OFFICIAL IOWA CALL GOP

Opening Notes: Since the Iowa process is weird and has multiple steps until the real delegates are chosen I think the lion's share of the delegates go to the top candidates since Rubio will probably get most of the votes of the "establishment"/moderate wing in his areas making it hard for the other more moderate candidates to get a delegate.  Carson and Paul get 2 and 1 delegates respectively because of

GOP
Delegate Ranking: (Not counting the non-bound 3 RNC members)

1. Cruz - My model actually puts the majority of the confidence interval with a Trump advantage, but the weather may be bad in parts of Iowa. My range is 25.31338-28.54439.  Looking at 2008 and 2012 I see that strong reliable conservatives normally win.  I also predict that Cruz will get the most delegates because when decisions have to be made at county conventions I think there will be some consolidation at the conventions following the caucuses.  There are essentially three wings of the party the conservative wing, the moderate wing and the Trump wing. Iowa is bound to proportional allocation but that doesn't mean it has to be exactly proportional.  So second ballots can happen with less candidates to help break ties.

Straw Poll Range -(26.31337881 - 29.54438775)
Delegates - 10 out of 27
My Center Percentage: 29.25%


2. Trump- Since there is a possibly of a snowstorm, and the fact Trump ditched the last debate I don't think he can win.  Trump is still pretty popular in the state so I think he will become a strong second.  Cruz is pulling support from more involved citizens in the republican party.  Trump has a base that is poorer, less educated than the average republican voter.

Straw Poll Range - (26.10459011 - 29.71628811)
Delegates- 8 out of 27
My Center Percentage -  28%


3.  Rubio
Rubio's draw is a mix of moderates and conservatives but I personally think he leans more moderate. He has  an endorsement from the Des Moines Register giving him the lead among more moderate "establishment" republican. He could be a wild card and get much more of the vote because of the his success in the last debate.  Although my range does not include this center 17.5 number it comes from a last minute decision to raise the number due to the last poll from the Des Moines Register and later polls.  Because of this I am assigning about half of the undecided votes the rest I think will mainly go to Ted Cruz.

Straw Poll Range - (14.81268703 - 16.29825324)
Delegates - 6
My Center Percentage -16.25%



4. Carson
Carson was doing really well in October/November but he had a few faux paus that split his vote between Trump and Cruz.  I still think he can pick up some delegates here and there.  Honestly his campaign shouldn't make it past March 1 and if it does it will be pretty much over.

Straw Poll Range - (8.889090212 -11.67925576)
Delegates - 2
My Center Percentage - 9.5%



5. Paul
Given his history and his ability to be the original  debate skipper and a strong personality and a stronger ground game I think he can get some votes with the same people who voted for his father in Iowa.

Straw Poll Range - (3.022284398 - 3.86111691)
My Center Percentage - 3.5%
Delegates - 1


6. Bush
Bush has the struggle of overcoming his family ties to politics in a year where a populist and non-experienced candidate like Trump can get a significant share of votes. Rubio's debate performance will probably hurt him. I am pulling a center outside of my calculated range because of the final poll and trend.

Straw Poll Range - (2.5-4.044822)
Delegates - 0
My Center Percentage -2.5%


7.. Christie
Christie didn't really spend as much time in Iowa as he did in New Hampshire.  Marco Rubio has the element of conservatism with moderate policies that makes him a better Iowan candidate.

Straw Poll Range -(2.491348072 - 3.378999056)
Delegates -0
My Center Percentage - 3%


8. Fiorina

She did well in the debate and her ability to attack Clinton  with being called sexist I think will help her in Iowa.  I don't think she can pull a delegate because of the process.

Delegates - 0
My Center Percentage - 2.75%
Straw Poll Range -(2.067145578 - 2.805242538)


9. Huckabee

Huckabee may have done well in Iowa in the past but the crowded field won't help him.

My Center Percentage - 2.25%
Delegates - 0
Straw Poll Range -(2.097198201 - 2.733258864)

10. Kasich

Iowa isn't the place for Kasich, I do think he will do much better in New Hampshire which has a more moderate climate.

My Center Percentage - 2%
Delegates - 0
Straw Poll Range -(1.779842263 - 2.446807669)

11. Santorum

He did do well in another cycle but I think he is having trouble and losing support. His visit to the Trump Rally may be hard to get past.

Delegates - 0
My Center Percentage - 0.9%
Straw Poll Range - (0.798901757 - 1.250383059)

12. Gilmore

His support is pretty low and he only made one debate and is struggling to make ballots.  I don't think he will do well.

Delegates - 0
My Center Percentage - 0.1
Straw Poll Range - (-0.046439701 - 0.295066167)

Also I would like to remind people that even if Trump wins he is far from the majority of the party.  Also the  weather and turnout will probably call this election.