The states for Tuesday are very similar to New York and I used the New York results and poll data from each state (except Rhode Island which used Delaware polling). Trump should win every state since they are low turnout blue states which allows Trump to win all the states, but not necessarily all the delegates. Whether or not Trump reaches a majority on the first ballot is still a little to variable for me to make a definite call on the nomination. The only thing I know about a contested convention is that it will probably get messy and unpredictable. Kasich should come in second in most states because most conservatives in blue states vote for Trump. All of these states should have very similar outcomes because they have very similar demographics.
Delaware
Winner-Take-All
1. Trump
16 Delegates
0.582 +/- 0.0299
2. Kasich
0.2232 +/- 0.211
3. Cruz
0.195 +/- 0.0261
Connecticut
13 - At-Large awarded proportionally (winner takes all if over 50%)
15- from winner of 5 congressional districts
1. Trump
13 - At- Large , 15 Congressional Delegates, 28 total
0.542 +/- 0.0286
2. Kasich
0.274 +/- 0.0257
3. Cruz
0.184 +/- 0.204
Maryland
14 Winner-Take-All
24 from 8 Congressional Districts
1. Trump
14 from At-Large, 21 from 7 Congressional districts
0.464 +/- 0.04
2. Kasich
3 Delegates from 1 Congressional Districts
0.300+0.0274
3. Cruz
0.235 +/- 0.0376
Pennsylvania
17 Bound Winner-Take-All
54 Unbound elected delegates (no preference indictated on ballot)
I am not predicting the unbound delegates.
1. Trump
17 Bound Delegates
0.552 +/- 0.0402
2. Cruz
.315 +/- 0.0376
3. Kasich
0.132 +/- 0.0274
Rhode Island
13 At-Large awarded proportionally and 6 delegates awarded proportionally in 2 congressional districts
1. Trump
0.621 +/- 0.0301
10 Delegates ( 7 At-Large, 3 Congressional District)
2. Cruz
0.240 +/- 0.0265
4 Delegates (2 At-Large, 2 Congressional District)
3. Kasich
0.139 +/- 0.0214
3 Delegates (2 At-Large, 1 Congressional District)
Sunday, April 24, 2016
Sunday, April 17, 2016
New York GOP Call
New York has 95 delegates and is awarded by congressional district and with some delegates awarded proportionally (with a 50% trigger to get all the 14 at-large delegates).
New York Polling with Arizona Results
1. Donald Trump
92 Delegates (14 winner take all , 78 from 26 congressional districts)
0.650 +/- 0.0166
Donald Trump should do very well in his home state. I think he should win most of the districts. He will get over 50% and capture all the at-large delegates. It looks like Trump should get the nomination on the first ballot. But it depends on what the GOP rules committee decides on the the nomination rules. If Trump is a single delegate short of a majority then anything could happen.
2. Ted Cruz
3 Delegates (1 congressional district)
0.179 +/- 0.0133
Cruz may be able to pick up a district in a more conservative area like upstate New York but Trump should win the rest of the delegates. Cruz and Kasich are working to basically play defense and work on trying for a brokered convention.
3. John Kasich
0 Delegates
0.171 +/- 0.0131
Kasich's goal is play defense in proportional delegates. I think his presence is more beneficial to the anti-Trump campaign. Kasich will not be the nominee even if the convention goes brokered. Kasich at this point is probably hoping for VP or a high level position in the cabinet.
Note: I had trouble submitting it.
New York Polling with Arizona Results
1. Donald Trump
92 Delegates (14 winner take all , 78 from 26 congressional districts)
0.650 +/- 0.0166
Donald Trump should do very well in his home state. I think he should win most of the districts. He will get over 50% and capture all the at-large delegates. It looks like Trump should get the nomination on the first ballot. But it depends on what the GOP rules committee decides on the the nomination rules. If Trump is a single delegate short of a majority then anything could happen.
2. Ted Cruz
3 Delegates (1 congressional district)
0.179 +/- 0.0133
Cruz may be able to pick up a district in a more conservative area like upstate New York but Trump should win the rest of the delegates. Cruz and Kasich are working to basically play defense and work on trying for a brokered convention.
3. John Kasich
0 Delegates
0.171 +/- 0.0131
Kasich's goal is play defense in proportional delegates. I think his presence is more beneficial to the anti-Trump campaign. Kasich will not be the nominee even if the convention goes brokered. Kasich at this point is probably hoping for VP or a high level position in the cabinet.
Note: I had trouble submitting it.
Sunday, April 3, 2016
Wisconsin GOP Call
Wisconsin is a hybrid state. The winner state-wide gets 3 delegates, the winner in each congressional district gets 3 delegates and the 14 at-large delegates are distributed proportionally.
1. Ted Cruz
0.425+/- 0.0178
Delegates : 3 winner takes all, 6 proportional, and 24 from 8 congressional district
This is a tricky call because Cruz has not won a blue state before but the polls suggest Cruz will win. I think some of the recent Trump events will encourage a high turnout for Cruz. I think I lot of republicans right now hate all their opinions. Cruz has the advantage of being the one non-Trump candidate with a shot of the nomination although his chance of winning the nomination is small. Cruz is beginning to act like Trump and I think is beginning to attract some of Trump's less dedicated supporters and Cruz is working on increasing turnout.
2. Donald Trump
0.330 +/- 0.169
Trump is trying to double down on his strong message to keep his supporters willing to vote and stay in the media. Trump has to say more inflammatory remarks to keep getting media attention. His goal is to cater to a few strong supporters and use them and the generally low primary and caucus turnout rates to get the nomination. Trump knows what to say to get people motivated. He caters to fear and the poll data on the issues. Arguably he has been fighting a war of attrition and that strategy may get him the nomination. Personally I don't think he wants to be president.. He probably wants the publicity more than the presidency. But that is just my opinion.
3. John Kasich
0.245 +/- 0.0155
Delegates: 3 Proportional
Kasich is not going to get the nomination. But he can act as sort of a defense between Trump and the nomination. Kasich can pick up delegates here and there and his delegates if picked correctly will probably only support Trump on the later ballots if Trump is really the only opinion. Kasich's strategy should be to focus on proportional states and to focus on people not attracted to Cruz: more moderate, or more establishment voters. Kasich goal isn't to win but to prevent Trump from winning.
1. Ted Cruz
0.425+/- 0.0178
Delegates : 3 winner takes all, 6 proportional, and 24 from 8 congressional district
This is a tricky call because Cruz has not won a blue state before but the polls suggest Cruz will win. I think some of the recent Trump events will encourage a high turnout for Cruz. I think I lot of republicans right now hate all their opinions. Cruz has the advantage of being the one non-Trump candidate with a shot of the nomination although his chance of winning the nomination is small. Cruz is beginning to act like Trump and I think is beginning to attract some of Trump's less dedicated supporters and Cruz is working on increasing turnout.
2. Donald Trump
0.330 +/- 0.169
Trump is trying to double down on his strong message to keep his supporters willing to vote and stay in the media. Trump has to say more inflammatory remarks to keep getting media attention. His goal is to cater to a few strong supporters and use them and the generally low primary and caucus turnout rates to get the nomination. Trump knows what to say to get people motivated. He caters to fear and the poll data on the issues. Arguably he has been fighting a war of attrition and that strategy may get him the nomination. Personally I don't think he wants to be president.. He probably wants the publicity more than the presidency. But that is just my opinion.
3. John Kasich
0.245 +/- 0.0155
Delegates: 3 Proportional
Kasich is not going to get the nomination. But he can act as sort of a defense between Trump and the nomination. Kasich can pick up delegates here and there and his delegates if picked correctly will probably only support Trump on the later ballots if Trump is really the only opinion. Kasich's strategy should be to focus on proportional states and to focus on people not attracted to Cruz: more moderate, or more establishment voters. Kasich goal isn't to win but to prevent Trump from winning.
Sunday, March 20, 2016
March 22 Call
There are two states with republican elections on March 22: Arizona and Utah. Arizona has a winner-take all system with no minimum to win all the delegates. Utah is proportional but if a candidate has a majority that person will take all the delegates. I will break down the dynamics for both the states.
Arizona
Model - Nevada Results and an Arizona poll
The results from Florida and Nevada show that it is likely Trump will win because of the fact that the Rubio vote will be split between Kasich and Cruz. Since the poll data is limited and before Rubio's campaign suspension, I decided to use a rough 0.1/0.7/0.2 (Trump, Cruz, Kasich) split of Rubio's poll numbers. The lack of applicable poll data has been a struggle in recent contests in some states. Trump has a advantage because of his strong immigration stance that should help him win over voters who fear the competition by immigrants. Cruz should do well but not well enough to win. Kasich may win over Hispanic voters but they don't make a huge part of the republican party in this state.
Results:
1.Trump 69 Delegates 0.464 +/- 0.0308
2. Cruz .394 +/- 0.0301
3. Kasich 0.141 +/- 0.0215
Utah
Model - Idaho results and a Utah poll
Utah has a high Mormon population which according to exit polls from Idaho supported Rubio or Cruz in high numbers. Since Mitt Romney endorsed Cruz this will influence a large number of Mormon voters who represent most of the republican electorate in Utah. Therefore, most of the Rubio support should go to Cruz given the Romney endorsement and Cruz should reach a majority of the vote and win all of the delegates..
Results:
1. Cruz 40 Delegates 0.633 +/- 0.0552
2. Trump 0.288 +/- 0.0518
3. Kasich 0.0794 +/- 0.0310
Arizona
Model - Nevada Results and an Arizona poll
The results from Florida and Nevada show that it is likely Trump will win because of the fact that the Rubio vote will be split between Kasich and Cruz. Since the poll data is limited and before Rubio's campaign suspension, I decided to use a rough 0.1/0.7/0.2 (Trump, Cruz, Kasich) split of Rubio's poll numbers. The lack of applicable poll data has been a struggle in recent contests in some states. Trump has a advantage because of his strong immigration stance that should help him win over voters who fear the competition by immigrants. Cruz should do well but not well enough to win. Kasich may win over Hispanic voters but they don't make a huge part of the republican party in this state.
Results:
1.Trump 69 Delegates 0.464 +/- 0.0308
2. Cruz .394 +/- 0.0301
3. Kasich 0.141 +/- 0.0215
Utah
Model - Idaho results and a Utah poll
Utah has a high Mormon population which according to exit polls from Idaho supported Rubio or Cruz in high numbers. Since Mitt Romney endorsed Cruz this will influence a large number of Mormon voters who represent most of the republican electorate in Utah. Therefore, most of the Rubio support should go to Cruz given the Romney endorsement and Cruz should reach a majority of the vote and win all of the delegates..
Results:
1. Cruz 40 Delegates 0.633 +/- 0.0552
2. Trump 0.288 +/- 0.0518
3. Kasich 0.0794 +/- 0.0310
Sunday, March 13, 2016
March 15 Call
This group of states includes winner-takes-all and hybrid states. The dynamics of this kind of system will affect the voting results. Rubio is basically saying that his supporters in Ohio should vote for Kaisch to prevent Trump from getting those delegates. Others are telling Kasich supporters in Florida to vote for Rubio to prevent Trump from getting those delegates. I think Rubio has recovered from his "name calling" debate. Cruz should do well in Missouri.
Delegate Allocation Rules
Ohio and Florida - Winner Takes All. Highest number of votes wins all the delegates.
Missouri, Illinois, North Carolina - The RNC delegates are unpledged. In North Carolina it is proportional with no lower limit. In Illinois the winner gets the 12 winner take all delegates and the winner in each of congressional districts will take the 3 delegates of that district. In Missouri the winner gets 9 delegates and the winner of each district gets 5 delegates for that district.
What this day means to all the Candidates.
Donald Trump
Mathematically Trump can't win it on Tuesday but he can make it much harder for any other candidates to get the nomination. After March 15th Trump will likely have more delegates than all the other candidates combined and it will be hard to avoid a Trump nomination. Even if he doesn't get the 1237 delegates needed for nomination he will probably have the most delegates by a large margin and will likely be the best choice for the GOP since they can't afford to alienate those voters.
Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz won't win Florida or Ohio but he will likely win Missouri and get the highest proprtion of those delegates. He should get delegates in North Carolina and delegates from a few districts in Illinois. Most of the conservative evangelical heavy states will have voted by Tuesday, but he can get a few delegates in proportional states and states that use other methods.
Marco Rubio
Rubio is a middle-ground candidate that has a diverse field of supporters. He should win in Florida because of momentum from the debate in his home state and a change in dynamics since Georgia, which is the model state for Florida. In other states he won't perform as well because he is not the frontrunner and the rules for delegate allocation do not favor him.
John Kasich
Kasich should win in Ohio because of his performance in Michigan and his hometown advantage. Looking forward to other states he has a chance to win in the future blue states or swing states.
State Calls
------------------
Florida
The home field advantage should help Rubio and his strong debate performance on Thursday should help him clinch the win. I used Florida polls and Georgia results for this call.
1. Rubio 99 Delegates 0.364 +/- 0.0152
2. Trump 0.362 +/- 0.0152
3. Cruz 0.205 +/- 0.0127
4. Kasich 0.0685 +/- 0.00801
Ohio
The home field advantage and Rubio's move to tell his supports to vote Kasich in Ohio to prevent a Trump victory should help Kasich. I used Ohio polls and the results for Michigan.
1. Kasich 72 Delegates 0.446+/- 0.0199
2. Trump 0.292 +/- 0.0182
3. Cruz 0.152 +/- 0.0144
4. Rubio 0.111 +/- 0.126
North Carolina
The delegates are basically proportional and I used a North Carolina poll and Virginia results.
1. Trump 29 Delegates 0.376 +/- 0.0257
2. Rubio 23 Delegates 0.330 +/- 0.0249
3. Cruz 14 Delegates 0.199 +/- 0.0212
4. Kasich 6 Delegates 0.094 +/- 0.0155
Illinois
I used Illinois polls and Michigan results. Based on 2012 results and 2008 results I think Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio can get votes in places where similar candidates had a strong lead.
1. Trump 39 Delegates 0.435 +/- 0.0312
2. Cruz 12 Delegates 0.287 +/- 0.0285
3. Kasich 12 Delegates 0.176 +/- 0.0240
4. Rubio 3 Delegates 0.101 +/- 0.0190
Missouri
Cruz should easily win Missouri. Similar to the method I used for Illinois I checked past results and polling trends to find districts that Rubio, Trump and Kasich can win.
1. Cruz 34 Delegates 0.441 +/- 0.0688
2. Trump 5 Delegates 0.213 +/- 0.0568
3. Rubio 5 Delegates 0.196 +/- 0.0551
4. Kasich 5 Delegates 0.150 +/- 0.0495
Sunday, March 6, 2016
March 8 GOP
Summary
Trump should do pretty good given his history and should win every state. Cruz should be a strong second in all of the states besides Hawaii where he should be third. Rubio and Kaisch are honestly getting to a point where only one of them can stay in. Idaho because of its high Mormon population should be very good for both Cruz and Rubio who based on certain precincts in Nevada did very well with Mormons.
The States:
Michigan 15% Cutoff 59 Delegates, Used Michigan poll and Massachusetts results.
1. Trump 28 Delegates 0.402 +/- 0.0270
2. Cruz 17 Delegates 0.255 +/- 0.0240
3. Rubio 14 Delegates 0.208 +/- 0.0223
4. Kaisch 0.135 +/- 0.0188
Mississippi 15% Cutoff 40 Delegates. Used Alabama results and Mississippi poll
1.Trump 21 Delegates 0.452 +/- 0.0459
2. Cruz 19 Delegates 0.390 +/- 0.0450
3. Rubio 0.0962 +/- 0.0450
4. Kaisch 0.0617 +/- 0,0222
Idaho 20% Cutoff 32 Delegates . Used Minnesota results and the final Des Moines Register poll from Iowa
1. Rubio 12 Delegates 0.337 +/- 0.0385
2. Cruz 11 Delegates 0.310 +/- 0.0377
3. Trump 9 Delegates 0.267 +/- 0.03604
4. Kaisch 0.0864 +/- 0.022907
Hawaii No cutoff , 19 Delegates. Used Massachusetts results and polls
1. Trump 10 Delegates 0.512 +/- 0.0494
2. Kaisch 4 Delegates 0.217 +/- 0.0408
3. Rubio 3 Delegates 0.148 +/- 0.0351
4. Cruz 2 Delegates 0,122 +/- 0.0325
.
Trump should do pretty good given his history and should win every state. Cruz should be a strong second in all of the states besides Hawaii where he should be third. Rubio and Kaisch are honestly getting to a point where only one of them can stay in. Idaho because of its high Mormon population should be very good for both Cruz and Rubio who based on certain precincts in Nevada did very well with Mormons.
The States:
Michigan 15% Cutoff 59 Delegates, Used Michigan poll and Massachusetts results.
1. Trump 28 Delegates 0.402 +/- 0.0270
2. Cruz 17 Delegates 0.255 +/- 0.0240
3. Rubio 14 Delegates 0.208 +/- 0.0223
4. Kaisch 0.135 +/- 0.0188
Mississippi 15% Cutoff 40 Delegates. Used Alabama results and Mississippi poll
1.Trump 21 Delegates 0.452 +/- 0.0459
2. Cruz 19 Delegates 0.390 +/- 0.0450
3. Rubio 0.0962 +/- 0.0450
4. Kaisch 0.0617 +/- 0,0222
Idaho 20% Cutoff 32 Delegates . Used Minnesota results and the final Des Moines Register poll from Iowa
1. Rubio 12 Delegates 0.337 +/- 0.0385
2. Cruz 11 Delegates 0.310 +/- 0.0377
3. Trump 9 Delegates 0.267 +/- 0.03604
4. Kaisch 0.0864 +/- 0.022907
Hawaii No cutoff , 19 Delegates. Used Massachusetts results and polls
1. Trump 10 Delegates 0.512 +/- 0.0494
2. Kaisch 4 Delegates 0.217 +/- 0.0408
3. Rubio 3 Delegates 0.148 +/- 0.0351
4. Cruz 2 Delegates 0,122 +/- 0.0325
.
Thursday, March 3, 2016
March 5 GOP Call
There are 4 states either with primaries or caucuses on March 1. The races will be called with a March 1 state as the hypothesis probability and B as the a poll from that or a very similar state.
For the purposes of this call I am including Ben Carson because he has not officially quit and I think some of his supporters will be confused and still vote.
Candidate Summaries:
Trump
Trump did win the most states so far but by Sunday Cruz/Rubio combined should have more delegates than him. Considering I think you could cap him at 35%-40% it may not be detrimental to not nominate him in a brokered convention because a lot of republicans and independents will not either vote for Trump or vote at all if he is nominated making it a catch-22 scenario.
Cruz
March 8 is the end of the states Cruz will have a pretty good finish because the rest of the calendar after that is mostly blue or swing states. It actually may be logical for him to drop out after March 8 and endorse Rubio to prevent a Trump nomination.
Rubio
Rubio should do well in Maine and decent in the other states. I would look forward to the later contests with blue states where he really will shine.
Kaisch
Although he did get a strong second in Vermont, I don't think he can take Ohio and if he doesn't want Trump as a president he should drop out. His draw is very limited to strong blue states.
Carson
Carson needs to officially drop out considering he got only a small handful of delegates on super tuesday. I am doing my analysis with him because he hasn't dropped out and I don't think a lot of his supporters know he isn't really campaigning anymore.
States:
Maine: Vermont results, and a poll from Vermont, Delegate Cutoff - 10%
1. Trump 9 Delegates 0.35848 +/- 0.07805
2. Kaisch 7 Delegates 0.29232 +/- 0.07403
3.Rubio 5 Delegates 0.10385 +/- 0.04965
4.Cruz 2 Delegates 0.19901 +/- 0.06498
5. Carson 0.04635 +/- 0.03422
Louisiana: Alabama results, Georgia poll, Delegate Cutoff -20%
1. Trump 16 Delegates 0.32034 +/- 0.04009
2. Cruz 15 Delegates 0.29655 +/- 0.03924
3. Rubio 15 Delegates 0.28982 +/- 0.03897
4. Carson 0.05731 +/- 0.01997
5. Kaisch 0.03598 +/- 0.016
Kentucky: Tennessee results, Georgia poll. Delegate Cutoff- 5%
1. Trump 24 delegates 0.50602 +/- 0.04295
2. Rubio 10 delegates 0.20445 +/- 0.03465
3. Cruz 8 delegates 0.16896 +/- 0.03219
4.Carson 4 delegates 0.08414 +/- 0.02385
5. Kaisch 0.03643 +/- 0.01609
Kansas:Arkansas result, Georgia poll. Delegate Cutoff - 10%
1. Cruz 15 delegates 0.3383 +/- 0.0406
2. Trump 15 delegates 0.3343 +/- 0.0405
3. Rubio 10 delegates 0.2251 +/- 0.0359
4. Carson 0.0515 +/- 0.019
5. Kaich 0.0509 +/- 0.0189
For the purposes of this call I am including Ben Carson because he has not officially quit and I think some of his supporters will be confused and still vote.
Candidate Summaries:
Trump
Trump did win the most states so far but by Sunday Cruz/Rubio combined should have more delegates than him. Considering I think you could cap him at 35%-40% it may not be detrimental to not nominate him in a brokered convention because a lot of republicans and independents will not either vote for Trump or vote at all if he is nominated making it a catch-22 scenario.
Cruz
March 8 is the end of the states Cruz will have a pretty good finish because the rest of the calendar after that is mostly blue or swing states. It actually may be logical for him to drop out after March 8 and endorse Rubio to prevent a Trump nomination.
Rubio
Rubio should do well in Maine and decent in the other states. I would look forward to the later contests with blue states where he really will shine.
Kaisch
Although he did get a strong second in Vermont, I don't think he can take Ohio and if he doesn't want Trump as a president he should drop out. His draw is very limited to strong blue states.
Carson
Carson needs to officially drop out considering he got only a small handful of delegates on super tuesday. I am doing my analysis with him because he hasn't dropped out and I don't think a lot of his supporters know he isn't really campaigning anymore.
States:
Maine: Vermont results, and a poll from Vermont, Delegate Cutoff - 10%
1. Trump 9 Delegates 0.35848 +/- 0.07805
2. Kaisch 7 Delegates 0.29232 +/- 0.07403
3.Rubio 5 Delegates 0.10385 +/- 0.04965
4.Cruz 2 Delegates 0.19901 +/- 0.06498
5. Carson 0.04635 +/- 0.03422
Louisiana: Alabama results, Georgia poll, Delegate Cutoff -20%
1. Trump 16 Delegates 0.32034 +/- 0.04009
2. Cruz 15 Delegates 0.29655 +/- 0.03924
3. Rubio 15 Delegates 0.28982 +/- 0.03897
4. Carson 0.05731 +/- 0.01997
5. Kaisch 0.03598 +/- 0.016
Kentucky: Tennessee results, Georgia poll. Delegate Cutoff- 5%
1. Trump 24 delegates 0.50602 +/- 0.04295
2. Rubio 10 delegates 0.20445 +/- 0.03465
3. Cruz 8 delegates 0.16896 +/- 0.03219
4.Carson 4 delegates 0.08414 +/- 0.02385
5. Kaisch 0.03643 +/- 0.01609
Kansas:Arkansas result, Georgia poll. Delegate Cutoff - 10%
1. Cruz 15 delegates 0.3383 +/- 0.0406
2. Trump 15 delegates 0.3343 +/- 0.0405
3. Rubio 10 delegates 0.2251 +/- 0.0359
4. Carson 0.0515 +/- 0.019
5. Kaich 0.0509 +/- 0.0189
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