As expected, all my blue states are showing a Clinton win. Here is my list of blue states: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington , Washington D.C. .
I pulled all states (except Oregon) at 6 PM CST 11/04. I forgot to download Oregon with the other states. The csv for Oregon was pulled at 9 PM CST 11/04. The data comes from Pollster (run by Huffington Post).
Washington D.C. was hard to predict, all the polls showed a Clinton lead by over 80 points. I don't think it will be that much of lead, and these polls weren't as scientific as others. My model shows that Johnson will get less than 1%, but this is because Johnson isn't included in all the polls, so his average is much lower than it should be. Overall, I think Johnson and other third party and independent candidates are going to be underestimated. Clinton should do fine in all of these states. My intervals may not as be as accurate in practice as they should be in theory.
Maine awards electors based on congressional districts. There isn't enough polling data to run a prediction with my model in each district. But based on trends and the poll data, I am calling a Clinton in the first district, and a Trump win in the second district.
Full Results:
Note some confidence intervals were corrected to have a nonnegative beginning since probabilities can't be less than zero.
California based on Washington
Hillary's Mean: 0.643981260157
Hillary's Std: 0.011788459691150548
Hillary's CI: (0.63881483483814383, 0.64914768547611568)
Trump's Mean: 0.35439115459
Trump's SD: 0.008447928387202108
Trump's CI: (0.35068875476389133, 0.3580935544164508)
Other Mean: 0.000744355997035
Other Std: 0.0001311334893556215
Other CI: (0.00068688526741278574, 0.00080182672665744727)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000883229255664
Johnson's SD: 0.0005885429486912348
Johnson's CI: (0.00062529367535148173, 0.0011411648359767553)
Connecticut based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.580005177032
Hillary's Std: 0.008468041245421245
Hillary's CI: (0.57373207955983563, 0.58627827450356762)
Trump's Mean: 0.419204988708
Trump's SD: 0.010102255857166162
Trump's CI: (0.41172127035587675, 0.42668870706079315)
Other Mean: 0.000397929164356
Other Std: 0.00017508437119380667
Other CI: (0.00026822723040622069, 0.0005276310983061283)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000391905095607
Johnson's SD: 0.0004904846440159411
Johnson's CI: (2.8555663171734311e-05, 0.00075525452804303271)
Delaware based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.596717526409
Hillary's Std: 0.01702757640668342
Hillary's CI: (0.58309287801026366, 0.61034217480722319)
Trump's Mean: 0.401460560223
Trump's SD: 0.015964917347335808
Trump's CI: (0.38868620053862418, 0.4142349199069148)
Other Mean: 0.000863153091932
Other Std: 0.00020904685562801525
Other CI: (0.00069588384358377055, 0.0010304223402804044)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000958760276555
Johnson's SD: 0.0005555959339843718
Johnson's CI: (0.00051419910875473223, 0.0014033214443551004)
Hawaii based on California
Hillary's Mean: 0.600529101565
Hillary's Std: 0.026376157366474206
Hillary's CI: (0.5746809423210707, 0.62637726080992107)
Trump's Mean: 0.330492029177
Trump's SD: 0.011578782803400526
Trump's CI: (0.31914503053717969, 0.34183902781665643)
Other Mean: 0.000811825360689
Other Std: 0.0002986761180839179
Other CI: (0.00051912814344531812, 0.0011045225779320296)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0681670438969
Johnson's SD: 0.0003152676677119398
Johnson's CI: (0.067858087259794711, 0.068476000534000062)
Illinois based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.608193674836
Hillary's Std: 0.00860764399907222
Hillary's CI: (0.59132300260625947, 0.62506434706610725)
Trump's Mean: 0.390575025393
Trump's SD: 0.024903371097511166
Trump's CI: (0.34176531494853613, 0.43938473583805138)
Other Mean: 0.000614079437418
Other Std: 0.0003640569301571484
Other CI: (0, 0.0013276179088481069)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000617220333105
Johnson's SD: 0.0005141628910999505
Johnson's CI: (-0.00039052041563792782, 0.0016249610818478582)
Maine based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.554920679955
Hillary's Std: 0.009962889471759483
Hillary's CI: (0.55003895381790491, 0.55980240609120591)
Trump's Mean: 0.444147536013
Trump's SD: 0.007917799598596812
Trump's CI: (0.44026788550001783, 0.44802718652504558)
Other Mean: 0.00044210514384
Other Std: 0.00014509311521836057
Other CI: (0.00037101082378212846, 0.00051319946389848201)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000489678889072
Johnson's SD: 0.0005983566104219639
Johnson's CI: (0.00019648953748786964, 0.00078286824065712621)
Maryland based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.65635635044
Hillary's Std: 0.012933730758001078
Hillary's CI: (0.64834008836658841, 0.66437261251253599)
Trump's Mean: 0.342515431404
Trump's SD: 0.013314944234577058
Trump's CI: (0.33426289511163193, 0.35076796769563817)
Other Mean: 0.000543028917037
Other Std: 0.000145322894559695
Other CI: (0.00045295850890915868, 0.00063309932516559576)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000585189239765
Johnson's SD: 0.00047522853022571117
Johnson's CI: (0.00029064495752208398, 0.00087973352200867191)
Massachusetts based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.646576616872
Hillary's Std: 0.010834247177274898
Hillary's CI: (0.64068716123918323, 0.65246607250391409)
Trump's Mean: 0.352305688688
Trump's SD: 0.011502467406263862
Trump's CI: (0.34605299107636112, 0.35855838630013137)
Other Mean: 0.000530441885137
Other Std: 0.00011871402493691301
Other CI: (0.00046590939189029384, 0.00059497437838459738)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000587252555068
Johnson's SD: 0.00043519934105186464
Johnson's CI: (0.00035067984554573164, 0.00082382526458984237)
Minnesota based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.54958154871
Hillary's Std: 0.009591672882884771
Hillary's CI: (0.54391333641875761, 0.55524976100112888)
Trump's Mean: 0.449007393545
Trump's SD: 0.01036292812884155
Trump's CI: (0.44288340690470307, 0.45513138018523203)
Other Mean: 0.00066946358295
Other Std: 0.00016678825408650576
Other CI: (0.0005708998346467349, 0.00076802733125381248)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000741594162139
Johnson's SD: 0.0005784501091473651
Johnson's CI: (0.00039975827401574602, 0.0010834300502618678)
New Mexico based on California
Hillary's Mean: 0.56329581395
Hillary's Std: 0.014829667575552168
Hillary's CI: (0.55453220148605564, 0.57205942641382279)
Trump's Mean: 0.434519880992
Trump's SD: 0.014338143627699602
Trump's CI: (0.42604673528136106, 0.44299302670218976)
Other Mean: 0.00101114791519
Other Std: 0.00028675818539558037
Other CI: (0.00084168777086786534, 0.00118060805951901)
Johnson's Mean: 0.00117315714309
Johnson's SD: 0.001056446261896771
Johnson's CI: (0.0005488487706343415, 0.0017974655155497418)
New Jersey based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.588651161087
Hillary's Std: 0.009598121454586763
Hillary's CI: (0.58297913800311185, 0.59432318417012808)
Trump's Mean: 0.409499016141
Trump's SD: 0.011324038290934098
Trump's CI: (0.40280706012767226, 0.41619097215433537)
Other Mean: 0.000859314144934
Other Std: 0.00018713682335640282
Other CI: (0.00074872538161494971, 0.00096990290825369873)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000990508627442
Johnson's SD: 0.0006625499370829645
Johnson's CI: (0.00059897383025338756, 0.0013820434246302287)
New York based on New Jersey
Hillary's Mean: 0.624806167053
Hillary's Std: 0.00944055513674717
Hillary's CI: (0.61967431712251009, 0.62993801698333529)
Trump's Mean: 0.373904862556
Trump's SD: 0.00914962169224297
Trump's CI: (0.36893116294104761, 0.37887856217011834)
Other Mean: 0.000615458641786
Other Std: 0.0001368080945357927
Other CI: (0.00054109028100077943, 0.00068982700257143488)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000673511749708
Johnson's SD: 0.0004983181338729853
Johnson's CI: (0.00040262790404490195, 0.00094439559537170094)
Oregon based on California 9PM
Hillary's Mean: 0.538824660206
Hillary's Std: 0.012220226410116905
Hillary's CI: (0.53283685929383773, 0.54481246111721493)
Trump's Mean: 0.404451547761
Trump's SD: 0.01203849539011549
Trump's CI: (0.39855279341330324, 0.41035030210964213)
Other Mean: 0.000894837899252
Other Std: 0.0005906034868711757
Other CI: (0.00060544750839955949, 0.001184228290105199)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0558289541337
Johnson's SD: 0.010526319359729506
Johnson's CI: (0.05067115242503948, 0.060986755842457753)
Rhode Island based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.545793847551
Hillary's Std: 0.015430193305687326
Hillary's CI: (0.53067253597410835, 0.56091515912774648)
Trump's Mean: 0.403677661193
Trump's SD: 0.006659121164802198
Trump's CI: (0.39715184236691037, 0.41020348001861107)
Other Mean: 0.000608607258022
Other Std: 0.00023607789792239015
Other CI: (0.00037725516928540802, 0.000839959346759216)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0499198839983
Johnson's SD: 0.0002447591833555822
Johnson's CI: (0.049680024406158353, 0.050159743590420726)
Vermont based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.65908302148
Hillary's Std: 0.02760872715221073
Hillary's CI: (0.63699184472108095, 0.68117419823919967)
Trump's Mean: 0.337771038269
Trump's SD: 0.02317095119302332
Trump's CI: (0.31923075657948585, 0.35631131995776744)
Other Mean: 0.00120345459908
Other Std: 0.0003957384142665961
Other CI: (0.00088680373677534096, 0.0015201054613869528)
Johnson's Mean: 0.00194248565215
Johnson's SD: 0.001411108191319475
Johnson's CI: (0.00081338468676746701, 0.0030715866175362303)
Washington based on California
Hillary's Mean: 0.593685476484
Hillary's Std: 0.016084741901446712
Hillary's CI: (0.58418017611954165, 0.60319077684780764)
Trump's Mean: 0.404736266484
Trump's SD: 0.01626792218952608
Trump's CI: (0.39512271547647382, 0.41434981749144395)
Other Mean: 0.000753853339173
Other Std: 0.00022486235389336474
Other CI: (0.00062097062166142024, 0.00088673605668530093)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000824403693193
Johnson's SD: 0.0007924387706438401
Johnson's CI: (0.00035611091104561338, 0.0012926964753407484)
Washington DC based on New York
Hillary's Mean: 0.947750549184
Hillary's Std: 0.0035602373862585286
Hillary's CI: (0.9452834758795372, 0.95021762248874553)
Trump's Mean: 0.051542459241
Trump's SD: 0.001866616184006367
Trump's CI: (0.050248983986963161, 0.052835934494970593)
Other Mean: 0.000364704565373
Other SD: 8.438852334586375e-05
Other CI: (0.00030622737675461189, 0.00042318175399086655)
Johnson's Mean: 0.000342287009519
Johnson's Std: 3.0089335815500844e-05
Johnson's CI: (0.00032143654672971638, 0.00036313747230856073)
No comments:
Post a Comment