Disclaimer: While I am a paid undergraduate researcher for Texas Tech University, the opinions expressed on this blog are my own. The statements on this blog are not endorsements of views of Texas Tech University, The Honors College of Texas Tech University, or the math department of Texas Tech University, or any other department or campus organization of Texas Tech University.

Wednesday, January 6, 2016


My name  is Brittany Alexander.  I am a math major with a minor in economics at Texas Tech University.   This is the official blog of my predictions and comments for the 2016 election.  I am entering my second semester of college and I decided to start a undergraduate research project on presidential political statistics.  I will present my predictions at the Texas Tech Undergraduate Research Conference. I am a republican and I plan on voting for Marco Rubio.  I will avoid bias at all costs. This is were I set down my rules.

1.  I will not edit any posts, but I may change my predictions  in additional posts.
2.  All posts will be permalinked.
3.  All posts will be shared to my twitter @RaceTo2016Stats .
4.  I will live tweet election results on March 1, March 14, and November 8 and every primary night  I can.
5.  I will focus on the GOP nomination, because it has very interesting dynamics and will take most of my free time.  If I can I will try to get a prediction for each democratic primary too.
6.  I will read other predictions, but I will use my own math. (Combination of Bayesian and t-intervals)
7. For states without adequate polling I will use the states that already voted and/or have numerous polls, and previous elections to predict.
8. I will possibly take statistical liberty to exclude polls that I do not believe are valid.
9.  I will provide at least a weekly update.
10. All predictions for the case of tracking will be made final at 9 PM CST before the election.

My goal is to predict the republican nominee and possibly the democratic nominee.  I want a 80%  correct delegate assignment and a 90% correct prediction of leader in state polls.

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