00194248565215
Johnson's SD: 0.001411108191319475
Johnson's CI: (0.00081338468676746701, 0.0030715866175362303)
Washington based on California
Hillary's Mean: 0.593685476484
Hillary's Std: 0.016084741901446712
Hillary's CI: (0.58418017611954165, 0.60319077684780764)
Trump's Mean: 0.404736266484
Trump's SD: 0.01626792218952608
Trump's CI: (0.39512271547647382, 0.41434981749144395)
Other Mean: 0.000753853339173
Other Std: 0.00022486235389336474
Other CI: (0.00062097062166142024, 0.00088673605668530093)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000824403693193
Johnson's SD: 0.0007924387706438401
Johnson's CI: (0.00035611091104561338, 0.0012926964753407484)
Washington DC based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.947750549184
Hillary's Std: 0.0035602373862585286
Hillary's CI: (0.9452834758795372, 0.95021762248874553)
Trump's Mean: 0.051542459241
Trump's SD: 0.001866616184006367
Trump's CI: (0.050248983986963161, 0.052835934494970593)
Other Mean: 0.000364704565373
Other SD: 8.438852334586375e-05
Other CI: (0.00030622737675461189, 0.00042318175399086655)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000342287009519
Johnson's Std: 3.0089335815500844e-05
Johnson's CI: (0.00032143654672971638, 0.00036313747230856073)
Red State Final Call
As expected my model is predicting a Trump win in every single red state.
Here is the list of states that I am calling red states.
Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana,Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming
I pulled all states except Missouri at 3 PM CST on 11/05. I forgot to download Missouri, and didn't download it until 4:55 PM CST 11/05.
I am concerned with how my model attempted to predict other candidates besides Trump or Clinton. Since polling data can include any variety of candidates, it's hard to get an idea of the support for third party and independent candidates. In Utah, I think I didn't get a good prediction of the support for Evan Mcmullin because not all polls included him. I don't think my prediction of percentages will be accurate in Utah, but I think Trump will still win there. Also I think the intervals aren't wide enough and don't reflect the volatility of the support between the two candidates. But I think my numbers should be relatively similar in comparison to actual results. Texas and Georgia are going to be really close, and probably closer than my model suggests. I feel real confident that Trump will win all of these states. Nebraska awards its electors by congressional district. There isn't enough polling with each district to run a prediction with my model, but I am calling that Trump will win all three districts.
Full Results:
Note some confidence intervals were corrected to have a nonnegative beginning since probabilities can't be less than zero.
Alabama based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.393188770471
Hillary's Std: 0.004884039172571224
Hillary's CI: (0.38999792351153734, 0.39637961742975231)
Trump's Mean: 0.575111349764
Trump's SD: 0.009747199026261606
Trump's CI: (0.56874329674982438, 0.58147940277756882)
Other Mean: 0.000343605754035
Other Std: 0.0001310482799589912
Other CI: (0.00025798911771622866, 0.00042922239035325861)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0313562740116
Johnson's SD: 0.0001364326195419781
Johnson's CI: (0.031267139671417608, 0.031445408351830094)
Alaska based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.404585429143
Hillary's Std: 0.01707563754239364
Hillary's CI: (0.39342955094451543, 0.41574130734194986)
Trump's Mean: 0.518845322289
Trump's SD: 0.016895533096164546
Trump's CI: (0.5078071101667605, 0.52988353441215175)
Other Mean: 0.000666714871178
Other Std: 0.0006320553919129383
Other CI: (0.00025377960305015808, 0.0010796501393059632)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0759025336961
Johnson's SD: 0.01945616166796905
Johnson's CI: (0.063191408313930567, 0.088613659078335946)
Arkansas based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.40651650871
Hillary's Std: 0.012808176039772442
Hillary's CI: (0.39764105863200661, 0.41539195878847113)
Trump's Mean: 0.592768516806
Trump's SD: 0.008152647331157323
Trump's CI: (0.58711912424827672, 0.59841790936310191)
Other Mean: 0.000342857596293
Other Std: 0.00015085641254669453
Other CI: (0.0002383213567553619, 0.00044739383583149855)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000372116887779
Johnson's SD: 0.0004758226868116182
Johnson's CI: (4.2394647096303693e-05, 0.00070183912846086434)
Georgia based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.484878594052
Hillary's Std: 0.0037833149520454367
Hillary's CI: (0.48350163321355605, 0.48625555489051459)
Trump's Mean: 0.514644272505
Trump's SD: 0.004886024494625716
Trump's CI: (0.5128659737195379, 0.5164225712908358)
Other Mean: 0.000212339366093
Other Std: 6.403003420916513e-05
Other CI: (0.00018903523976215809, 0.00023564349242420027)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000264794076685
Johnson's SD: 0.0003475621414771496
Johnson's CI: (0.00013829668912439507, 0.00039129146424523518)
Idaho based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.356144455456
Hillary's Std: 0.014522979442189568
Hillary's CI: (0.34538587941869336, 0.36690303149256209)
Trump's Mean: 0.579015694083
Trump's SD: 0.017372916493267755
Trump's CI: (0.56614589392843828, 0.59188549423843528)
Other Mean: 0.000648398504609
Other Std: 0.00039050054782646605
Other CI: (0.00035911696613585853, 0.00093768004308285096)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0641914519563
Johnson's SD: 0.03865955423482011
Johnson's CI: (0.035552579647449956, 0.092830324265202158)
Indiana based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.405403236381
Hillary's Std: 0.006541524145700409
Hillary's CI: (0.40197663944683987, 0.40882983331482597)
Trump's Mean: 0.537793991661
Trump's SD: 0.009842825204096592
Trump's CI: (0.53263809925461936, 0.542949884066529)
Other Mean: 0.000695215435718
Other Std: 0.0006015059716535377
Other CI: (0.00038013312885172535, 0.0010102977425835982)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0561075565229
Johnson's SD: 0.012523546954499424
Johnson's CI: (0.049547441992806286, 0.062667671052943977)
Kansas based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.395653912693
Hillary's Std: 0.010024485549690425
Hillary's CI: (0.38972992916095378, 0.40157789622558521)
Trump's Mean: 0.53843113598
Trump's SD: 0.011534595605415848
Trump's CI: (0.53161475083182474, 0.54524752112805497)
Other Mean: 0.000659149513268
Other Std: 0.0001660379628363331
Other CI: (0.00056102915061128614, 0.00075726987592452907)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0652558018135
Johnson's SD: 0.016437758320796966
Johnson's CI: (0.055541885910517279, 0.0749697177165283)
Kentucky based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.369050876315
Hillary's Std: 0.01012860396436351
Hillary's CI: (0.36203224082975666, 0.37606951179929132)
Trump's Mean: 0.596808289752
Trump's SD: 0.006806321759214408
Trump's CI: (0.59209183607411309, 0.60152474342996276)
Other Mean: 0.00036953743184
Other Std: 0.00013308025022029565
Other CI: (0.00027731921797676445, 0.00046175564570248426)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0337712965016
Johnson's SD: 0.00013806888034872898
Johnson's CI: (0.033675621406949088, 0.033866971596248074)
Louisiana based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.421872562788
Hillary's Std: 0.006890009769311026
Hillary's CI: (0.41838580082850374, 0.42535932474732074)
Trump's Mean: 0.576883885061
Trump's SD: 0.010861208357173776
Trump's CI: (0.57138745626028875, 0.58238031386164746)
Other Mean: 0.000569477850528
Other Std: 0.00010220308160147071
Other CI: (0.00051775690542099726, 0.00062119879563415643)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000674074300592
Johnson's SD: 0.0004106695345988155
Johnson's CI: (0.00046625066041316944, 0.00088189794077118717)
Mississippi based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.43058880567
Hillary's Std: 0.014706315976923736
Hillary's CI: (0.41969441452291484, 0.44148319681662057)
Trump's Mean: 0.546440509162
Trump's SD: 0.008325704278984452
Trump's CI: (0.54027285445283157, 0.55260816387099043)
Other Mean: 0.000268970383792
Other Std: 0.00011774487246930567
Other CI: (0.00018174536440331116, 0.00035619540317981426)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0227017147845
Johnson's SD: 0.00011797121050101217
Johnson's CI: (0.022614322094662197, 0.022789107474397333)
Missouri based on Texas 4:55 pm
Hillary's Mean: 0.454432449248
Hillary's Std: 0.006453159689686279
Hillary's CI: (0.44178448866979675, 0.46708040982633831)
Trump's Mean: 0.544593349302
Trump's SD: 0.026532480649097148
Trump's CI: (0.49259064280953568, 0.5965960557950083)
Other Mean: 0.000406904555801
Other Std: 0.0002780465900655429
Other CI: (0, 0.00095186585835395224)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000567296893859
Johnson's SD: 0.00048795602804317905
Johnson's CI: (0, 0.0015236731348630666)
Montana based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.377651956443
Hillary's Std: 0.017423911337807695
Hillary's CI: (0.36237950541028918, 0.39292440747548174)
Trump's Mean: 0.550346192812
Trump's SD: 0.01689899225347863
Trump's CI: (0.5355338451889029, 0.565158540435309)
Other Mean: 0.00072001850745
Other Std: 0.00021646946217911538
Other CI: (0.00053027814450360257, 0.00090975887039657132)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0712818322376
Johnson's SD: 0.021430476755732404
Johnson's CI: (0.052497536305856587, 0.090066128169260476)
Nebraska based on Indiana
Hillary's Mean: 0.393675990239
Hillary's Std: 0.011382967944535824
Hillary's CI: (0.3845678862861821, 0.40278409419168215)
Trump's Mean: 0.56699120724
Trump's SD: 0.015207723109234699
Trump's CI: (0.55482271799898497, 0.57915969648095278)
Other Mean: 0.00035951252738
Other Std: 0.0002523684586810549
Other CI: (0.00015757941404272117, 0.00056144564071794424)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0389732899937
Johnson's SD: 0.02270200730877045
Johnson's CI: (0.020808234666155265, 0.057138345321281814)
Nebraska based on Indiana
Hillary's Mean: 0.38739126417
Hillary's Std: 0.009687517716808291
Hillary's CI: (0.38021478248578039, 0.39456774585397986)
Trump's Mean: 0.564454507755
Trump's SD: 0.011949776630342294
Trump's CI: (0.55560215200953822, 0.57330686349985971)
Other Mean: 0.000461337394718
Other Std: 0.00023503694121999443
Other CI: (0.00028722279146657203, 0.00063545199796919381)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0476928906807
Johnson's SD: 0.021008659086211988
Johnson's CI: (0.032129744212531411, 0.063256037148874913)
North Dakota based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.351024206102
Hillary's Std: 0.011476616751116293
Hillary's CI: (0.34096469282966863, 0.36108371937349298)
Trump's Mean: 0.565062469316
Trump's SD: 0.021272576801501828
Trump's CI: (0.5464165762528389, 0.58370836237816459)
Other Mean: 0.000839133245829
Other Std: 0.00022667963054172477
Other CI: (0.00064044344016978179, 0.0010378230514885688)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0830741913371
Johnson's SD: 0.02244128342363073
Johnson's CI: (0.063403900576808336, 0.10274448209736819)
Oklahoma based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.374790618668
Hillary's Std: 0.007718724353599492
Hillary's CI: (0.37000659165782729, 0.37957464567800564)
Trump's Mean: 0.624205071901
Trump's SD: 0.012369040441231122
Trump's CI: (0.61653880208140466, 0.63187134172110326)
Other Mean: 0.000467717827352
Other Std: 0.0001339854255874286
Other CI: (0.00038467432617200385, 0.00055076132853260529)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000536591603477
Johnson's SD: 0.0004569737757494125
Johnson's CI: (0.00025336152737430147, 0.00081982167958019061)
South Carolina based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.469357920125
Hillary's Std: 0.009754240997712748
Hillary's CI: (0.46383904014555949, 0.47487680010531214)
Trump's Mean: 0.529680073237
Trump's SD: 0.012691847200952296
Trump's CI: (0.52249911662089021, 0.53686102985256234)
Other Mean: 0.000448332724221
Other Std: 0.00011297736042585149
Other CI: (0.00038441093955479813, 0.00051225450888627358)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000513673913617
Johnson's SD: 0.0004115522361602333
Johnson's CI: (0.00028082059398426389, 0.00074652723325033146)
South Dakota based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.377402035799
Hillary's Std: 0.013882817840935813
Hillary's CI: (0.3652334330346198, 0.38957063856321766)
Trump's Mean: 0.549135127948
Trump's SD: 0.016386934792856977
Trump's CI: (0.53477161023065645, 0.56349864566445207)
Other Mean: 0.000734628362535
Other Std: 0.00020462534033501644
Other CI: (0.00055526963935847279, 0.00091398708571206527)
Johnson's Mean: 0.072728207891
Johnson's SD: 0.02025790869316661
Johnson's CI: (0.054971694296488779, 0.090484721485494399)
Tennessee based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.41918997481
Hillary's Std: 0.012779748680708514
Hillary's CI: (0.41163776473865543, 0.42674218488198912)
Trump's Mean: 0.578327147906
Trump's SD: 0.013889583882394684
Trump's CI: (0.57011907919444127, 0.58653521661758612)
Other Mean: 0.000976975199669
Other Std: 0.00021624130065239224
Other CI: (0.0008491871054353518, 0.0011047632939033699)
Johnson's Mean: 0.00150590208399
Johnson's SD: 0.0009042835118980418
Johnson's CI: (0.00097151449807077097, 0.0020402896699186772)
Texas based on Georgia
Hillary's Mean: 0.460355680995
Hillary's Std: 0.009718193448711913
Hillary's CI: (0.4559859285868903, 0.4647254334026622)
Trump's Mean: 0.53892596021
Trump's SD: 0.008306557734961435
Trump's CI: (0.53519094496744612, 0.54266097545308178)
Other Mean: 0.000327342436541
Other Std: 7.566561575304751e-05
Other CI: (0.00029331965150604291, 0.00036136522157542196)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000391016358419
Johnson's SD: 0.00033359325299124956
Johnson's CI: (0.00024101729447709405, 0.00054101542236088026)
Utah based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.371390755953
Hillary's Std: 0.010827102012237806
Hillary's CI: (0.36638898192478164, 0.37639252998170458)
Trump's Mean: 0.535839287668
Trump's SD: 0.023384674132508727
Trump's CI: (0.5250363178974069, 0.54664225743835004)
Other Mean: 0.00982005311501
Other Std: 0.004181130919075871
Other CI: (0.0078885046713915493, 0.011751601558627504)
Johnson's Mean: 0.00133278347582
Johnson's SD: 0.0010128145324902358
Johnson's CI: (0.0008648956311729768, 0.001800671320463076)
McMullin's Mean: 0.0816171197881
McMullin's SD: 0.020915638814322644
McMullin's CI: (0.071954765180888683, 0.091279474395212903)
West Virginia based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.379999736002
Hillary's Std: 0.01471041671424029
Hillary's CI: (0.37038910701663008, 0.38961036498828805)
Trump's Mean: 0.619022009811
Trump's SD: 0.01392569093153737
Trump's CI: (0.60992405891576684, 0.6281199607061998)
Other Mean: 0.000448285952261
Other Std: 0.00017151491367416448
Other CI: (0.00033623160105714621, 0.00056034030346571869)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000529968234296
Johnson's SD: 0.0005939851726214642
Johnson's CI: (0.0001419050523999269, 0.00091803141619251137)
Wyoming based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.315364114792
Hillary's Std: 0.017090773498049276
Hillary's CI: (0.29861546452962051, 0.33211276505372878)
Trump's Mean: 0.623692479338
Trump's SD: 0.019907285213526155
Trump's CI: (0.60418369831370333, 0.64320126036218139)
Other Mean: 0.000609434058704
Other Std: 0.00028860996005424395
Other CI: (0.00032660149506089905, 0.00089226662234676078)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0603339718117
Johnson's SD: 0.028572386045370123
Johnson's CI: (0.032333548011028987, 0.088334395612329253
Here is the list of states that I am calling red states.
Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana,Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming
I pulled all states except Missouri at 3 PM CST on 11/05. I forgot to download Missouri, and didn't download it until 4:55 PM CST 11/05.
I am concerned with how my model attempted to predict other candidates besides Trump or Clinton. Since polling data can include any variety of candidates, it's hard to get an idea of the support for third party and independent candidates. In Utah, I think I didn't get a good prediction of the support for Evan Mcmullin because not all polls included him. I don't think my prediction of percentages will be accurate in Utah, but I think Trump will still win there. Also I think the intervals aren't wide enough and don't reflect the volatility of the support between the two candidates. But I think my numbers should be relatively similar in comparison to actual results. Texas and Georgia are going to be really close, and probably closer than my model suggests. I feel real confident that Trump will win all of these states. Nebraska awards its electors by congressional district. There isn't enough polling with each district to run a prediction with my model, but I am calling that Trump will win all three districts.
Full Results:
Note some confidence intervals were corrected to have a nonnegative beginning since probabilities can't be less than zero.
Alabama based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.393188770471
Hillary's Std: 0.004884039172571224
Hillary's CI: (0.38999792351153734, 0.39637961742975231)
Trump's Mean: 0.575111349764
Trump's SD: 0.009747199026261606
Trump's CI: (0.56874329674982438, 0.58147940277756882)
Other Mean: 0.000343605754035
Other Std: 0.0001310482799589912
Other CI: (0.00025798911771622866, 0.00042922239035325861)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0313562740116
Johnson's SD: 0.0001364326195419781
Johnson's CI: (0.031267139671417608, 0.031445408351830094)
Alaska based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.404585429143
Hillary's Std: 0.01707563754239364
Hillary's CI: (0.39342955094451543, 0.41574130734194986)
Trump's Mean: 0.518845322289
Trump's SD: 0.016895533096164546
Trump's CI: (0.5078071101667605, 0.52988353441215175)
Other Mean: 0.000666714871178
Other Std: 0.0006320553919129383
Other CI: (0.00025377960305015808, 0.0010796501393059632)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0759025336961
Johnson's SD: 0.01945616166796905
Johnson's CI: (0.063191408313930567, 0.088613659078335946)
Arkansas based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.40651650871
Hillary's Std: 0.012808176039772442
Hillary's CI: (0.39764105863200661, 0.41539195878847113)
Trump's Mean: 0.592768516806
Trump's SD: 0.008152647331157323
Trump's CI: (0.58711912424827672, 0.59841790936310191)
Other Mean: 0.000342857596293
Other Std: 0.00015085641254669453
Other CI: (0.0002383213567553619, 0.00044739383583149855)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000372116887779
Johnson's SD: 0.0004758226868116182
Johnson's CI: (4.2394647096303693e-05, 0.00070183912846086434)
Georgia based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.484878594052
Hillary's Std: 0.0037833149520454367
Hillary's CI: (0.48350163321355605, 0.48625555489051459)
Trump's Mean: 0.514644272505
Trump's SD: 0.004886024494625716
Trump's CI: (0.5128659737195379, 0.5164225712908358)
Other Mean: 0.000212339366093
Other Std: 6.403003420916513e-05
Other CI: (0.00018903523976215809, 0.00023564349242420027)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000264794076685
Johnson's SD: 0.0003475621414771496
Johnson's CI: (0.00013829668912439507, 0.00039129146424523518)
Idaho based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.356144455456
Hillary's Std: 0.014522979442189568
Hillary's CI: (0.34538587941869336, 0.36690303149256209)
Trump's Mean: 0.579015694083
Trump's SD: 0.017372916493267755
Trump's CI: (0.56614589392843828, 0.59188549423843528)
Other Mean: 0.000648398504609
Other Std: 0.00039050054782646605
Other CI: (0.00035911696613585853, 0.00093768004308285096)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0641914519563
Johnson's SD: 0.03865955423482011
Johnson's CI: (0.035552579647449956, 0.092830324265202158)
Indiana based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.405403236381
Hillary's Std: 0.006541524145700409
Hillary's CI: (0.40197663944683987, 0.40882983331482597)
Trump's Mean: 0.537793991661
Trump's SD: 0.009842825204096592
Trump's CI: (0.53263809925461936, 0.542949884066529)
Other Mean: 0.000695215435718
Other Std: 0.0006015059716535377
Other CI: (0.00038013312885172535, 0.0010102977425835982)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0561075565229
Johnson's SD: 0.012523546954499424
Johnson's CI: (0.049547441992806286, 0.062667671052943977)
Kansas based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.395653912693
Hillary's Std: 0.010024485549690425
Hillary's CI: (0.38972992916095378, 0.40157789622558521)
Trump's Mean: 0.53843113598
Trump's SD: 0.011534595605415848
Trump's CI: (0.53161475083182474, 0.54524752112805497)
Other Mean: 0.000659149513268
Other Std: 0.0001660379628363331
Other CI: (0.00056102915061128614, 0.00075726987592452907)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0652558018135
Johnson's SD: 0.016437758320796966
Johnson's CI: (0.055541885910517279, 0.0749697177165283)
Kentucky based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.369050876315
Hillary's Std: 0.01012860396436351
Hillary's CI: (0.36203224082975666, 0.37606951179929132)
Trump's Mean: 0.596808289752
Trump's SD: 0.006806321759214408
Trump's CI: (0.59209183607411309, 0.60152474342996276)
Other Mean: 0.00036953743184
Other Std: 0.00013308025022029565
Other CI: (0.00027731921797676445, 0.00046175564570248426)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0337712965016
Johnson's SD: 0.00013806888034872898
Johnson's CI: (0.033675621406949088, 0.033866971596248074)
Louisiana based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.421872562788
Hillary's Std: 0.006890009769311026
Hillary's CI: (0.41838580082850374, 0.42535932474732074)
Trump's Mean: 0.576883885061
Trump's SD: 0.010861208357173776
Trump's CI: (0.57138745626028875, 0.58238031386164746)
Other Mean: 0.000569477850528
Other Std: 0.00010220308160147071
Other CI: (0.00051775690542099726, 0.00062119879563415643)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000674074300592
Johnson's SD: 0.0004106695345988155
Johnson's CI: (0.00046625066041316944, 0.00088189794077118717)
Mississippi based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.43058880567
Hillary's Std: 0.014706315976923736
Hillary's CI: (0.41969441452291484, 0.44148319681662057)
Trump's Mean: 0.546440509162
Trump's SD: 0.008325704278984452
Trump's CI: (0.54027285445283157, 0.55260816387099043)
Other Mean: 0.000268970383792
Other Std: 0.00011774487246930567
Other CI: (0.00018174536440331116, 0.00035619540317981426)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0227017147845
Johnson's SD: 0.00011797121050101217
Johnson's CI: (0.022614322094662197, 0.022789107474397333)
Missouri based on Texas 4:55 pm
Hillary's Mean: 0.454432449248
Hillary's Std: 0.006453159689686279
Hillary's CI: (0.44178448866979675, 0.46708040982633831)
Trump's Mean: 0.544593349302
Trump's SD: 0.026532480649097148
Trump's CI: (0.49259064280953568, 0.5965960557950083)
Other Mean: 0.000406904555801
Other Std: 0.0002780465900655429
Other CI: (0, 0.00095186585835395224)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000567296893859
Johnson's SD: 0.00048795602804317905
Johnson's CI: (0, 0.0015236731348630666)
Montana based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.377651956443
Hillary's Std: 0.017423911337807695
Hillary's CI: (0.36237950541028918, 0.39292440747548174)
Trump's Mean: 0.550346192812
Trump's SD: 0.01689899225347863
Trump's CI: (0.5355338451889029, 0.565158540435309)
Other Mean: 0.00072001850745
Other Std: 0.00021646946217911538
Other CI: (0.00053027814450360257, 0.00090975887039657132)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0712818322376
Johnson's SD: 0.021430476755732404
Johnson's CI: (0.052497536305856587, 0.090066128169260476)
Nebraska based on Indiana
Hillary's Mean: 0.393675990239
Hillary's Std: 0.011382967944535824
Hillary's CI: (0.3845678862861821, 0.40278409419168215)
Trump's Mean: 0.56699120724
Trump's SD: 0.015207723109234699
Trump's CI: (0.55482271799898497, 0.57915969648095278)
Other Mean: 0.00035951252738
Other Std: 0.0002523684586810549
Other CI: (0.00015757941404272117, 0.00056144564071794424)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0389732899937
Johnson's SD: 0.02270200730877045
Johnson's CI: (0.020808234666155265, 0.057138345321281814)
Nebraska based on Indiana
Hillary's Mean: 0.38739126417
Hillary's Std: 0.009687517716808291
Hillary's CI: (0.38021478248578039, 0.39456774585397986)
Trump's Mean: 0.564454507755
Trump's SD: 0.011949776630342294
Trump's CI: (0.55560215200953822, 0.57330686349985971)
Other Mean: 0.000461337394718
Other Std: 0.00023503694121999443
Other CI: (0.00028722279146657203, 0.00063545199796919381)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0476928906807
Johnson's SD: 0.021008659086211988
Johnson's CI: (0.032129744212531411, 0.063256037148874913)
North Dakota based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.351024206102
Hillary's Std: 0.011476616751116293
Hillary's CI: (0.34096469282966863, 0.36108371937349298)
Trump's Mean: 0.565062469316
Trump's SD: 0.021272576801501828
Trump's CI: (0.5464165762528389, 0.58370836237816459)
Other Mean: 0.000839133245829
Other Std: 0.00022667963054172477
Other CI: (0.00064044344016978179, 0.0010378230514885688)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0830741913371
Johnson's SD: 0.02244128342363073
Johnson's CI: (0.063403900576808336, 0.10274448209736819)
Oklahoma based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.374790618668
Hillary's Std: 0.007718724353599492
Hillary's CI: (0.37000659165782729, 0.37957464567800564)
Trump's Mean: 0.624205071901
Trump's SD: 0.012369040441231122
Trump's CI: (0.61653880208140466, 0.63187134172110326)
Other Mean: 0.000467717827352
Other Std: 0.0001339854255874286
Other CI: (0.00038467432617200385, 0.00055076132853260529)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000536591603477
Johnson's SD: 0.0004569737757494125
Johnson's CI: (0.00025336152737430147, 0.00081982167958019061)
South Carolina based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.469357920125
Hillary's Std: 0.009754240997712748
Hillary's CI: (0.46383904014555949, 0.47487680010531214)
Trump's Mean: 0.529680073237
Trump's SD: 0.012691847200952296
Trump's CI: (0.52249911662089021, 0.53686102985256234)
Other Mean: 0.000448332724221
Other Std: 0.00011297736042585149
Other CI: (0.00038441093955479813, 0.00051225450888627358)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000513673913617
Johnson's SD: 0.0004115522361602333
Johnson's CI: (0.00028082059398426389, 0.00074652723325033146)
South Dakota based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.377402035799
Hillary's Std: 0.013882817840935813
Hillary's CI: (0.3652334330346198, 0.38957063856321766)
Trump's Mean: 0.549135127948
Trump's SD: 0.016386934792856977
Trump's CI: (0.53477161023065645, 0.56349864566445207)
Other Mean: 0.000734628362535
Other Std: 0.00020462534033501644
Other CI: (0.00055526963935847279, 0.00091398708571206527)
Johnson's Mean: 0.072728207891
Johnson's SD: 0.02025790869316661
Johnson's CI: (0.054971694296488779, 0.090484721485494399)
Tennessee based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.41918997481
Hillary's Std: 0.012779748680708514
Hillary's CI: (0.41163776473865543, 0.42674218488198912)
Trump's Mean: 0.578327147906
Trump's SD: 0.013889583882394684
Trump's CI: (0.57011907919444127, 0.58653521661758612)
Other Mean: 0.000976975199669
Other Std: 0.00021624130065239224
Other CI: (0.0008491871054353518, 0.0011047632939033699)
Johnson's Mean: 0.00150590208399
Johnson's SD: 0.0009042835118980418
Johnson's CI: (0.00097151449807077097, 0.0020402896699186772)
Texas based on Georgia
Hillary's Mean: 0.460355680995
Hillary's Std: 0.009718193448711913
Hillary's CI: (0.4559859285868903, 0.4647254334026622)
Trump's Mean: 0.53892596021
Trump's SD: 0.008306557734961435
Trump's CI: (0.53519094496744612, 0.54266097545308178)
Other Mean: 0.000327342436541
Other Std: 7.566561575304751e-05
Other CI: (0.00029331965150604291, 0.00036136522157542196)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000391016358419
Johnson's SD: 0.00033359325299124956
Johnson's CI: (0.00024101729447709405, 0.00054101542236088026)
Utah based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.371390755953
Hillary's Std: 0.010827102012237806
Hillary's CI: (0.36638898192478164, 0.37639252998170458)
Trump's Mean: 0.535839287668
Trump's SD: 0.023384674132508727
Trump's CI: (0.5250363178974069, 0.54664225743835004)
Other Mean: 0.00982005311501
Other Std: 0.004181130919075871
Other CI: (0.0078885046713915493, 0.011751601558627504)
Johnson's Mean: 0.00133278347582
Johnson's SD: 0.0010128145324902358
Johnson's CI: (0.0008648956311729768, 0.001800671320463076)
McMullin's Mean: 0.0816171197881
McMullin's SD: 0.020915638814322644
McMullin's CI: (0.071954765180888683, 0.091279474395212903)
West Virginia based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.379999736002
Hillary's Std: 0.01471041671424029
Hillary's CI: (0.37038910701663008, 0.38961036498828805)
Trump's Mean: 0.619022009811
Trump's SD: 0.01392569093153737
Trump's CI: (0.60992405891576684, 0.6281199607061998)
Other Mean: 0.000448285952261
Other Std: 0.00017151491367416448
Other CI: (0.00033623160105714621, 0.00056034030346571869)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000529968234296
Johnson's SD: 0.0005939851726214642
Johnson's CI: (0.0001419050523999269, 0.00091803141619251137)
Wyoming based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.315364114792
Hillary's Std: 0.017090773498049276
Hillary's CI: (0.29861546452962051, 0.33211276505372878)
Trump's Mean: 0.623692479338
Trump's SD: 0.019907285213526155
Trump's CI: (0.60418369831370333, 0.64320126036218139)
Other Mean: 0.000609434058704
Other Std: 0.00028860996005424395
Other CI: (0.00032660149506089905, 0.00089226662234676078)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0603339718117
Johnson's SD: 0.028572386045370123
Johnson's CI: (0.032333548011028987, 0.088334395612329253
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