Is 2016 a repeat of 1992?

In 1992, Bill Clinton won the presidential election with 370 electors. The republican candidate was George Bush and he was running for re-election which historically is easier to win. But there was a third party candidate Ross Perot who got 18% of the popular vote.  Ross Perot was conservative and appealed to many traditional republicans.  Because of this Clinton was able to win states that are historically red: Kentucky, Tennessee, and Montana, and also he won most of the swing states. 

Fast forward to 2016: a Clinton, a strong 3rd party candidate, and a republican with personality are running.  Gary Johnson, the libertarian candidate, is polling around 10% when his name is included (often he is categorized under other).  I don't think that Johnson will win, or that he will even win a state.  But Johnson will have a major effect on the election.   If Johnson gets 5% of the vote in a swing state and his voters are conservative (at least economically) he  could lower the percentage that Donald Trump gets.  Trump is already struggling in some swing states like Florida and Colorado.  If Trump loses Michigan, Florida, and Pennsylvania it would be basically impossible for him to win.   Most national polls are within the margin of error, but on a state-by-state view Clinton is leading.

Johnson isn't perfect.  This week he didn't know the significance of Alepo in Syria. But since he and his running were republican governors in blue states they could make some ground. A lot of the swing states are going to be close and if conservative voters  vote for Johnson instead of Trump that could make 2016 deja vu of the 1992 election.