Close Swing States

This group of states is close enough where new polling in the next few days could change how my model calls the state.  These states are Arizona, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, in the order of least likely to most likely to change under my model.  To be clear about when I pulled results time is included. All data is from Pollster (run by Huffington Post).  All times are from 11/05 and are in Central Standard Time.

Full Results:
Note some confidence intervals were corrected to have a nonnegative beginning since probabilities can't be less than zero.

1. Arizona 3pm - Trump, outside of confidence interval
The recent news from the FBI, and the fact that after the 2nd debate Arizona got less close, means Trump will probably win Arizona.  My main concern is that the hispanic vote (which leans towards Clinton) could  change the outcome of this state.  Polls are often based on likely voters which uses data from past elections, and if more hispanics vote in this election than ever before, the polls could be wrong. Republican have a lead in early voting, but it is close and not all registered Republican will vote for Trump.  But given the strong history of Republican wins in Arizona, and the polls, it seems like Trump will win. My model shows a Trump win, but a closer race than ever before.

2.  Florida 3pm - Clinton, outside of confidence interval
Florida is another close race.  Democrats have a small lead in early voting, but it is close.  My model shows a Clinton win by 3 percentage points, but I think personally it is closer than that. If Clinton can get Obama voters to turn out, she will win Florida.  She has a great ground game in Florida and I think she will  win there.

3. Iowa 3pm - Trump, outside of confidence interval
Iowa has been trending for Trump for the past month, but voting started in September, and early turnout for Republican was initially low. Now I think the race has stabilized and will be won by Trump.  This will also be a close race.

4.  North Carolina 4pm  -Clinton, outside of confidence interval
Like I have said before Clinton has a great ground game and organization. This will be close, but since President Obama and Michelle Obama have been to this state recently to get out the vote.  I think it is going to come down to the better run campaign. A recount could be likely here, maybe not on a statewide level, but in certain areas.

5. Nevada 4 pm - Clinton
I don't think Trump has enough support among Hispanics to win here.  Hillary Clinton has an ad with employees of the Trump Corporation talking about why they don't want him to be president.  The legalization of marijuana is on the ballot here, and I think that will draw out younger, more socially liberal voters who may not have otherwise voted.   I think there could be a recount in certain areas, because the race is so close.

6.  Ohio 4pm - My model - Clinton,  My personal opinion - Trump
Sometimes statistics don't work.  Normally they are right, and work well.  Since my model focuses on the average of polls which have mainly been Clinton leads before the the last few weeks.  So while the difference between my models two means is less than 1%, it is too big to call a Trump lead.  This doesn't mean my model is wrong or bad. Sometimes these things happen. If I had only included polls starting after the first debate, or did things different I could have gotten a result suggesting a Trump lead.  But to protect my research I decided this things in September.  This is a tough year.  Even the experts are making different calls than each other.  So while I think the FBI's announcements about both Hillary and Bill Clinton, and early voting data suggest that Trump will win Ohio, as a researcher I have to default to my model.  If a few new polls come out on Sunday or Monday with Trump leads it may tip the scales in my model, and I may post an update.  At the end of the day this was never about being right, but rather to test a model.  So while my gut tells me Trump will win Ohio, I have to admit that my model says Clinton will win.