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Disclaimer: While I am a paid undergraduate researcher for Texas Tech University, the opinions expressed on this blog are my own. The statements on this blog are not endorsements of views of Texas Tech University, The Honors College of Texas Tech University, or the math department of Texas Tech University, or any other department or campus organization of Texas Tech University.

Saturday, January 30, 2016

OFFICIAL Iowa Call Democrats

Martin O'Malley does not in my opinion have enough support to get a delegate due to a 15% threshold.  I am reassigning his  share, estimated to be about 5% percent with 3% to Sanders and 2% to Clinton, based on the average profile of a O'Malley voter and the profiles of a vote of the other two candidates. I have not been watching the democrat side of the process as much but I am releasing an official call.

Ranking: 44  Delegates at stake.
1. Clinton -
Although Bernie Sanders is putting up a very close race, I do not think he can win Iowa, however I think he can gain over 40% of the vote.  The fact that Clinton's emails have been recently withheld due to classification issues I think will swing the vote.
Delegates - 24
Percentage Range - 53.28385-56.35697%
My Center Percentage : 54%
2. Sanders -
Sanders recent rise has increased his popularity.  He does have a chance of winning but his primary draw of younger voters and in light of the possible winter weather I don't know if he can get the turnout he needs to win.  However I think Sander is a force to be reckoned with and can win the election if he can appeal to minority voters.
Delegates -20
Percentage Range - 43.00412-47.50853%
My Center  Percentage
3. O'Malley-
Due to the Democratic policy of only counting candidates with a 15% support at caucus I predict that O'Malley will not pass this process in most if not all caucus locations giving him 0 delegates. The polls place him at about  I predict this supporters will split  between Clinton and Sanders, with a larger number going to Sanders based on the demographics of O'Malley supporters. It is possible in a few locations O'Malley will make the 15% mark but he will probably not have enough support to get a single delegate.
Delegates - 0

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