Swing States I feel are safe for the leading party are Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia. My model shows Clinton winning all of these states. These races will all probably be close, be Clinton should win all of them. It would be highly unlikely for new polls to change the results of my model in these states.
I downloaded the csv files at 10 am 11/05 from Pollster (run by Huffington Post).
Since these are swing states I am going to give an analysis on every state. Overall I think Clinton is running the better campaign. She has the support of a president that is viewer more favorably than unfavorably. She has a strong ground game and the support of multiple celebrities that I think will help turn out the younger and minority votes.
Full Results:
Note some confidence intervals were corrected to have a nonnegative beginning since probabilities can't be less than zero.
1. Colorado - Clinton win, Outside of the confidence interval
Colorado has voted for a democrat for president since 2004. Colorado uses a mail-in ballot system (ballots can be dropped off in person) which I think will increase turnout. Johnson is getting enough support (around 5%) to make it harder for Trump to win. Regardless of the recent FBI document releases, Clinton should have no problem winning.
2. New Hampshire - Clinton win, outside of the confidence interval
I think New Hampshire is close, but most of the older polls show a Clinton lead which means on average she is leading in my model. New Hampshire doesn't have early voting (absentee is available as needed) so it is hard to tell how people will actually vote. There is a really close senate race in New Hampshire that may flip from a republican incumbent to the democrat. Because the democrats have a good chance to gain a senate seat here, they will (and have) spent effort and money trying to win this seat and the state's electors. So I think there will be a Clinton win here, however close the race will be.
3. Michigan - Clinton win, outside of the confidence interval
Michigan is getting closer over time. However, Clinton has a great ground game in the swing states and her celebrity surrogates should turn out the vote her. I don't think Trump has enough support from members of the Republican party to help him get out the vote. There is no early voting in Michigan. This will be a close race, but I think Clinton ground game and organization is why she will win this state and ultimately the presidency.
4. Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania has gotten closer since the FBI announcements. There is no early voting in Pennsylvania. But she is still leading in basically all the polls (some of the time it is in the margin of error). If the republican nominee was less controversial and more moderate, this would probably be a closer race. But Donald Trump doesn't have enough support among independents in my opinion to win in most swing states.
5. Virginia
Virginia has been showing a consistent Clinton lead. I think the area close to Washington D.C. will have a strong Clinton lead, because Trump doesn't have a lot of support among federal employees. Obama won Virginia twice. I think Clinton will win again.
6. Wisconsin
Wisconsin may be the home of Paul Ryan, but it has voted for a Democrat for president in every 21st century election. Like most of the states the race is getting closer, but I still think Clinton will win here. Wisconsin also has same-day registration that will probably benefit Clinton more than Trump. I don't think Paul Ryan will lose his seat, but I don't think Trump will win the votes of everybody who votes for a least one Republican
Full Results:
Colorado based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.471294699683
Hillary's Std: 0.004746435642928872
Hillary's CI: (0.46974422586373638, 0.47284517350209559)
Trump's Mean: 0.415064661232
Trump's SD: 0.006151607836034659
Trump's CI: (0.41305517293112315, 0.41707414953300392)
Other Mean: 0.058935930613
Other Std: 0.008229305583452357
Other CI: (0.056247740186133093, 0.061624121039913431)
Johnson's Mean: 0.054704708472
Johnson's SD: 0.0077782639740753
Johnson's CI: (0.052163855596758547, 0.057245561347236205)
Michigan based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.516253556871
Hillary's Std: 0.009037563625769775
Hillary's CI: (0.51263784481006636, 0.51986926893286012)
Trump's Mean: 0.442293032229
Trump's SD: 0.009428492613825277
Trump's CI: (0.4385209188721837, 0.446065145585541)
Other Mean: 0.015130517008
Other Std: 0.004747167974335746
Other CI: (0.013231289161518625, 0.017029744854453369)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0263228938917
Johnson's SD: 0.0038995691388233867
Johnson's CI: (0.024762769974077541, 0.027883017809299544)
New Hampshire based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.492744025978
Hillary's Std: 0.00466779451328252
Hillary's CI: (0.49153224985058147, 0.49395580210505935)
Trump's Mean: 0.43275346221
Trump's SD: 0.00556498611490036
Trump's CI: (0.43130877193826578, 0.43419815248115956)
Other Mean: 0.0382835487485
Other Std: 0.005947772316775469
Other CI: (0.036739485811923628, 0.039827611685165035)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0362189630639
Johnson's SD: 0.005857012985192196
Johnson's CI: (0.034698461573938841, 0.037739464553906435)
Pennsylvania based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.499431200071
Hillary's Std: 0.0033953724888021474
Hillary's CI: (0.49848051324353293, 0.50038188689843299)
Trump's Mean: 0.435130943208
Trump's SD: 0.0037467479683491486
Trump's CI: (0.43408187305387341, 0.43618001336161999)
Other Mean: 0.0384127761622
Other Std: 0.0047163530136822155
Other CI: (0.037092221584308589, 0.039733330740078322)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0270250805591
Johnson's SD: 0.003966667570309904
Johnson's CI: (0.025914434048155514, 0.028135727069998492)
Virginia based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.500227647747
Hillary's Std: 0.00515263724294697
Hillary's CI: (0.49866934077383424, 0.50178595472015575)
Trump's Mean: 0.418424814401
Trump's SD: 0.005782379618990899
Trump's CI: (0.41667605506545191, 0.42017357373671893)
Other Mean: 0.0396046559353
Other Std: 0.005760302314560753
Other CI: (0.037862573416945891, 0.041346738453629253)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0417428819166
Johnson's SD: 0.006042677016940509
Johnson's CI: (0.039915401096990238, 0.043570362736273516)
Wisconsin based on National
Hillary's Mean: 0.508592572807
Hillary's Std: 0.005190628103447107
Hillary's CI: (0.50655788397894475, 0.5106272616349038)
Trump's Mean: 0.449783183794
Trump's SD: 0.004841721322588826
Trump's CI: (0.44788526391113176, 0.45168110367731323)
Other Mean: 0.0150244708269
Other Std: 0.004100060835103732
Other CI: (0.013417276512683526, 0.016631665141174139)
Johnson's Mean: 0.0265997725719
Johnson's SD: 0.003358142358301173
Johnson's CI: (0.025283404956478558, 0.027916140187370035)
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