My name is Brittany Alexander. I am a math major with a minor in economics at Texas Tech University. This is the official blog of my predictions and comments for the 2016 election. I am entering my second semester of college and I decided to start a undergraduate research project on presidential political statistics. I will present my predictions at the Texas Tech Undergraduate Research Conference. I am a republican and I plan on voting for Marco Rubio. I will avoid bias at all costs. This is were I set down my rules.
1. I will not edit any posts, but I may change my predictions in additional posts.
2. All posts will be permalinked.
3. All posts will be shared to my twitter @RaceTo2016Stats .
4. I will live tweet election results on March 1, March 14, and November 8 and every primary night I can.
5. I will focus on the GOP nomination, because it has very interesting dynamics and will take most of my free time. If I can I will try to get a prediction for each democratic primary too.
6. I will read other predictions, but I will use my own math. (Combination of Bayesian and t-intervals)
7. For states without adequate polling I will use the states that already voted and/or have numerous polls, and previous elections to predict.
8. I will possibly take statistical liberty to exclude polls that I do not believe are valid.
9. I will provide at least a weekly update.
10. All predictions for the case of tracking will be made final at 9 PM CST before the election.
My goal is to predict the republican nominee and possibly the democratic nominee. I want a 80% correct delegate assignment and a 90% correct prediction of leader in state polls.
No comments:
Post a Comment