Disclaimer:

Disclaimer: While I am a paid undergraduate researcher for Texas Tech University, the opinions expressed on this blog are my own. The statements on this blog are not endorsements of views of Texas Tech University, The Honors College of Texas Tech University, or the math department of Texas Tech University, or any other department or campus organization of Texas Tech University.

Wednesday, January 6, 2016

The Donald Trump Effect and a Brokered Convention

The thing that makes this race interesting is no one has gotten a 50.01% majority in any reputable poll in any state or a national poll.  But the thing is a lot of the early states use proportional delegate assignment or allow the candidates to group together to get a majority.  And in the end a candidate needs 50.01 to win the GOP nomination.  But here is the thing what if no one has a  majority?  Well then the candidates that have either dropped out or have not enough delegates to have a shot at winning will give their delegates in a brokered convention to candidates who did better than them that are at the top.  There  are really three groups of candidates: conservative, moderate, and Trump. Trump gets his own candidate because no candidate will give their delegates to him.  He is too dangerous for the party.  The Trump group has well Trump.  The conservative group has Cruz, Carson, Paul, Santorum, Huckabee,    The moderate group has Rubio, Christie, Bush, Kasich, Fiorina. And there is also Jim Gilmore who is technically running  but has very few supporters and isn't on any ballot right now so he doesn't really count.  Candidates like Carson and Kaisch may not make it much past Iowa and New Hampshire but they have a chance to have a delegate or two each because of proportional allocation.  If there is no majority candidate which I  believe is very likely at this point, then Kaisch will give his delegates to the leading moderate candidate (probably Rubio) and Carson will probably give this delegates to the leading conservative candidate (probably Cruz).  In the end the nomination will go to the winner of the moderate and conservative wing.  Remember in the national poll where Trump has the highest percentage the other candidates combined have the majority.

Feel free use the Contact form and comments, but overtly biased and inflammatory remarks will be removed.



Source : gop.org and elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster
I will have a full biblography for the real paper and presentation.

No comments:

Post a Comment