Red State Final Call

As expected my model  is predicting a Trump win in every single red state.
Here is the list of states that I am calling red states.
Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia,  Idaho, Indiana,Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana,  Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming

I pulled all states except Missouri at 3 PM CST on 11/05.  I forgot to download Missouri, and didn't download it until 4:55 PM CST 11/05.

I am concerned with how my model attempted to predict other candidates besides Trump or Clinton.  Since polling data can include any variety of candidates, it's hard to get an idea of the support for third party and independent candidates.  In Utah, I think I didn't get a good prediction of the support for Evan Mcmullin because not all polls included him.  I don't think my prediction of percentages will be accurate in Utah, but I think Trump will still win there. Also I think the intervals aren't wide enough and don't reflect the volatility of the support between the two candidates.  But I think my numbers should be relatively similar in comparison to actual results.  Texas and Georgia are going to be really close, and probably closer than my model suggests.  I feel real confident that Trump will win all of these states. Nebraska awards its electors by congressional district.  There isn't enough polling with each district to run a prediction with my model, but I am calling that Trump will win all three districts.



Full Results: 
Note some confidence intervals were corrected to have a nonnegative beginning since probabilities can't be less than zero.


Alabama based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.393188770471
Hillary's Std: 0.004884039172571224
Hillary's CI: (0.38999792351153734, 0.39637961742975231)
Trump's Mean:  0.575111349764
Trump's SD: 0.009747199026261606
Trump's CI: (0.56874329674982438, 0.58147940277756882)
Other Mean: 0.000343605754035
Other Std:  0.0001310482799589912
Other CI: (0.00025798911771622866, 0.00042922239035325861)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0313562740116
Johnson's SD: 0.0001364326195419781
Johnson's CI: (0.031267139671417608, 0.031445408351830094)

Alaska based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.404585429143
Hillary's Std: 0.01707563754239364
Hillary's CI: (0.39342955094451543, 0.41574130734194986)
Trump's Mean:  0.518845322289
Trump's SD: 0.016895533096164546
Trump's CI: (0.5078071101667605, 0.52988353441215175)
Other Mean: 0.000666714871178
Other Std:  0.0006320553919129383
Other CI: (0.00025377960305015808, 0.0010796501393059632)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0759025336961
Johnson's SD: 0.01945616166796905
Johnson's CI: (0.063191408313930567, 0.088613659078335946)

Arkansas based on  Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.40651650871
Hillary's Std: 0.012808176039772442
Hillary's CI: (0.39764105863200661, 0.41539195878847113)
Trump's Mean:  0.592768516806
Trump's SD: 0.008152647331157323
Trump's CI: (0.58711912424827672, 0.59841790936310191)
Other Mean: 0.000342857596293
Other Std:  0.00015085641254669453
Other CI: (0.0002383213567553619, 0.00044739383583149855)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000372116887779
Johnson's SD: 0.0004758226868116182
Johnson's CI: (4.2394647096303693e-05, 0.00070183912846086434)

Georgia based on  Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.484878594052
Hillary's Std: 0.0037833149520454367
Hillary's CI: (0.48350163321355605, 0.48625555489051459)
Trump's Mean:  0.514644272505
Trump's SD: 0.004886024494625716
Trump's CI: (0.5128659737195379, 0.5164225712908358)
Other Mean: 0.000212339366093
Other Std:  6.403003420916513e-05
Other CI: (0.00018903523976215809, 0.00023564349242420027)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000264794076685
Johnson's SD: 0.0003475621414771496
Johnson's CI: (0.00013829668912439507, 0.00039129146424523518)

Idaho based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.356144455456
Hillary's Std: 0.014522979442189568
Hillary's CI: (0.34538587941869336, 0.36690303149256209)
Trump's Mean:  0.579015694083
Trump's SD: 0.017372916493267755
Trump's CI: (0.56614589392843828, 0.59188549423843528)
Other Mean: 0.000648398504609
Other Std:  0.00039050054782646605
Other CI: (0.00035911696613585853, 0.00093768004308285096)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0641914519563
Johnson's SD: 0.03865955423482011
Johnson's CI: (0.035552579647449956, 0.092830324265202158)

Indiana based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.405403236381
Hillary's Std: 0.006541524145700409
Hillary's CI: (0.40197663944683987, 0.40882983331482597)
Trump's Mean:  0.537793991661
Trump's SD: 0.009842825204096592
Trump's CI: (0.53263809925461936, 0.542949884066529)
Other Mean: 0.000695215435718
Other Std:  0.0006015059716535377
Other CI: (0.00038013312885172535, 0.0010102977425835982)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0561075565229
Johnson's SD: 0.012523546954499424
Johnson's CI: (0.049547441992806286, 0.062667671052943977)

Kansas based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.395653912693
Hillary's Std: 0.010024485549690425
Hillary's CI: (0.38972992916095378, 0.40157789622558521)
Trump's Mean:  0.53843113598
Trump's SD: 0.011534595605415848
Trump's CI: (0.53161475083182474, 0.54524752112805497)
Other Mean: 0.000659149513268
Other Std:  0.0001660379628363331
Other CI: (0.00056102915061128614, 0.00075726987592452907)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0652558018135
Johnson's SD: 0.016437758320796966
Johnson's CI: (0.055541885910517279, 0.0749697177165283)

Kentucky based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.369050876315
Hillary's Std: 0.01012860396436351
Hillary's CI: (0.36203224082975666, 0.37606951179929132)
Trump's Mean:  0.596808289752
Trump's SD: 0.006806321759214408
Trump's CI: (0.59209183607411309, 0.60152474342996276)
Other Mean: 0.00036953743184
Other Std:  0.00013308025022029565
Other CI: (0.00027731921797676445, 0.00046175564570248426)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0337712965016
Johnson's SD: 0.00013806888034872898
Johnson's CI: (0.033675621406949088, 0.033866971596248074)

Louisiana based on  Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.421872562788
Hillary's Std: 0.006890009769311026
Hillary's CI: (0.41838580082850374, 0.42535932474732074)
Trump's Mean:  0.576883885061
Trump's SD: 0.010861208357173776
Trump's CI: (0.57138745626028875, 0.58238031386164746)
Other Mean: 0.000569477850528
Other Std:  0.00010220308160147071
Other CI: (0.00051775690542099726, 0.00062119879563415643)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000674074300592
Johnson's SD: 0.0004106695345988155
Johnson's CI: (0.00046625066041316944, 0.00088189794077118717)

Mississippi based on Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.43058880567
Hillary's Std: 0.014706315976923736
Hillary's CI: (0.41969441452291484, 0.44148319681662057)
Trump's Mean:  0.546440509162
Trump's SD: 0.008325704278984452
Trump's CI: (0.54027285445283157, 0.55260816387099043)
Other Mean: 0.000268970383792
Other Std:  0.00011774487246930567
Other CI: (0.00018174536440331116, 0.00035619540317981426)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0227017147845
Johnson's SD: 0.00011797121050101217
Johnson's CI: (0.022614322094662197, 0.022789107474397333)

Missouri based on Texas 4:55 pm
Hillary's Mean: 0.454432449248
Hillary's Std: 0.006453159689686279
Hillary's CI: (0.44178448866979675, 0.46708040982633831)
Trump's Mean:  0.544593349302
Trump's SD: 0.026532480649097148
Trump's CI: (0.49259064280953568, 0.5965960557950083)
Other Mean: 0.000406904555801
Other Std:  0.0002780465900655429
Other CI: (0, 0.00095186585835395224)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000567296893859
Johnson's SD: 0.00048795602804317905
Johnson's CI: (0, 0.0015236731348630666)

Montana based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.377651956443
Hillary's Std: 0.017423911337807695
Hillary's CI: (0.36237950541028918, 0.39292440747548174)
Trump's Mean:  0.550346192812
Trump's SD: 0.01689899225347863
Trump's CI: (0.5355338451889029, 0.565158540435309)
Other Mean: 0.00072001850745
Other Std:  0.00021646946217911538
Other CI: (0.00053027814450360257, 0.00090975887039657132)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0712818322376
Johnson's SD: 0.021430476755732404
Johnson's CI: (0.052497536305856587, 0.090066128169260476)

Nebraska based on Indiana
Hillary's Mean: 0.393675990239
Hillary's Std: 0.011382967944535824
Hillary's CI: (0.3845678862861821, 0.40278409419168215)
Trump's Mean:  0.56699120724
Trump's SD: 0.015207723109234699
Trump's CI: (0.55482271799898497, 0.57915969648095278)
Other Mean: 0.00035951252738
Other Std:  0.0002523684586810549
Other CI: (0.00015757941404272117, 0.00056144564071794424)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0389732899937
Johnson's SD: 0.02270200730877045
Johnson's CI: (0.020808234666155265, 0.057138345321281814)

Nebraska based on Indiana
Hillary's Mean: 0.38739126417
Hillary's Std: 0.009687517716808291
Hillary's CI: (0.38021478248578039, 0.39456774585397986)
Trump's Mean:  0.564454507755
Trump's SD: 0.011949776630342294
Trump's CI: (0.55560215200953822, 0.57330686349985971)
Other Mean: 0.000461337394718
Other Std:  0.00023503694121999443
Other CI: (0.00028722279146657203, 0.00063545199796919381)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0476928906807
Johnson's SD: 0.021008659086211988
Johnson's CI: (0.032129744212531411, 0.063256037148874913)

North Dakota based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.351024206102
Hillary's Std: 0.011476616751116293
Hillary's CI: (0.34096469282966863, 0.36108371937349298)
Trump's Mean:  0.565062469316
Trump's SD: 0.021272576801501828
Trump's CI: (0.5464165762528389, 0.58370836237816459)
Other Mean: 0.000839133245829
Other Std:  0.00022667963054172477
Other CI: (0.00064044344016978179, 0.0010378230514885688)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0830741913371
Johnson's SD: 0.02244128342363073
Johnson's CI: (0.063403900576808336, 0.10274448209736819)

Oklahoma based on  Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.374790618668
Hillary's Std: 0.007718724353599492
Hillary's CI: (0.37000659165782729, 0.37957464567800564)
Trump's Mean:  0.624205071901
Trump's SD: 0.012369040441231122
Trump's CI: (0.61653880208140466, 0.63187134172110326)
Other Mean: 0.000467717827352
Other Std:  0.0001339854255874286
Other CI: (0.00038467432617200385, 0.00055076132853260529)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000536591603477
Johnson's SD: 0.0004569737757494125
Johnson's CI: (0.00025336152737430147, 0.00081982167958019061)

South Carolina based on  Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.469357920125
Hillary's Std: 0.009754240997712748
Hillary's CI: (0.46383904014555949, 0.47487680010531214)
Trump's Mean:  0.529680073237
Trump's SD: 0.012691847200952296
Trump's CI: (0.52249911662089021, 0.53686102985256234)
Other Mean: 0.000448332724221
Other Std:  0.00011297736042585149
Other CI: (0.00038441093955479813, 0.00051225450888627358)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000513673913617
Johnson's SD: 0.0004115522361602333
Johnson's CI: (0.00028082059398426389, 0.00074652723325033146)

South Dakota based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.377402035799
Hillary's Std: 0.013882817840935813
Hillary's CI: (0.3652334330346198, 0.38957063856321766)
Trump's Mean:  0.549135127948
Trump's SD: 0.016386934792856977
Trump's CI: (0.53477161023065645, 0.56349864566445207)
Other Mean: 0.000734628362535
Other Std:  0.00020462534033501644
Other CI: (0.00055526963935847279, 0.00091398708571206527)
Johnson's Mean: 0.072728207891
Johnson's SD: 0.02025790869316661
Johnson's CI: (0.054971694296488779, 0.090484721485494399)

Tennessee based on  Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.41918997481
Hillary's Std: 0.012779748680708514
Hillary's CI: (0.41163776473865543, 0.42674218488198912)
Trump's Mean:  0.578327147906
Trump's SD: 0.013889583882394684
Trump's CI: (0.57011907919444127, 0.58653521661758612)
Other Mean: 0.000976975199669
Other Std:  0.00021624130065239224
Other CI: (0.0008491871054353518, 0.0011047632939033699)
Johnson's Mean: 0.00150590208399
Johnson's SD: 0.0009042835118980418
Johnson's CI: (0.00097151449807077097, 0.0020402896699186772)

Texas based on  Georgia
Hillary's Mean: 0.460355680995
Hillary's Std: 0.009718193448711913
Hillary's CI: (0.4559859285868903, 0.4647254334026622)
Trump's Mean:  0.53892596021
Trump's SD: 0.008306557734961435
Trump's CI: (0.53519094496744612, 0.54266097545308178)
Other Mean: 0.000327342436541
Other Std:  7.566561575304751e-05
Other CI: (0.00029331965150604291, 0.00036136522157542196)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000391016358419
Johnson's SD: 0.00033359325299124956
Johnson's CI: (0.00024101729447709405, 0.00054101542236088026)

Utah based on Texas 
Hillary's Mean: 0.371390755953
Hillary's Std: 0.010827102012237806
Hillary's CI: (0.36638898192478164, 0.37639252998170458)
Trump's Mean:  0.535839287668
Trump's SD: 0.023384674132508727
Trump's CI: (0.5250363178974069, 0.54664225743835004)
Other Mean: 0.00982005311501
Other Std:  0.004181130919075871
Other CI: (0.0078885046713915493, 0.011751601558627504)
Johnson's Mean: 0.00133278347582
Johnson's SD: 0.0010128145324902358
Johnson's CI: (0.0008648956311729768, 0.001800671320463076)
McMullin's Mean: 0.0816171197881
McMullin's SD: 0.020915638814322644
McMullin's CI: (0.071954765180888683, 0.091279474395212903)

West Virginia based on  Texas
Hillary's Mean: 0.379999736002
Hillary's Std: 0.01471041671424029
Hillary's CI: (0.37038910701663008, 0.38961036498828805)
Trump's Mean:  0.619022009811
Trump's SD: 0.01392569093153737
Trump's CI: (0.60992405891576684, 0.6281199607061998)
Other Mean: 0.000448285952261
Other Std:  0.00017151491367416448
Other CI: (0.00033623160105714621, 0.00056034030346571869)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000529968234296
Johnson's SD: 0.0005939851726214642
Johnson's CI: (0.0001419050523999269, 0.00091803141619251137)

Wyoming based on Nebraska
Hillary's Mean: 0.315364114792
Hillary's Std: 0.017090773498049276
Hillary's CI: (0.29861546452962051, 0.33211276505372878)
Trump's Mean:  0.623692479338
Trump's SD: 0.019907285213526155
Trump's CI: (0.60418369831370333, 0.64320126036218139)
Other Mean: 0.000609434058704
Other Std:  0.00028860996005424395
Other CI: (0.00032660149506089905, 0.00089226662234676078)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0603339718117
Johnson's SD: 0.028572386045370123
Johnson's CI: (0.032333548011028987, 0.088334395612329253