Looking Forward to November

I wanted to reupdate my blog as I begin preparing for the November Election.  My rules and format will be very similar to what I did in the primary process. I am planning on Participating in the American Statistical Association's Prediction 2016 contest.  This means on top of generating a state by state call I will also predict turnout,and voting patterns among certain demographic groups. Information on the contest can be found here: http://thisisstatistics.org/electionprediction2016/ .

Prediction Rules
1. All states final call for accuracy purposes will by November 5th 10:59 PM CST.
2.  A report will be made with a current call of the election  after October 24th based on my submission to the Prediction 2016 contest.  It is expected that these numbers will change before my final call.  The exact date of this post is to be determine but it will be before the final call on November 5th.
3.  I will provide an weekly update every friday before the election excluding November 4th, 2016 . These subjects will include my thoughts on the election and possible predictions. These predictions may be more fluid and not exact calls (i.e. I think Clinton will win based on the information I have as of 9/2/16).
4.  My calls for my predictions will be broken up into multiple posts and a summary post will also be made.
5.  All calls will include a margin of error, but the electoral college elector assignment will be rounded to the nearest whole number.
6. After the election both the data from the primary  and the general election will be written into a paper to submit for publication.
7.  Posts will not be edited, but rather corrections will appear in the comments.





Prediction Methodology:
I am currently exploring the idea of using a python program to process Pollster files to create my model.  I am planning on using Bayesian ideology and possibly Bayes Rule.  Updates on my programming progress will be included.  If I can not get the program to work I will continue my method from the primary process and use excel for data processing.



Any edits to my methodology will be commented on this post.

Later today I will post my current views of the race in an article.