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Disclaimer: While I am a paid undergraduate researcher for Texas Tech University, the opinions expressed on this blog are my own. The statements on this blog are not endorsements of views of Texas Tech University, The Honors College of Texas Tech University, or the math department of Texas Tech University, or any other department or campus organization of Texas Tech University.

Friday, September 30, 2016

Do endorsements matter to Trump Supporters?

USA Today came out with an editorial declaring Donald Trump unfit for the presidency.  USA Today is known to be one of the least biased media organizations. Many other local and national newspapers have called out Donald Trump.  No former presidents have endorsed him.  Very few senators and congressmen have endorsed him.  But yet Donald Trump could still pull off at least 40% or even 45% of the overall vote in November. The question is how is Donald Trump surviving as a candidate when so many people publically denounce him as "unfit for the presidency" or "inexperienced" or "unprepared".  I am going to look at this poll from The Economist/YouGov about Trump supporters opinions on the media and government. I  choose it because it is more comprehensive than most polls and has demographic breakdowns of every question.  In my analysis a Trump supporter is someone  who will likely vote for Trump in November.  And I am assuming that most Trump supporters is voting for him because they like him as candidate in general regardless of their opinions of the other candidates (88% of polled Trump supporters had a "very favorable" or "somewhat favorable" view of him).

The data is here: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/q8r0rkibs1/econTabReport.pdf

Since this is one poll you can't use these results as exact percentages of all Trump supporters but you can learn some things about the typical or average Trump supporter.

The Media

72% of polled Trump supporters (remember there is going to be some variability in this number) think the media is done a "worse than usual job" covering this election than previous elections. A 95% confidence interval would be (67.6%,76.4%) so we could safely say it is very likely that most Trump supporters do not think the media is doing a good job with this election.

For comparison 50% of Clinton supporters (and 58% overall) think the media has done a "worse than usual job")

The Government


6% of polled Trump supporters "Strongly approve" or "Somewhat approve" of Congress's job performance (the percentage for all responses was 13%, and 12% of republicans).  18% of polled Trump supporters were neutral.
A 95% confidence interval would be ( 3.8%,8.22%) for "strongly approve" or "somewhat approve" of the performance of congress.


95% of polled Trump supporters say the country is on the wrong track.
For comparison this number was 65% overall.

The  top 4 most important issue  (listed in order) of the Trump supporter in this poll are: Terrorism, Social Security, Immigration, The economy.

For comparison for all respondents the four top issues were : Social Security, the economy, Terrorism, Health Care.  For polled Clinton supporters they were : Social Security, the economy, health care, the environment/gun control (these were tied).

Conclusion

The typical Donald Trump supporter doesn't like the media coverage of the election, direction of this country, and Congress, more so than other people.  Because of this they may not care about endorsements as much as the usual voter.  Another interesting thing is that 51% of polled Trump supporters said they felt enthusiastic about Donald Trump, but only 38% of polled Clinton supporters felt enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton.   Since this is one  poll from a few days it's not going to give us the answers to the opinions of all Trump supporters but it can help to explain  Trump's consistent support regardless of his actions. These opinions may also explain why Trump won the primary with very few endorsements from politicians (compared to previous years).   Trump's supporters (especially those who have been with him since the primary) are not going to change their mind at this point.

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