Martin O'Malley does not in my opinion have enough support to get a delegate due to a 15% threshold. I am reassigning his share, estimated to be about 5% percent with 3% to Sanders and 2% to Clinton, based on the average profile of a O'Malley voter and the profiles of a vote of the other two candidates. I have not been watching the democrat side of the process as much but I am releasing an official call.
Ranking: 44 Delegates at stake.
1. Clinton -
Although Bernie Sanders is putting up a very close race, I do not think he can win Iowa, however I think he can gain over 40% of the vote. The fact that Clinton's emails have been recently withheld due to classification issues I think will swing the vote.
Delegates - 24
Percentage Range - 53.28385-56.35697%
My Center Percentage : 54%
2. Sanders -
Sanders recent rise has increased his popularity. He does have a chance of winning but his primary draw of younger voters and in light of the possible winter weather I don't know if he can get the turnout he needs to win. However I think Sander is a force to be reckoned with and can win the election if he can appeal to minority voters.
Delegates -20
Percentage Range - 43.00412-47.50853%
My Center Percentage
3. O'Malley-
Due to the Democratic policy of only counting candidates with a 15% support at caucus I predict that O'Malley will not pass this process in most if not all caucus locations giving him 0 delegates. The polls place him at about I predict this supporters will split between Clinton and Sanders, with a larger number going to Sanders based on the demographics of O'Malley supporters. It is possible in a few locations O'Malley will make the 15% mark but he will probably not have enough support to get a single delegate.
Delegates - 0
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